Thread by @cfb_professor

So #CFBPlayoff rankings, were u surprised? Its a predictable process unchanged for 10 yrs. @CFBMatrix & I have projected better than any entity & have done so for a decade. We've been off only an avg of 0.68 places per team for the entire Top 15 this season. Let’s take a look.🧵

15 #TAMU #GigEm

Projected 15. Spot on. This is where the #Aggies will stay until that big #Texas game (more on that later). SOS 31, 3 QWs, 2 T25Ws. Those are all good enuf to be ranked higher but game control is low at 12.2 (2nd lowest in the poll).

14 #BYU #Cougars

Projected 12. Ok, so this is the only team that may have a gripe this week. Just a small one though. Typically, w/similar resumes the committee will give credence to head 2 head results. #BYU beat #SMU head 2 head (cont)

...(#BYU cont) so it was a bit odd they fell below them. They must feel the resumes are dis-similar enough to justify it. SOS at 100 & the worst game control in the poll (12.1) make that justifiable. They do have 3 QWs & 2 T25Ws.

13 #SMU #PonyUp

Projected 13. Bingo. So what separates #Miami from #SMU? Both have similar SOS (82 vs 91), QWs (4 vs 2), T25Ws (1 vs 1) so why is #SMU outside the Top 12? Game control. Its one of the most important metrics & #SMU has the 3rd worst in the poll at 17.5.

12 #BoiseState #Broncos

Projected 14. Very similar profile to #SMU. SOS 87, 4 QWs, 1 T25W, & a game control of 18.9. If the Big 12 champion ends with 1 L, I would expect Boise to drop out of the bye round based on past behavior; but for now the #Broncos have that 1st round bye.

11 #Tennessee #Vols

Projected 11. I warned #Vols fans last week an L vs #UGA would drop them out of contention & thats exactly what happened. Unless there is a major shakeup the #Vols will be sitting this first expanded playoffs out. SOS 90, 1 QW, 1 T25W, & GC 21.1 will do that.

10 #Georgia #GoDawgs

Projected 10. Surprised yet? #UGA has a great profile, SOS 17, 3 QW, 3 T25W. Only fly in the ointment is game control (12.3). The L to both #Alabama & #OleMiss will keep them here, but they should be in the playoff albeit traveling for the holidays.

9 #OleMiss #HottyToddy

Projected 9. That W vs #UGA is huge. It likely sealed #OleMiss as a playoff team. The profile is just ok (SOS 75, 3 QW, 2 T25W) but they have the 2nd highest game control in the poll at 27.8 which helps overcome that bad L to #Kentucky.

8 #Miami #Canes

Projected 7. Right near where projected. So why did the 1 L #Canes slip below 2 L #Bama? It was extremely close in the model & not a surprise the committee made the jump. Compare the profiles: SOS 91, 2 QW, 1 T25W, Game control 21.9. Now see #Alabama.

7 #Alabama #RTR

Projected 8. Not surprised by this flip at all. #Bama may have the best profile in the poll. SOS 15, 5 QW, 4 T25W, game control 22.6. Even with 2 Ls that type of profile is going to go a long way with the committee.

6 #NotreDame #GoIrish

Projected 6. Perfect. The #Irish do have an iron clad profile: SOS is low at 86 but game control is high at 26.6. 5 QW & 2 T25Ws. They, however, can’t afford another slip up. Win out and the #Irish should end up the 5 or 6 seed.

5 #Indiana #Hoosiers

Projected 5. So how can a team w/ a SOS of 118 and only 1 QW be ranked so high? 0 Ls & the highest game control in the poll at 30.1. Game control above 30 is exceptional. The #Hoosiers can afford an L to #OhioState, but it can’t get out of hand.

4 #PennState #WeAre

Projected 4. The #NittanyLions have done everything asked except beat the #Buckeyes. SOS 96 isn’t great, but the moderate game control at 19.4 makes up for it along w/ the 4 QWs. They can’t afford a slip up or they will tumble out.

3 #Texas #HookEm

Projected 3. How competitive is this playoff field? If the #Longhorns were upset in that last game vs #TAMU, they likely would go from 3, to out. The margin is that tight. SOS 60 is adequate but only 2 QWs w/0 T25Ws is concerning. Game control is good at 25.1.

2 #OhioState #Buckeyes

Projected 2. The #Buckeyes are the only team I can see w/1 L that could lose another & be ok. As long as that L is a close one to #Oregon. SOS 63 is ok. 3 QWs is fine. 1 T25W is a bit low but ok. 2nd highest game control in the poll at 27.5 is their ally.

1 #Oregon #GoDucks

Projected 1. Barring a late season collapse, the #Ducks are in. Its just a matter of seeding now. They either have a bye as a Conference Champ or Autzen gets to be showcased as a playoff destination. Both options should sound great to #Oregon fans.

Where can you see these projections as well as every team's playoff profile & seeding before the #CFBPlayoff rankings come out? Check it all out here: patreon.com/cfb_professor?…