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Ahmed Tabaqchali Profile picture
Ahmed Tabaqchali
@AMTabaqchali
Chief Strategist AFC Iraq Fund @AsiaFrontierCap, Visiting Fellow @LSEMiddleEast, Sr Fellow @IRISmideast, Sr Non-Resident Fellow @AtlanticCouncil
Dec 7, 2020 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
My take on the #Iraq Stock Exchange for November.

Most economic activities seem to have returned to pre-lockdown levels as can been from Google’s mobility data as of 24/11

iraq-businessnews.com/2020/12/06/mar…

1/5 This, however, hasn’t translated, at least not yet, to higher demands for imports to satisfy consumption - given the high dependence on imports – as seen from the CBI’s USD sales volume as of 30/11 (using demand for USD as a proxy for import demand) ... more data is needed.

2/5
Oct 10, 2019 • 10 tweets • 5 min read
"Up #debt creek without a paddle"
#Iraq's budget’s structural imbalance between current & investment expenditures, as ever-increasing current expenditures will overtake revenues, needs debt to fund this gap.

Data in chart: 2010-2024 IMF estimates & projections.

1/10 #Iraq has been fortunate that higher oil prices & exports led to a budget surplus of over $27.5bn by end of Jul 2019. Revenue-expenditure gap is pushed forward in time. But, it is only a matter of when, not if, expenditures will overtake revenues.



2/10
Oct 4, 2019 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
My reading into the demographic sustainability of the protest movement & the inevitability of reform.

1001iraqithoughts.com/2018/06/25/the…

I argued, following the 2018 elections & based on the works ....

1/7 ... of Falah Jaber’s “The Iraqi Protest Movement: Frm Identity Politics to Issue Politics,” & Faris Kamal Nadhmi’s “Historical Bloc” thesis: that the 2015 protest movement which resulted in the break-up of the ethno-sectarian monolithic blocs dominant over the past 15 years,
2/7
Aug 22, 2019 • 5 tweets • 4 min read
As part of @AsiaFrontierCap’s continuing on the ground research in the countries we invest in, I report on my year in #Iraq ..

asiafrontiercapital.com/travel-reports…

1/5 ... to give ourt readers, investors & friends a sense of the change that #Iraq has gone through over the last 18 monthss –– a significant social & economic transformation, brought on by the combination of the improved security & an expansionary budget ...

2/5
Aug 14, 2019 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
My review on the #Iraq Stock Exchange for July: The IMF revised its real GDP, non-oil GDP growth rates for the crisis yeas 2014-2017 & post conflict 2018-2021.

iraq-businessnews.com/2019/08/11/mar…

The crisis years were, on the whole, weaker than initially expected.

1/7 While, 2018, the 1st year following the conflict, was the 2nd year of a deep recession with a contraction of -0.6% on the back of the prior year’s -2.5% decline, instead of being a 1st year of an economic recovery, at +2.9%, following a shallower decline of -0.4%.

2/7
Jul 16, 2019 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
النسخة العربية من "حوار الطرشان" او" جدل بشأن حصة إقليم كردستان من الموازنة الاتحادية "

bayancenter.org/2019/07/5383/

Recap: In the “Dialogue of the deaf” or “The debate over #Iraq-i #Kurdistan’s share of the federal budget”, I argue that the budget sharing ...

1/6 ... agreement, like all prior ones, is flawed, unsustainable, & bound to fail.

Looking at the #KRG’s finances, with the help of the Deloitte audits, I argue that the KRG cannot, even if it wanted, to comply with its obligations under the #Iraqi federal budget terms.

2/6
Jul 9, 2019 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
My review on the #Iraq Stock Exchange for June: The budget surplus for 2019 continues to grow & is currently at about $2.8bn by end of April,

iraq-businessnews.com/2019/07/08/mar…

1/6 which, based on current spending patterns & reported oil revenues, could grow to about $4.2bn by the end of June. Helped by the healing effects of increasing oil revenues, this surplus is on top of surpluses of $1.6bn for 2017 & $21.6bn for 2018 (chart)

2/6
Jul 2, 2019 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
An excellent piece by @GebeilyM on squaring the circle for #Iraq, ie to continue buying gas & electricity from #Iran despite US sanctions. The solution is for Iraq to pay for Iranian gas & electricity in IQD,

news.yahoo.com/iraq-sets-loop…

1/5 record the purchases in a ledger & in the process build credit for Iran to use “exclusively to buy humanitarian goods” from outside Iraq.

At issue are #Iran’s $12bn annual exports to #Iraq: $6bn in services (includes gas & electricity),

2/5
Jun 22, 2019 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
In the “Dialogue of the deaf: The debate over #Iraq-i #Kurdistan’s share of the federal budget”, I argue that the budget sharing agreement, like all prior ones, is flawed, unsustainable, & bound to fail.

bayancenter.org/en/2019/06/194…

1/6 Looking at the #KRG’s finances, with the help of the Deloitte audits, I argue that the KRG cannot, even if it wanted, to comply with its obligations under the #Iraqi federal budget terms.

2/6
Jun 6, 2019 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
My take on the #Iraq Stock Exchange for May: The early signs of the return of the liquidity to the real economy continue.

iraq-businessnews.com/2019/06/06/ira…

1/5 After, what seems like forever, it’s looking increasingly likely that year-over-year growth in M2 (a proxy for economic activity) is finally tracking increasing oil revenues, however, more data points are needed before this short-term trend can become sustainable

2/5