NATO MARCOM/ Assistant Professor @NavalWarCollege; @Columbia PhD; @DCRES_Harvard; @HarrimanInst; Russian Foreign Policy, Geopolitics of Energy. Views my own.
Sep 28, 2022 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
🧵🚨 Gazprom 🇷🇺rejects Naftogaz 🇺🇦 demand for arbitration due to "unfriendly" arbitration environment in Switzerland 🇨🇭. This means we might be looking at ZERO #Russia gas to Europe this winter. 1/x
3 #NordStream pipes are severely damaged due to this week's explosions, technically 1 pipe of #NS2 could work, but not likely anytime soon. Hard to imagine #Germany 🇩🇪 will agree to use it. 2/x tagesspiegel.de/wirtschaft/eu-…
Quick thread on #Europe#EnergySecurity given the context of today's events. 1. It is HIGHLY UNLIKELY that there will be a major interruption of Russian gas supplies to Europe because Russia and Europe are energy *interdependent* 1/x
That means Russia is also reliant on Europe as a consumer of its natural gas. It is not technically possible for Russia to turn around & sell gas bound for Europe to Asian consumers because infrastructure binds certain Russian gas fields with European export routes. 2/x