Chief Economist, @Alexforbes. Fellow, @econrsa. Columnist, @BDLiveSA. @ABSIP economist of the year 2019.
Apr 4 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Moody's changed SA's Ba2 credit rating outlook from negative to stable on Friday 1 April 2022. It's not an April's fools joke! It list as its main reason, improved fiscal performance. 1) SARS modernisation drove efficiencies in tax collections (1/N) @AlexForbes_Inv@alexforbes
SARS collected R16.5bn more than projected at the 2022 Budget Review. 2) Rising commodity prices boosted SA's growth - mining, financials, consumption etc. 3) better spending controls by @TreasuryRSA leading to faster reduction of fiscal deficit & consolidation of debt.
Nov 17, 2021 • 5 tweets • 4 min read
Oct #Inflation released by Stats SA is at 5.0%, unchanged from Sep. #Food & #non-alcoholic beverages; #housing, #utilities; #transport; and #miscellaneous goods & services were the major drivers. Global inflation going up. Inflation no longer transitory, maybe persistent (1/N)
#Core inflation at 3.2%, still very low. #Goods inflation at 7.1%, with #none-durable goods at 8.6%! Services inflation is at 3.0%. #administrered prices (taxes!) rising by a whooping 11.2% (2/N)
Jun 24, 2020 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
The most important numbers out of the:
Economic growth in 2020 is expected at -7.2% (SARB's is 7.1%)
Revenue: R1.099tn (22.6% of GDP) from R1.398tn (25.8% in Feb)
Expenditure: R1.809tn (37.2% of GDP) from R1.766tn (32.5% of GDP) @TreasuryRSA #SupplementaryBudget
Debt costs: R236.4bn (4.9% of GDP) from R229.3bn (4.2% of GDP)
Main budget balance: -R709.7bn (14.6% of GDP)
Primary balance (excl. interest costs): -R473.2bn (-9.7% of GDP) from -R138.7bn (-2.6% of GDP)