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2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander

A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)

To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter ImageImageImageImage

I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf

Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.… ImageImageImage
Read 111 tweets
Deleting my Emerson tweet because we don't have proof that they polled or weighted incorrectly and I really don't want people to jump to a conclusion on the stats alone. To be honest, I have no idea what Emerson did here. I don't know how you can get a difference like that.
It is *extremely* weird for them to get a poll that very weirdly lines up with the old partisanship of the districts better than the new ones (#NM02: Trump +10 in 2020, Biden +5 in 2022, recalled vote Trump +11?). Also, why are natives 4% of the electorate in #NM03?
Same thing in #NM03, where the recalled vote is Biden +18 for a seat that was Biden +18 in 2020 and Biden +11 after a redraw.
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I swear to god, we could have 70 races where the reformist candidate wins, and these people will wait for the one race where the retrograde candidate wins (is ahead, here), and act like that’s The One That Proves Their Point.
Like, even tonight, look at Manhattan, where it is an actual DA being voted on: The progressive who folks there coalesced around has declared victory.
Not to mention Buffalo and Rochester — again, tonight! A socialist and WFP-endorsed candidate, respectively, won.
Read 7 tweets
A look at how the *Democratic Establishment* [insert thunderclap noise] has been mostly routing the left in primaries this year, with the kings @SchneiderG and @michaelscherer. (Beating Trump made D voters much more content w their old guard.)…
McAuliffe's win was expected, but the left lost a winnable LG primary, and three left-wing VA legislators lost primaries; the pro-Green New Deal candidate lost in #LA02; Nina Turner, the likeliest Bernie Wing winner of the year, is running as a pro-Obama Dem.
The situation in #NM01 was a little different, bc the left-wing candidate lost in a virtual convention, not a primary. But the more center-left candidate ran ads touting her work with police and won by a landslide.
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One last note on #NM01 -- Democrats saw absolutely no "suburban reversion" against them, but they did see Hispanics come back to some degree; Stansbury improved on Biden's margins across the board.

But it's important to remember that they outspent the GOP by several degrees here
You can't win elections without spending money at some level. Without a high-dollar race at some level that defines the party and environment, you're going to see a lot more importance placed on spending as a result. It's a big reason Democrats got destroyed in #TX06 as well.
If it's any comfort, Democrats are not going to be lacking for money in this upcoming cycle in the slightest, and per @Redistrict's analysis, they do appear to represent way more wealthy suburban districts than the GOP do, which probably helps them out a lot here.
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So, #NM01 is finally done counting. Stansbury wins, and the district's margin is D+24.5, which is a 1.7 point Democratic improvement on Joe Biden's margin (D+22.8). Turnout was roughly 41% of November's, making it the largest turnout special since January, by some distance.
Needless to say, that is a really, really positive results for Democrats, who massively outspent the GOP on this race and saw themselves rewarded for it. Stansbury improved across the board on Biden's margins and blew Haaland's D+16.4 margin out of the water.
Flatly, the GOP didn't turn out, and unaffiliated folks don't seem to have penalized the Democrats for Biden being in the White House (surprise!! not really), as Stansbury appears to have won the NPAs by a bit more than Biden did.
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Stansbury's overperformance is cutting across the board. Both of these districts are whiter & more college educated McCain -> Biden seats.

In the most heavily-Hispanic legislative district (HD-14), Stansbury's 77%-21% basically matches Obama 2008. It was only 70% Biden. #nm01
In the next two most Hispanic HDs in NM-1 (HDs 12 & 13), Stansbury is closer to Biden (winning by 32%-ish) than to Obama (+44%-ish). But fewer than 2K votes for each, so I'm emphasizing that 1) we could get more in and 2) specials can be hard to draw conclusions from.
In SD-11 (the most Hispanic state Senate seat in NM-1), Stansbury is splitting the difference, and that makes sense to me. (usual caveats apply)

2008: Obama +48%
2020: Biden +34%
2021: Stansbury +40%
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Actually, Wasserman called it earlier.
Now it's jut to see what the margin looks like.

2020: D+19.4
2018: D+22.6
2016: D+30.3
2014: D+17.2
2012: D+18.3
2010: D+7.8
2008: D+11.3
2006: R+0.4
2004: R+8.9

Read 9 tweets
Election results will go up here after 7 pm:…

Also here, just for Bernalillo County (will be >90% of total votes): #nmpol
Polls closed at 7, and I am currently incessantly refreshing results pages.
First results are from the tiny sliver of Santa Fe County that is in #nm01:
Moores: 540
Stansbury: 342
Dunn: 43
Manning: 6
Read 7 tweets
Early voting metrics provide a window rather than an exact measurement. That said, I think it's fair to say that the electorate for #NM01 is between D+22 and D+26 at the time of the last data drop (2PM MST) from @Alexrosstweets; I'd split the difference at D+24.
This will almost certainly shrink significantly; the question is just how much. I believe the result window we're looking at is between D+18 and D+24. My prediction is D+22, but that's really a rough estimation, so take it w/ a grain of salt
literally all of these estimates are just that: estimates. I could be horribly, horribly wrong and it wouldn't be the first time. standard disclaimer that if you're using it for betting advice or whatever, that's entirely on you because I don't recommend that.
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Alright, folks, we've got a special election today in #NM01. The early vote appears to be ~D+28 based on partisan affiliation, so what can we expect for the results? I'll break it down in this thread below.
For the sake of this exercise, we'll assume that party registration matches up with voting preference.

Via Alex Ross, we see that Democrats hold a substantial edge in both the mail and the early in-person vote. With a 50/50 NPA skew, that'd be a D+28 EV.
Let's crank it up and play out different NPA scenarios.

If NPAs skew...

60/40 GOP: D+25.8
70/30 GOP: D+23.4 EV
60/40 Dem: D+30.3
70/30 Dem: D+32.6
Read 10 tweets
So I've heard some talk on here about Hispanics warming to Biden. The #NM01 election is ofc special, but I'd watch parts of ABQ's Bernalillo County (where >90% of the NM-1 vote is cast). Biden did 3% better than Obama, but worse in most Hispanic-majority legislative districts.
HDs 69 and 50 sort of throw off the map, but they’re each a single precinct and aren’t fully in NM-1. 69 is heavily American Indian and 50 is a rural white-majority precinct.
same color scale at the top map, but this 2008 -> 2020 by precinct. The NM-1 part of the county (almost all of it) is outlined. Biden still carried the cluster of red precincts in the south-central part of the county, just by smaller margins.
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#NM01 is currently at ~D+28 for the early vote for Tuesday's special election, going by party registration numbers.

In November, 89% of the vote was cast early and was ~D+19 for the congressional race (Haaland won by 16.4 points).

Anything below D+20 would be *stunning*.
Looking at Twitter, I don't think people have their priors set properly for this one. We have absolutely no evidence to believe that there will be a strong R surge that will destroy Democrats on election day, based on what we know. Ds have also lapped the Rs in fundraising.
Early vote numbers per @Alexrosstweets and @NMSecOfState.
Read 3 tweets
Slight improvement for Rs as early vote goes on; breakdown of turnout among registered voters is now 59% D, 29% R, 12% other.

So far, ABQ Dems not complying with the "de-mobilize when your party holds the White House" tradition.
This also emphasizes just how paltry turnout was in that Texas race. There are four days of early voting left (inc. today) and #NM01 is at 84% of the *total* turnout in this month's #TX06 all-party primary.
I've been covering the race closely (folks, subscribe to the newsletter) and one theme is that Stansbury, hit with "defund the police" attacks, did what the DCCC says more Dems should have done last year: Line up law enforcement endorsers and say how she supports them.
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Today at @ClimateHawkVote we're spotlighting @MelanieforNM in #NM01. She's got a new ad up -- watch it!
@ClimateHawkVote @MelanieforNM What I really like about this ad -- @MelanieforNM is running on climate, clean energy, a grid bill that she passed !!! and #NM01 jobs, all while highlighting her local roots.
@ClimateHawkVote @MelanieforNM (I had to look up Burquena. It means Albuquerquean, and it's much easier to say and spell)
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NYT map is useful. 90% of the #NM01 vote comes from Bernallillo County, which shifted left in 2020 = blue is "bluer since 2016."

Story for both parties was less racial politics, more local party leaders picking the candidates who'd won swing seats.
And I forgot the map! But you see it here - some precincts where Rs gained over 2016, a lot more where Dems gained. Crucial context: In 2016, Gary Johnson was on the ballot. Most of his protest voters ended up going Dem in 2020. Image
GOP candidate's first TV ad doesn't mention that he's a Republican or that he has some Hispanic heritage. Not impossible for GOP but tough. It's just notable that a state party that challenged the 2020 electoral vote recruited a less ideological-sounding R
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Final Results for #LA02

Gary Chambers lost by 1.6% (around 1500 votes)

First of all, tremendous props to Gary and his team for running a real progressive campaign and way over performing polls and the expectations of most of the pundits.
Second of all, this was a defeat for progressives and the race will now be between a conservative Democrat and a corporate lobbyist who has a record of now showing up for her constituents.
Gary is a lifelong activist and the clear progressive choice. When organisations like Our Revolution and DFA endorsed a lobbyist over him it was misguided and likely an attempt to endorse a more viable candidate when Gary was indeed viable.
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We need to truly w/ #NationalRankedChoiceVoting. It would restore #democracy! My thread of #DownBallotProgressives that includes #NotMeUs + some w/ #YangGang!
Follow @nrcvorg @TheRagtagBand
.@ninaturner🔹is running for #OH11 for @RepMarciaFudge🔹seat she will be leaving in an #Election May! @BernieSanders @CoriBush @RoKhanna @OurRevolution @AndrewYang & many more have endorsed! #NotMeUs
.@GaryChambersJr🔹is running for #LA02 3/20/21 an open seat as @RepRichmond🔹vacates it. He’s 💯grassroots and will fight for someone he doesnt even know #NotMeUs #MedicareForAll
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Congresswoman Carolyn Bourdeaux flipped #GA07 blue & helped put Georgia in the Dem column for the 1st time since 1992.

@Carolyn4GA7 uses her experience helping to rebuild GA’s economy in the Great Recession to tackle kitchen table issues for working families. #WomensHistoryMonth
Congresswoman Teresa Leger Fernandez fought for decades for equity & investment in the health & economic security of Latino & tribal communities.

@TeresaForNM’s expertise is vital as the House tackles a pandemic w/ disparate impact on these communities. #NM03 #WomensHistoryMonth
Congresswoman Marie Newman’s fight for #Equality4All was a national model years before she came to DC.

@Marie4Congress also works for health care, gun sense, and curbing economic inequality with workforce & infrastructure investment for a green economy. #IL03 #WomensHistoryMonth
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If Haaland is confirmed, it would trigger a special election in #NM01, which voted for Biden by 23 points, per @DKElections.

In 15 U.S. House special elections from 2017 to 2020, the maximum deviation from a district's presidential results was 21 points.

Democrats would start out as strong favorites to keep Haaland's #NM01 district (Biden +23).

There are several examples of Democrats overperforming by close to that margin in special elections - #KS04 (+21), #PA18 (+20), #NY27 (+19).

But the GOP would have to do even better.
For Republicans to pull off a massive upset in a #NM01 special election, they'd probably need:

- A strongly pro-Republican political environment
- Latino turnout collapses in a district where they are ~43% of eligible voters
- Latinos that do show up shift towards Republicans
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Cori Bush defied the odds and defeated a political dynasty.

Jamaal Bowman won with 55.4%

We’ve had so many historic progressive wins, but it doesn’t end here! Let’s get progressives like those listed below in office!
Screw “Blue Wave”, lets make a #ProgressiveFlood!
1. @EdMarkey
Running for Senate: #Massachusetts

Supports: the Green New Deal and Medicare For All

His primary Election Day is September 1st


For more info go to:
2. @AlexBMorse
District: #MA01

Supports: Medicare For All, Universal Basic Income, $15 Minimum Wage, Cancel Student Debt, and Free College Tuition.

His primary Election Day is September 1st.


For more info go to:
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House members will vote by proxy for the 1st time in chamber's 231-yr history beginning Wed. House clerk posted letters from mbrs who will not be physically present on House floor for votes due to COVID-19 pandemic & have given their proxies to other mbrs.…
1st term #CA39 Democratic @RepGilCisneros has designated his voting proxy to 1st term #PA06 Democratic @RepHoulahan. Image
3rd term #VA08 Democratic @RepDonBeyer, who represents one of the closest House districts to Capitol Hill, will vote by proxy for 7th term Democratic #TN09 @RepCohen, chair of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on the Constitution, Civil Rights, and Civil Liberties. Image
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Tested it out with this new KY map. Based on 2016-2019 results, intrigued how it would do in 2020. The #KY04 (R+7 PVI) seems more competitive than the real #KY06 (R+9), with the movement in the Cincinnati and Lexington suburbs. 2/27…
However, I also did a bunch of Democratic gerrymanders after 2012 redistricting to compare with the real Republican ones. Thought I’d review how my designs performed in light of 2016. The contrast shows just how much of a difference partisan control makes (spoiler: a lot). 3/27
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Of your 46 Dem House Reps, 22 are afraid of #ImpeachmentInquiry. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Call & tell them: Do your job!

#CA05 @RepThompson 202-225-3311
#CA07 @RepBera 202-225-5716
#CA09 @RepMcNerney 202-225-1947
#CA10 @RepJoshHarder 202-225-4540
Of your 46 Dem House Reps, 22 are afraid of #ImpeachmentInquiry. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Call & tell them: Do your job!

#CA12 @SpeakerPelosi 202-225-4965
#CA16 @RepJimCosta 202-225-3341
#CA17 @RepRoKhanna 202-225-2631
#CA18 @RepAnnaEshoo 202-225-8104
Of your 46 Dem House Reps, 22 are afraid of #ImpeachmentInquiry. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Call & tell them:Do your job!

#CA19 @RepZoeLofgren 202-225-3072
#CA20 @RepJimmyPanetta 202-225-2861
#CA21 @RepTJCox 202-225-4695
#CA24 @RepCarbajal 202-225-3601
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