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Jamie Woodhouse Profile picture
Jamie Woodhouse
@JamieWoodhouse
Evidence, reason & compassion for all sentient beings = @Sentientism YTube: https://t.co/nOiSLVLSs8 Pod: https://t.co/AB3y6Zzw1d FBook: https://t.co/pqdp1NtVyo 🌱 🇪🇺🇬🇧 #Sentientist
Apr 10, 2020 • 22 tweets • 14 min read
Thank you for holding the 🇬🇧 #Lockdown!

So important, as ~1 in 12 UK people (5.5 million) might have #COVID19. ~1 in 7 in London.

That would mean there are infected people in every park, in every shop, in every street. It might include you!

Thread w/calculations if interested: Assume: 14,333 deaths (8958 hosp deaths + 60% for lag + non hosp)

Infection (not case) Fatality Rate: 1%

Days infection to death ~23.5

So 1.4m infected up to 23.5 days ago

~12 days to double (adj. for recovery) so ~2 doublings since

So infections now: ~5.5m. ~1m recovered
Apr 3, 2020 • 21 tweets • 17 min read
~4.3 million 🇬🇧 people may now have #COVID19

~6.3% or 1 in 16. ~13% in London

Assume: 4,326 dead (hosp +20%); IFR 1%; Adj. days to death ~18

So ~432k infected up to 18 days ago
~5.25 d to double so ~3.4 doublings since

So infections to date: ~4.7m, ~8% recovered so ~4.3m now Whole model is v.sensitive to inputs, so low confidence + wide ranges apply.

More deaths --> more infections
Higher IFR% --> fewer infs (don't need as many for same deaths)
Longer days to death --> more infs (more time to double)
Higher doubling rate --> more infs
Mar 29, 2020 • 21 tweets • 8 min read
~2.4 million 🇬🇧 UK people may have #COVID19.

~3.6% or 1 in 28. ~8% in London.

Assume: 1228 dead; IFR 0.9%; Adj. days to death ~18.

So ~136k infected 18 days ago
~4.25 days to double so ~4 doublings

So infections to date: ~2.6m, ~5% recovered so ~2.4m infected. Main changes:

Yesterday I reduced median days to death from 18.5 to 13 to account for exponential skew. Now updated to use days to death from infection (23), not from symptoms. Brings adj. number back to 18.

Used slower doubling assuming lockdown is shifting towards Italy (7d).
Mar 28, 2020 • 18 tweets • 7 min read
~1.7 million 🇬🇧 UK people may be #COVID19 infected.

~3% or 1 in 39. ~6% in London.

Assume: 1019 dead; IFR 0.9%; Adj. days to death ~13.

So ~113k infected 13 days ago
~3.25 days to double so ~4 doublings

So infections to date: ~1.8m, ~5% recovered so ~1.7m infected. London estimates are based on yesterday's 32% of UK "confirmed cases" - not on separate doubling rates.

Implies ~467k current infections in London, or ~6% of the population.

Within the range mentioned by @neil_ferguson in S+T cttee:

Sep 7, 2019 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
To the person who attacked me from behind in front of my daughter and tried to put me in a choke hold...

To the person who tried to rip my EU flag from my hands...

To the group singing Tommy Robinson chants while disrupting the #DefendDemocracy rally... ...You bring shame on Brexit supporters - most of whom are good people.

You are helping persuade even more of them to become #RemainerNow. For that I thank you.

Who would want to be on the same side as you?

@BestForBritain #DefendOurDemocracy #MarchForChange @march_change