Dr. Liana Fix Profile picture
Programme Director @KoerberIP | former @gmfus @swpberlin | author @palgrave on #GermanFP #EuropeanSecurity #Russia #ArmsControl #EasternEurope | Proud @WIIS_de
Mar 4 9 tweets 3 min read
Two weeks after our initial article What If Russia Wins?, @mkimmage and I think through the opposite scenario: What If Russia Loses? for @ForeignAffairs - "They created a desert and called it peace" (Tacitus) but then the question becomes: what now?foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/red… (1/9) Putin has made a strategic blunder by invading Ukraine and he will be unable to win this war on his preferred terms. Perhaps he can cobble together a puppet government with Kyiv as its capital, a Vichy Ukraine. Perhaps he can muster the support required from a secret police (2/9)
Feb 18 11 tweets 4 min read
THREAD🧵- What If Russia Wins in Ukraine? @mkimmage and I tried to think through this scenario and the consequences for Europe and the US for @ForeignAffairs - here are some points👇@gmfus foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukrai… (1/11) If Russia achieves its political aims in Ukraine by military means, Europe will not be what it was before the war. Not only will U.S. primacy in Europe have been qualified; any sense that the EU or NATO can ensure peace on the continent will be the artifact of a lost age. (2/11)
Mar 21, 2021 6 tweets 7 min read
Four years after our Brookings paper, @stevenckeil and myself continue our reflection on the state of #German foreign policy. Is the Biden presidency Germany’s last chance to step up? Have a look at our @gmfus paper @ConStelz @ulrichspeck @Judy_Dempsey @jan_techau @jana_puglierin (2/5) Four issues will be critical in determining Germany’s ability to partner with the #US in leadership: security policy, the #Russia & #China test cases (Nord Stream & more), public opinion on foreign policy & the makeup of the governing coalition after this fall’s elections.
Sep 25, 2019 19 tweets 28 min read
1) THREAD: What to expect if the #US 🇺🇸withdraws from #NATO? At the Körber #PolicyGame, we discussed this scenario w/ high-level officials and experts in coop w/ @IISS_org - here are the summarized results for the Twitterati community: (have mercy, it’s my first thread!) 2) We wanted to know: How would Europeans react in such a situation?What are interests and red lines? Thus, we invited a 🇫🇷, 🇩🇪, 🇵🇱,🇬🇧, and 🇺🇸 team to play our scenario. Crisis in the #South, Crisis in the #East - were #Europeans able to get their act together w/out the 🇺🇸? 💪 🇪🇺