Laurence Kant Profile picture
Integrate history of religion, languages, mysticism, Judaism, ethics, global community, politics, Israel-MidEast. Researcher-teacher-speaker-writer-poet.
Mar 25 11 tweets 6 min read
@DAlperovitch 1) "Lost": that's not what most military analysts I read are saying. I would say that the predominant word I see is "stalemate" (e.g. ISW and many others). @DAlperovitch 2) Now I guess one could argue that a stalemate is effectively a loss for Russia. And probably it is in many ways, but that's more a product of expectations than an objective description.
Mar 24 5 tweets 3 min read
1) This article represents the predominant view of military analysts of Russia's invasion of #Ukraine: a #STALEMATE, likely to last for months absent a negotiated settlement. It's also one of the best summaries of the military situations I've seen. 2) Of course circumstances could change, and the Russians could find a way to win. At the same time, it's also possible that the Russian force could collapse, and the Ukrainians could defeat them. But these are less likely scenarios than a long-term stalemate. #UkraineInvasion
Mar 24 4 tweets 2 min read

1) 40,000 casualties is over 20% of the Russian invasion force in #Ukraine. I'm not saying that #Russia can't win--things can always change--but right now Russia is not winning. 2) It's hard to see how Russia can lose this many troops and this much equipment without serious military degradation. I guess that Russia could find more troops through conscription or a draft, but that would present very tricky political problems for Putin. #UkraineInvasion
Mar 24 9 tweets 3 min read

1) Hey, #MESA, it's not #antisemitism, huh? Well, I'm sure then you must be endorsing boycotts of Saudi Arabia for running a police state, treating women like chattel, and giving capital punishment to LGBTQ folks. 2) And I'm sure you endorsing boycotts of Iran for imprisoning&murdering LGBTQ, Bahai, and others, treating its Arab population as 2nd-class citizens, destroying democracy, and threatening to wipe lsrael off the map.
Mar 23 19 tweets 5 min read
1) The author has a point here, but is also fundamentally mistaken IMHO on "#genocide." What follows is a somewhat extensive thread: 2) The term, "genocide," is specific and refers to the mass murder of a particular group of people with the goal of erasing them from existence. "Genocide" and mass murder are not the same, and that distinction means something.