COP28 debates about whether we should “phase out fossil fuels,” “phase down fossil fuels” or “phase out unabated fossil fuels” and whether that refers to production or only consumption highlight 5 false narratives used by the oil/gas industry and export countries like Canada.🧵 Recent reports (IPCC, UN Emissions and Production Gap Reports) conclude we're not on track to meet the Paris goal to limit warming to 1.5-2C. Current policies lead to a catastrophic 3C! Those reports all conclude we need to rapidly reduce fossil fuel consumption and production.

A short history of Cdn oil and climate policy. #cdnpoli
Phase 1: ind funds misinformation campaigns that lead public (still!) to doubt scientific consensus that warming is anthropogenic. Oil/gas makes lots $$, emissions double from 1990-2015.
@globeandmail theglobeandmail.com/business/comme… Phase 2: Oil/gas industry lobbies to weaken or block policies to limit emissions. Argues will devastate economy, cost jobs, competitive disadvantage with US. Success in blocking meaningful limits, more profit, emissions keep rising. /2

I moved to a new house last year. We're committed to getting off fossil fuels, including replacing an older (not high-eff) gas furnace, gas water heater, gas stove. So far, it's frustrating! Starting a thread here, will update as it goes .... After the deadly 2021 BC heat wave, we were keen to get a heat - and cooling! - pump before summer 2022. I applied to the federal Greener Homes program on October 1. Approval didn't come till January 14. This isn't approval for rebates, just to start the process. /2

Today Canada released a discussion paper re: oil/gas as promised in Emissions Reduction Plan. It sets out 2 possible approaches: price-based (higher C price for oil/gas) or quantity-based (sector-specific cap and trade). Reasonable options, w tradeoffs.🧵 canada.ca/en/environment… I’m not seeing any surprises here for policy nerds, though it’s not quite what was reported in the press, which implied (well for me) that offsets were off the table. Herewith a summary of what I found both reassuring and worrying. Let's start with reassuring.

In the Canadian petrostate, climate policies aiming to reduce domestic emissions are adopted time and again in exchange for more oil and gas exports. After all, the emissions when those fossil fuels are burned are not our problem. 🧵 Exhibit 1: Federal approval of #TMX pipeline in 2016 exchange for Alberta’s agreement to raise its carbon price from $30 to $50/tonne (agreement that was later withdrawn but wasn’t constitutionally required anyway.)

One last comparison of the parties’ #climate plans in #elxn44! This time updates based on LPC and NDP platform costing. As with original thread (pasted at end), I haven’t covered everything, incl adaptation, buildings, climate finance, green growth $$ (might do that one yet). /1 Big update for NDP. Platform said NDP “supported” carbon pricing but didn't specify price. This led many (incl me) to question impact and cost of the NDP plan. But budget matches Lib price schedule - $170/tonne in 2030. That will deliver signif and cost-effective reductions. /2

We’ve now got the 3 main national parties’ climate platforms. (Greens haven’t got much on website, so will go with a 8/9 press release here and there.) How do they compare? Great that lots of detail, so 🧵will be long. Still can’t promise to cover everything. #cdnpoli #elxn44 /1 Cutting to the chase, Cons plan is better than in 2019, but Lib and NDP both promise much more ambitious policies and less support for fossil fuels. NDP builds on Lib initiatives, w tweaks, some important (fossil fuel subsidies). There’s a table to compare at end of 🧵! /2

Some good stuff in here, some questions. /1
Trudeau promises to regulate oil and gas emissions, electric vehicle sales /via @globeandmail theglobeandmail.com/politics/artic… more details here /2
liberal.ca/wp-content/upl…

This is integral to the fed govt's v important carbon budget legislation (Bill C-12). Independent advice is critical to ensure govts set appropriate climate targets and stay on course. Can also provide a shared foundation of knowledge for parliamentarians. But.../1

https://twitter.com/JonathanWNV/status/1365017396491259911

There are different approaches. The UK Climate Change Committee is heavily weighted toward researchers, most from academia. theccc.org.uk/about/ /2

In anticipation of a possible 2021 Canadian election, with a new fed climate plan on the table, and a new Paris Ag target to come by April, some thoughts on partisanship and #climate. Bear with me for 🧵, two proposals at end. #canpoli /1 It's tempting and easy to play partisan politics with climate for 5 reasons. 1. Most voters have no idea how far current policies are from what's needed. So parties still debate marginal policy shifts even as they *say* they are committed to 2/1.5C. /2

That Canada's Environment Minister would celebrate this initiative using Shell's "Carbon Neutral" framing is deeply troubling to me, for many reasons. /1

https://twitter.com/JonathanWNV/status/1326933636189483011

$0.02/litre is less than $9/tonne CO2. *IF* we still have credible (i.e., additional, lasting) offsets at that rate in Canada it speaks volumes to the failure of our government to adopt policies that move Canada, cost-effectively, toward our Paris Agreement target. /2