Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Rafael Mentges 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Rafael Mentges 🇪🇺 🇺🇦
@RafaelMentges
Economist. Interested in EMU, ECB, money, and macroeconomics. And more lately a bit of old school finance stuff and banking history.
Oct 26, 2022 • 19 tweets • 4 min read
Cosco, Hamburger Hafen, InvestitionsprĂĽfung, kritische Infrastruktur, #China und die maritime SeidenstraĂźe
Ein langweiliger Thread (mit drei schönen Fotos): Image Intuitiv scheint es klar: man sollte einem geostrategischen Konkurrenten keine Kontrolle über die eigene kritische Infrastruktur erlauben.
Aber wie groĂź ist das Risiko bei einem Erwerb von 35% bzw. wie im Kompromiss von 24,9% eines Terminals des Hamburger Hafens wirklich? Image
Oct 26, 2022 • 25 tweets • 6 min read
I asked myself what exactly the problem is with the #Cosco deal to get a share of one of the four terminal's of Hamburg's port (and other ports in Europe).

Here are some points about China, ports, national security, cyber threats, and the Maritime Silk Road.
A Thread 🧵: There is a possible compromise on the #Cosco deal with the share being reduced to 24.9% just short of the share that would grant them more influence on Hamburg's port.
That is clearly better than before but I am still not sure whether this is a good idea.
t-online.de/region/hamburg…
Sep 3, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
1/ Today 30 years ago, Sept 3, 1992, Bundesbank took a fateful decision. Despite increasing pressures on foreign exchange markets they decided to keep the discount rate at of 8.75% to fight domestic inflation dismissing risks of a looming EMS crisis.
2/ It is unclear whether crisis could have been avoided with a slightly more conciliatory Bundesbank and a small rate cut. But it would have definitely brought temporary relief to some European currencies that increasingly came under pressure to devalue against the Deutschmark.
Aug 31, 2022 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
30 years ago in 1992, September was the month when the EMS crisis escalated for the first time.
One of the reasons was the 🇩🇪 reunification boom. Demand surged and inflation with it. Bundesbank decided to increase its discount rate to 8.75%, the highest in Bundesbank history. Image The European Monetary System (EMS) was a fixed exchange rate regime that was supposed to stabilize exchange rates among EU (or EC) member states (MS).
Everybody with a bit of a macro background knows that fixed exchange rates require more or less equal interest rates among MS.
Apr 5, 2022 • 16 tweets • 5 min read
This German politician claims for the second time within not more than 48 hours that we are witnessing a #hyperinflation. That is obviously wrong, but what is a hyperinflation?
A short 🧵
From econ textbooks we usually learn there is no generally accepted definition of a hyperinflation. But there is a rule-of-thumb: it says that we call inflation above 50% a hyperinflation.
50% sounds pretty high already but ...
Jul 3, 2021 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
1/ Ex-Verfassungsrichter hält #EZB-Negativzins für verfassungswidrig

Gut, dass da ein "ex" davor steht.
oldenburger-onlinezeitung.de/nachrichten/ex… via @OOZeitung 2/ „Das Sparen darf nicht als Anlageform für die Bevölkerung mit kleinem Vermögen gegenüber der Aktie und der Immobilie als Anlageform für Personen mit höherem Geldeigentum benachteiligt werden“

Erstens ergibt der Satz keinen Sinn, weil Sparen keine Anlageform ist.
May 18, 2021 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
1/ Today at 9.30 am, the German Constitutional Court announces its decision whether the ECB is sufficiently complying with its #PSPP ruling from May 2020.
In the following thread I want to briefly discuss two important aspects of this ruling: Proportionality and Accountability. 2/ Proportionality: In last year’s decision the GCC made clear that it sees the PSPP as overstepping the boundaries of monetary policy into the realms of economic policy which is supposed to be in the hands of national governments.
Mar 21, 2021 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
1/ Patiently waiting for the reaction of fx markets to the sacking of #Turkey's central bank governor Naci Agbal.

His successor has some funny ideas: “interest rate increases will indirectly lead to an increase in inflation”. 2/ Will there be a crash of the Turkish lira tomorrow? Probably yes! But markets did not react to the appointment of Uysal in 2019 and rather slowly to his rate cuts. I am still pretty sure, the lira will depreciate strongly though.
May 3, 2020 • 22 tweets • 7 min read
1/ Tuesday 6 May 10:00 the German constitutional court (#BVerfG) issues ruling on the #ECB’s quantitative easing, the Public Sector Purchase Programme (#PSPP). Here is a short thread on possible rulings and how likely they are:
bundesverfassungsgericht.de/SharedDocs/Ter… 2/ What is it about? First, there are doubts about the compatibility of the PSPP with the prohibition of monetary financing according to Art. 123(1) TFEU
eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/Lex…