With the "green backlash" underway in Germany and the EU (attempts to kill the EU ETS2 -- emissions trading scheme for transport and buildings -- and dilute the EU ETS1, which covers 'industry'), it strikes me as important to draw attention to social science work on the topic. 1. Why was it possible to introduce the EU ETS1 in the first place? See this paper by @edenhofer_jacob and @ChFlachsland
Mass level:
Shifting climate policy to the EU diffused responsibility, made it harder to assign blame, and drew less voter attention. The EU Commission—not electorally accountable—could thus pass stricter policies.
Elite level:
Moving policymaking to the EU reduced policy uncertainty, alleviated competitiveness concerns, presented carbon-intensive lobbies with a more difficult collective action problem, and lowered audience costs.
osf.io/preprints/soca…

Glad to see that my evidence submission to UK Parliament Committee on Use of AI in Government has been quoted in todays report. There is much said and some case study examples in the piece. I want to use this 🧵to sketch out policy implications of expanded use of AI in govt... Implication 1: With AI + digital payment infrastructure, tax filing/compliance cost cost can vastly decrease allowing for a broader fiscalisation that could be implemented with a reduction in the VAT registration threshold that is very high in international comparison in UK.

@EconMaett @infornomics I think also tagging @edenhofer_jacob here. I think the big challenge continues to be that, of course, foreign interference is entirely possible on social media in the absence of (digital) ID. We simply dont know if it is humans or bots or networks of bots operating accounts. The problem is that the issue of ID is a transnational one. States are traditionally providing identity layers; issue currencies; etc. The right of free speech is vital, but it does not come with the right to an audience. And in social media space, you can easily "fake" an audience. This is part of the hybrid attack on institutions. But the US is caught up in wanting to protect the economic interests of its tech companies and has used this as a wedge issue within Europe finding varying coalitions. In the end there is no way around it that some form of capital controls will come back as these are now technologically feasible.

This is a longer thread to connect some dots. It is so obvious to some to understand what "went wrong" in 2000s/2010s but as I keep saying deeds matter more than words. I will try to relate some academic work that speaks to this. This is also about understanding... The above is a status report on the G20 Data Gaps Initiative (DGI) tackling data deficiencies to improve policy-making. The Phase 3 started in, surprise surprise, 2022. Focus areas are 1️⃣ Climate Change 2️⃣ HH Distributional Info 3️⃣ Fintech/Fin Inclusion 4️⃣ Data Access/Sharing

How do spatially skewed economic shocks deepen gender employment gaps? New research by @sarthak_joshi who is on the market this year reveals that rising Chinese imports reshaped labor demand in India, disproportionately restricting women’s access to urban non-farm jobs... due to gendered commuting frictions.
Main finding: Improving transport infrastructure for women could have:
✅ Mitigated female labor force declines by 30% (2001–2011)
✅ Boosted total output by 0.4%
A stark case for policy intervention to empower women and grow economies.

Interesting to read Iversen and Rosenbluth's book, especially in light of more recent research on gender equality. I'll highlight some of my favourites below.

https://twitter.com/edenhofer_jacob/status/1727280137681457169

Just to echo Jacob's point: Read @PikaGoldin!!!
Goldin, Claudia. 2006. ‘The Quiet Revolution That Transformed Women’s Employment, Education, and Family’. American Economic Review 96(2): 1–21.
--. 2014. ‘A Grand Gender Convergence: Its Last Chapter’. American Economic Review 104(4): 1091–1119. doi:10.1257/aer.104.4.1091.
--. 2023. ‘Why Women Won’. doi:10.3386/w31762.

Want to stop paying for Github copilot? Dont wait any longer. Here a simple step-by-step instruction on how you can integrate any LLM trained on code into your workflows.

Step 1: Download + Install Ollama
ollama.com/download Step 2: If you dont have already, download and install VScode (my preferred coding environment right now) and then
Step 3: install the continue extension

Daniel makes an important point. Do check out his great work with @melissaleesands.
Let add some thoughts: while the conventionel Meltzer-Richard model leads us to expect the demand for redistribution to decline with income, exposure to the negative
nature.com/articles/s4158…

https://twitter.com/dandekadt/status/1815492867659325926

externalities of inequality - notably crime - is an important reason why support for redistribution among the rich is often fairly high. Indeed, this is what Rueda and Stegmueller argue in their nice @AJPS_Editor piece and their '19 book.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.111…

We have to talk about something. Something that has been missing for much of the short 2024 General Election campaign in the UK. I know you had enough of it all. You had enough of red busses raining down cash on the NHS as you wait for an appointment.

In 2015, a consequential election delivered a majority for Brexit. In 2024, we can now study the economic impact of Brexit with data up to 2022. This is a thread in which I try to go full circle back to the origins of Brexit. But let me comment before on what we observe so far: Northern Ireland is barely affected by Brexit. Why is this so? Well, it effectively continues to be in a customs Union with the European Union. Further, there is free movement of people the Island of Island. So, Northern Ireland effectively remains in the single market.

The fact that the UK has an open companies registration system is an asset. Fast, easy company formation with low cash running cost is vital for startups. The fact that the UK does not have a system of (biometrical linked) national ID to provide identity verification is a sham... An open company register can evolve into a type of trust ledger -- a way for individuals or entrepreneurs to build up public trust. This could help reduce information asymmetries especially as startups may wish to raise cash at later stage. It may help lower financing costs.

Happy to share this new paper with @immanuelfeld. It links my work on austerity and climate action. In short, the paper suggests that large local government cuts following the global financial crisis may have impeded local governments ability to deliver climate action. Short 🧵 @immanuelfeld Let's go back to 2010 -- this marked the start of austerity following the global financial crisis. The cuts were quite severe with large nominal cuts to council spending across all domains. The map looks at total spending cuts -- there is a ton of heterogeneity.

I wish "the media", here @guardian would learn to properly cite. This would make it MUCH easier to actually detect when media outlets are referring to research output. The link to the "one study" is here: academic.oup.com/ej/article/132… Why does this matter? It is just poor journalistic practice to not attribute sources. But it also makes it hard for researchers to showcase that their research is part of the public discourse, which is not irrelevant when it comes to attracting research funds. I understand...

So, yes this does NOT go away as expected. A proper COVID-19 inquiry will look at ALL cock-ups, not just the ones directly due to specific policy choices. I think I understand WHY there was a need to stabilize hospitality sector... but theguardian.com/business/2023/… EOTHO was a stupid way of doing so. Here is the original thread from October 2020 where I explained what the paper is doing. Of course, I got attacked by lobbyists and special interest groups. It was not pleasant ...

https://twitter.com/fetzert/status/1322078576133525504

Today, in England, millions of voters make a choice in their #LocalElections2023. It’s a good time to share some new research that is related to two policy issues that will have touched many people over the last year: the #energycrisis & #crime.
📰 buff.ly/3Vys0w7
🧵⬇️ In a nutshell, the paper shows that much of the widely reported surge in burglaries & anti-social behaviour could have been avoided, had the government provided more targeted energy price subsidies or had UK invested more in making homes more energy efficient. Last summer, ...

Let me take you through the journey of writing this research paper that documents that #EatOutToHelpOut was causing more #COVID19 infections at a time when a vaccine was in sight.

https://twitter.com/fetzert/status/1322078576133525504

I usually dont do this because as an academic, the politics should be "irrelevant" to me. The timing of all of this #whatsappleak is dubious. My interpretation as a "citizen" (in quotes because of #Brexit I cant become British without giving up my German nationality), is that this is an attempt to attack PM Sunak who found a #Brexit compromise

And yes... Eat-out-to-help-out was being defended. But on what grounds? What was the welfare analysis behind it? Who were the experts consulted? What was their incentive structure? I must admit, I did feel attacked for doing what I think I should as an academic: research. #EOTHO @jdportes @peterjukes @BylineTimes @guardian In all of this we have to question why this stuff is coming out now. I am just observing but it does seem to me the WhatsApp messages are being used to dismantle the competition and the EOTHO story is being "buried" with Johnsons' party stories dominating. Its super interesting

After 5 months of intense work the @FT published this piece that involved a ton of hands-on work. Check it out ➡️ ig.ft.com/uk-energy-effi…. It looks sleek but I do want to raise a few further points that I think could be discussed differently
#EnergyCrisis #EnergyBills #energy Point 1: We provided bill estimates under multiple price scenarios. Treating the #EnergyPriceGuarantee as the "price" I find problematic. The EPG implies a #EnergySubsidy benefitting mostly the well off that we all need to fund through #austerity and/or higher #taxation. So this

So, @Jeremy_Hunt now did a full and welcome u-turn on the #minibudget2022. And they are starting to tackle another policy that needs fixing, the #EnergyPriceguarantee #EPG. Why should this happen? This is a story that can ultimately be summarised in these two pictures.... 1/.. On the left, we have a classic end-terrace house. On the right, well, you have a mansion. The big difference: energy consumption. The left needs around 15,000 kWh per year, the right one, at least 70,000 kWh. How does this compare to the average UK household? Well: 2/..

I start sounding like a broken record. The issue of UK is not primarily due to a high level of taxation but due to poor use of public money & the poor quality public goods bought in return. I have documented this across numerous pieces of careful research... here is a short 🧵⬇️

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1574687942471479296

Exhibit 1: Most of austerity was a drag on growth. In "Did #Austerity Cause #Brexit?" I show that austerity itself was contractionary and the tax that could have been collected on higher incomes without austerity would have easily saved as much as austerity was projected to save.

Does #COVID19 crowd out care for non COVID patients in the #NHS? Has this led to a loss of lives? Are the numbers negligible? The short answers are: yes, yes & no!
Paper ➡️ bit.ly/33XMyHB & a long🧵on how we capture non COVID19 excess deaths & much more ⬇️ 1/n Lets start with a headline result: we estimate that for every 30 #COVID deaths there is at least one avoidable non COVID excess death in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 hospitals. To arrive at this we use cool #NHS data which makes for a great #EconTwitter #econometrics #DataScience teaching example. 2/n