Thiemo Fetzer 🇪🇺🇺🇦 - same handle elsewhere Profile picture
Accidental Economist. Prof at @warwickecon and @unibonn. Visiting Prof @GRI_LSE. Fellow @STICERD_LSE. ERC STG. CEPR @cepr_org & Associate Editor @EJ_RES.
Dec 19 16 tweets 6 min read
This is a longer thread to connect some dots. It is so obvious to some to understand what "went wrong" in 2000s/2010s but as I keep saying deeds matter more than words. I will try to relate some academic work that speaks to this. This is also about understanding... Image The above is a status report on the G20 Data Gaps Initiative (DGI) tackling data deficiencies to improve policy-making. The Phase 3 started in, surprise surprise, 2022. Focus areas are 1️⃣ Climate Change 2️⃣ HH Distributional Info 3️⃣ Fintech/Fin Inclusion 4️⃣ Data Access/Sharing Image
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Nov 28 6 tweets 2 min read
How do spatially skewed economic shocks deepen gender employment gaps? New research by @sarthak_joshi who is on the market this year reveals that rising Chinese imports reshaped labor demand in India, disproportionately restricting women’s access to urban non-farm jobs... Image due to gendered commuting frictions.
Main finding: Improving transport infrastructure for women could have:
✅ Mitigated female labor force declines by 30% (2001–2011)
✅ Boosted total output by 0.4%
A stark case for policy intervention to empower women and grow economies. Image
Sep 2 29 tweets 9 min read
Interesting to read Iversen and Rosenbluth's book, especially in light of more recent research on gender equality. I'll highlight some of my favourites below. Just to echo Jacob's point: Read @PikaGoldin!!!
Goldin, Claudia. 2006. ‘The Quiet Revolution That Transformed Women’s Employment, Education, and Family’. American Economic Review 96(2): 1–21.
--. 2014. ‘A Grand Gender Convergence: Its Last Chapter’. American Economic Review 104(4): 1091–1119. doi:10.1257/aer.104.4.1091.
--. 2023. ‘Why Women Won’. doi:10.3386/w31762.
Aug 29 5 tweets 2 min read
Want to stop paying for Github copilot? Dont wait any longer. Here a simple step-by-step instruction on how you can integrate any LLM trained on code into your workflows.

Step 1: Download + Install Ollama
ollama.com/downloadImage Step 2: If you dont have already, download and install VScode (my preferred coding environment right now) and then
Step 3: install the continue extension Image
Jul 26 11 tweets 5 min read
Daniel makes an important point. Do check out his great work with @melissaleesands.
Let add some thoughts: while the conventionel Meltzer-Richard model leads us to expect the demand for redistribution to decline with income, exposure to the negative
nature.com/articles/s4158…

Image externalities of inequality - notably crime - is an important reason why support for redistribution among the rich is often fairly high. Indeed, this is what Rueda and Stegmueller argue in their nice @AJPS_Editor piece and their '19 book.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.111…
Jul 4 5 tweets 3 min read
We have to talk about something. Something that has been missing for much of the short 2024 General Election campaign in the UK. I know you had enough of it all. You had enough of red busses raining down cash on the NHS as you wait for an appointment. Image
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Jul 2 13 tweets 5 min read
In 2015, a consequential election delivered a majority for Brexit. In 2024, we can now study the economic impact of Brexit with data up to 2022. This is a thread in which I try to go full circle back to the origins of Brexit. But let me comment before on what we observe so far: Image Northern Ireland is barely affected by Brexit. Why is this so? Well, it effectively continues to be in a customs Union with the European Union. Further, there is free movement of people the Island of Island. So, Northern Ireland effectively remains in the single market. Image
Mar 11 17 tweets 6 min read
Happy to share this new paper with @immanuelfeld. It links my work on austerity and climate action. In short, the paper suggests that large local government cuts following the global financial crisis may have impeded local governments ability to deliver climate action. Short 🧵 Image @immanuelfeld Let's go back to 2010 -- this marked the start of austerity following the global financial crisis. The cuts were quite severe with large nominal cuts to council spending across all domains. The map looks at total spending cuts -- there is a ton of heterogeneity. Image
Jun 3, 2023 4 tweets 2 min read
I wish "the media", here @guardian would learn to properly cite. This would make it MUCH easier to actually detect when media outlets are referring to research output. The link to the "one study" is here: academic.oup.com/ej/article/132… Image Why does this matter? It is just poor journalistic practice to not attribute sources. But it also makes it hard for researchers to showcase that their research is part of the public discourse, which is not irrelevant when it comes to attracting research funds. I understand...
Jun 3, 2023 5 tweets 2 min read
So, yes this does NOT go away as expected. A proper COVID-19 inquiry will look at ALL cock-ups, not just the ones directly due to specific policy choices. I think I understand WHY there was a need to stabilize hospitality sector... but theguardian.com/business/2023/… EOTHO was a stupid way of doing so. Here is the original thread from October 2020 where I explained what the paper is doing. Of course, I got attacked by lobbyists and special interest groups. It was not pleasant ...
May 4, 2023 11 tweets 8 min read
Today, in England, millions of voters make a choice in their #LocalElections2023. It’s a good time to share some new research that is related to two policy issues that will have touched many people over the last year: the #energycrisis & #crime.
📰 buff.ly/3Vys0w7
🧵⬇️ Image In a nutshell, the paper shows that much of the widely reported surge in burglaries & anti-social behaviour could have been avoided, had the government provided more targeted energy price subsidies or had UK invested more in making homes more energy efficient. Last summer, ... ImageImageImageImage
Mar 4, 2023 29 tweets 15 min read
Let me take you through the journey of writing this research paper that documents that #EatOutToHelpOut was causing more #COVID19 infections at a time when a vaccine was in sight.

I usually dont do this because as an academic, the politics should be "irrelevant" to me. The timing of all of this #whatsappleak is dubious. My interpretation as a "citizen" (in quotes because of #Brexit I cant become British without giving up my German nationality), is that this is an attempt to attack PM Sunak who found a #Brexit compromise
Mar 4, 2023 7 tweets 7 min read
And yes... Eat-out-to-help-out was being defended. But on what grounds? What was the welfare analysis behind it? Who were the experts consulted? What was their incentive structure? I must admit, I did feel attacked for doing what I think I should as an academic: research. #EOTHO @jdportes @peterjukes @BylineTimes @guardian In all of this we have to question why this stuff is coming out now. I am just observing but it does seem to me the WhatsApp messages are being used to dismantle the competition and the EOTHO story is being "buried" with Johnsons' party stories dominating. Its super interesting
Nov 16, 2022 15 tweets 10 min read
After 5 months of intense work the @FT published this piece that involved a ton of hands-on work. Check it out ➡️ ig.ft.com/uk-energy-effi…. It looks sleek but I do want to raise a few further points that I think could be discussed differently
#EnergyCrisis #EnergyBills #energy ImageImageImage Point 1: We provided bill estimates under multiple price scenarios. Treating the #EnergyPriceGuarantee as the "price" I find problematic. The EPG implies a #EnergySubsidy benefitting mostly the well off that we all need to fund through #austerity and/or higher #taxation. So this
Oct 17, 2022 11 tweets 5 min read
So, @Jeremy_Hunt now did a full and welcome u-turn on the #minibudget2022. And they are starting to tackle another policy that needs fixing, the #EnergyPriceguarantee #EPG. Why should this happen? This is a story that can ultimately be summarised in these two pictures.... 1/.. On the left, we have a classic end-terrace house. On the right, well, you have a mansion. The big difference: energy consumption. The left needs around 15,000 kWh per year, the right one, at least 70,000 kWh. How does this compare to the average UK household? Well: 2/..
Sep 27, 2022 8 tweets 4 min read
I start sounding like a broken record. The issue of UK is not primarily due to a high level of taxation but due to poor use of public money & the poor quality public goods bought in return. I have documented this across numerous pieces of careful research... here is a short 🧵⬇️ Exhibit 1: Most of austerity was a drag on growth. In "Did #Austerity Cause #Brexit?" I show that austerity itself was contractionary and the tax that could have been collected on higher incomes without austerity would have easily saved as much as austerity was projected to save.
Jan 25, 2022 19 tweets 15 min read
Does #COVID19 crowd out care for non COVID patients in the #NHS? Has this led to a loss of lives? Are the numbers negligible? The short answers are: yes, yes & no!
Paper ➡️ bit.ly/33XMyHB & a long🧵on how we capture non COVID19 excess deaths & much more ⬇️ 1/n Lets start with a headline result: we estimate that for every 30 #COVID deaths there is at least one avoidable non COVID excess death in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 hospitals. To arrive at this we use cool #NHS data which makes for a great #EconTwitter #econometrics #DataScience teaching example. 2/n
Nov 15, 2021 13 tweets 9 min read
What is the epidemiological impact of a #falsenegative #COVID test? An important question in a high vaxx/low NPI context, but one that cannot be studied in a experiment for obvious reasons. Enter the UK, a reliable supplier of #naturalexperiments. 🧵⬇️
➡️bit.ly/3DhqQv5 Image On Oct 15, @UKHSA suspended an #Immensa lab, because of community reports of neg PCR tests following a pos lateral flow. There was loads of excellent reporting e.g. by @rowenamason @tomjs @JamieGrierson. NHS TT estimates that 43,000 individuals may have been given a .. 2/N ImageImage
Jun 23, 2021 12 tweets 11 min read
Today is the 5th year anniversary of the 2016 EU referendum vote in which the UK had narrowly voted to #Leave the European Union. Unlike Trump, the impact is permanent and already caused notable damage. Here is a 🧵 of 🧵 with some past work and deliberations on #Brexit... 1/... In one of the first papers we asked "Who voted for #Brexit?". The paper is a systematic correlational analysis of what is common to #Leave support across districts and within cities & we also show that a #Brexit model can predict LePen voting. Link: goo.gl/VzBo57 2/
Mar 9, 2021 5 tweets 4 min read
So I am going to report on some lack of progress about a #FOIA request we launched to @PHE_uk last Nov to make data available on the #Excel error that resulted in 15k #COVID19 cases to not be contact traced in a timely fashion (whatdotheyknow.com/request/region…). The response so far is ... quite underwhelming. In the paper we reverse engineer the geographic distribution of the missing cases which is far from perfect. We find that places with higher exposure to the contact tracing error saw a notable differential increase in infections and subsequent deaths.
Feb 28, 2021 16 tweets 7 min read
So @UKHofficial did have a look at my paper on #EOHO and #COVID19 - they have gone to some lengths to try to cast doubt about my research, the methods & results (see ukhospitality.org.uk/page/SafeReope…). So here are their point-by-point lines of attack on my work and my response. Thread 🧵⬇️ Point 1: Misunderstanding the research design and aggregate data fallacy 1/