We apply (a lot of variations) on regional quarterly GDP as well as annual district-level Gross-value added data for the UK. In total, for districts we construct a total of 100+ synthetic control estimates to assess concerns of overfitting - below plot is the case of Lewisham 3..
I want to share a new paper. Its relevant to #GE2019. The findings are quite exemplary of the misguidedness of much of economic & social policy under the #ConservativeParty. It should be a harbinger to wary voters: there is more of the same under the Tories & with #Brexit. 1/..
The short summary: the reform to housing benefit from 2011 onwards was intended to save the public purse hundreds of millions. But quite the reverse happened: not only did it create huge amounts of misery and agony, it also ended up not saving the public much money at all. 2/..
What happened? From April 2011 onwards, local housing allowance was massively cut from covering up to the median level of rents, to only cover up to the 30th percentile of market rents. Here is a map of how this affected households in terms of expected losses per week. 3/..
So why I think the #GE2019 is really not done yet. A short thread. The summary: I think a hung parliament is still a very likely and a desirable outcome for the UK. I first present some evidence on the former, and then my view on the desirability on the latter. #Brexit
1. Most opinion polls now point to a #Cons maj, including yesterday's @YouGov MRP. MRP is great in the tool box, but still relies on raw polling data. Here, bit.ly/2q0iSFW, I argue here that YouGov samples for BES do appear structurally different and potentially biased
2. Opinion polls are still mostly conducted at national level, ignoring constituency-level factors. My PhD student @EleAla shows that in UK, turnout tends to be systematically lower the "safer" a seat is. And this effect is increasing in the poll national lead of the incumbent..
On my way to Berlin for the launch of @ForumNewEconomy. I ll be talking about "Why #Brexit votes happen: An evaluation of the impact of #austerity".
Unfortuantely, there is much more I would like to say... but can't within 10 minutes. So here is what's missing out...
In the run up to 2016 #EURef, the UK was actually slowly and gradually becoming more pro European if you believe 30 @EurobarometerEU studies since 2000.
The 2016 #EURef is culmination of political developments with UK's electoral system playing a crucial role. Here a short thread why & how #austerity induced voter shifts affected election dynamics, pushing Cameron into holding #Brexit referendum:
The paper traces the rapid rise of #UKIP after 2010, and the developing of anti-establishment and growing polarisation along key socio-economic divides over time.
And highlights that #austerity policies, in particular, the hollowing out of the welfare state since 2010 induced many individuals to adopt anti-establishment sentiment -- these were successfully channeled into votes for #Leave and #UKIP
The #RevokeArticle50#RevokeArticle50Petition is the petition that has seen broadest support of any parliamentary petition in UK's political history if I am not wrong. It is inconceivable that among the signatories there are only individuals who voted #Remain in 2016...
Yet, most opinion polls still suggest only a small swing to #Remain. How can we make sense of this?
A remarkable observation from online polls such as the British Election study @besresearch (using @YouGov) is that among participants in these polls, self-reported turnout in the EU referendum is huge -- 92.5% of BES panel wave participants stated that they voted in the #EURef
Going after #Trump? Evidence from the #tradewar. This is a brief thread describing a new paper that it is joint work with Carlo Schwarz @Warwick_Econ PhD student (going on the market this year). The paper circulates as @cepr_org - ungated WP ssrn.com/abstract=33490…
The question we ask is quite simple: were the retaliation measures triggered by China, the #EU, and the #NAFTA against Trump's tariffs politically targeted? We study the trade escalation triggered by US steel tariffs and various #Section301#tariffs.
Interestingly, this is the first trade dispute in a long time that actually escalated to that level. The last case that came close was also the case of steel tariffs in the early 2000s -- but then retaliation measures, while being threatened, were never triggered as US caved in.
Even more gold from @BESResearch -- while I do think that online opinion polls are generally extremely problematic due to the likely significant selection bias that it introduces, there is still some signal in the data that tells us about the nature of #leave support in 2016.
Waves 7/8 asked participants what they expect how the EU referendum is going to pan out... i.e. it asked what probability respondents attach to a #Leave vote, some subsequent waves ask whether people regret how they vote.
20 - 30% of respondents stated the probability of a #Leave success is less than 40%. Now, the nice thing is the BES also subsequently asked, how people voted and whether they regret how they voted -- it asks whether people are #remainernow
1. A short story of #Brexit in four acts. Act 1) in 2010 Coalition comes to power and presses on with dramatic #austerity, wrecking the UK's social compact... causing massive economic harm...leading to 2015 General Election
Lets try sth -- using large scale @Survation estimates of support from a comprehensive 20k strong poll across the UK, we can see which constituencies have swung from #Leave in 2016 to #Remain if there was a rerun of the 2016 #EUref ...a map and the 10 biggest swings to Remain
Swing away from #Leave is widespread and happening broadly across the UK, specifically in England, Wales, Cornwall and the North. Overall estimated level of support for Leave is 6 percentage points lower across UK, but masks significant heterogeneity. 2/
We follow similar approach as in earlier work with @essobecker and @DennisNovy to decompose the geographic variation to identify which factors are capturing the variation across the UK in the swing away from #Leave to #Remain.... 3/
Did #Austerity Cause #Brexit? I have received some comments on the paper that have engaged with the data, but am more than happy to stand my ground. Here is why...
Recently, Noah Carl @NuffieldCollege studied national level opinion poll time series, arguing that the lack of evidence of an uptick in post 2010 support for Leave is evidence suggesting that austerity had nothing to do with #Brexit. See his comment here osf.io/zbgt3/
So what are the problems with this approach. 1) Opinion polls do not rely on the same sampling population, so a lot of time variation that is so crucial given the tight referendum results are well within the margins of error