Things are getting heated! #Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) have come out in force, with selling pressure hitting -366K #BTC/month - the highest since April 2024. But who is actually selling? Let’s dig deeper:
🧵👇 glassno.de/4fJoWGC Among LTHs, the 6m-12m cohort led the charge, spending an average of 25.6K BTC/day in profits. Most of the recent selling activity came from this specific group of investors: glassno.de/3CF66lA

Following the SECs 13 civil charges against the leading cryptocurrency Exchange Binance, the Exchange experienced a net outflow of -10.5K BTC, with only 11 trading days recording larger outflows.

However, the current value remains a significant -29.8K BTC (-74%) smaller than the… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… When assessing the net outflow in USD terms, we note a value of -$277M, the 15th largest on record. Again, when comparing this to the peak net outflow of $1.04B, the current value remains -$763M (-73%) smaller.

Dominance of #Bitcoin supply has seen a dramatic shift over the last two years.

US entities are now holding 11% less $BTC than they were in June 2022, whilst investors active during Asian trading hours have picked up 9.9%.

This is a distinct reversal from the 2020-21 bull cycle We can see major shifts underway in stablecoins, with #USDT supply at new ATHs, whilst #USDC and #BUSD fall to multi-year lows.

Given stablecoins are non-interest-bearing, and regulatory pressure in US is building, it suggests US capital is now less active in digital assets.

The past week has witnessed a series of significant governance proposals 📜 and votes 🗳️ by major players within the DeFi space, including Lido, Maker and UniSwap.

What are the economic implications of these decisions and the future course for these protocols?

A thread🧵 twitter.com/i/web/status/1… On May 15th, LidoDAO successfully passed a governance proposal, leading to the launch of Lido V2. This upgrade introduces stake withdrawals and a staking router, a modular infrastructure for validator pools.

Now, new nodes can be registered with Lido in a permissionless manner,… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

On May 11th and 12th, the #Ethereum network experienced two occasions where over 60% of the validators stopped performing their duties, causing a loss in Finality.

Finality refers to the state where a supermajority of validators (2/3 of the total stake) have attested to the… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… With up to 60% of validators offline and absent in consensus responsibilities, the performance of the chain was degraded. About 3.68% of daily slots were missed and 253 blocks not proposed on time. This remains significantly lower than the 658 blocks missed across the Shapella… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

#Bitcoin daily transaction counts are approaching All-time-highs, seeing an explosive uptick in 2023.

With the emergence of Inscriptions, analysts now need to assess how much of this is driven by Inscriptions vs monetary transfers.

A quick 🧵 to explore
glassno.de/41PQYtj We start with our #Bitcoin mempool, where we see a marked character shift this year.

The sharp fee pressure spike during FTX stands out, as does the sustained fee pressure in 2023.

These plateaus are aligned with three waves of Inscriptions, as people rushed to get in under 1M

#Bitcoin block 787,500 will be mined shortly, which means we're ~1yr from the next halving event

We have also released a new dashboard exploring the tremendous growth of #Bitcoin over each halving epoch

📊 glassno.de/3oIIpSc

A quick 🧵covering BTC growth by halving cycle. The extraordinary trajectory of #Bitcoin requires a log scale to visualize properly

Each of the following charts are indexed to 100 on the halving, to display performance over each halving epoch

$BTC Market Cap growth remains explosive
1️⃣: 470x
2️⃣: 80x
3️⃣: 16x
4️⃣: 2.5x (so far)

The topic of #Bitcoin supply concentration is a favourite for critics of the asset.

In our latest research piece, we explore how the smallest HODLers of $BTC, the Shrimp (< 1 $BTC) 🦐 and Crab (< 10 $BTC)🦀 are in fact last cycles largest accumulators.

insights.glassnode.com/bitcoin-supply… We revisit our prior research, and compare the change in #Bitcoin wallets over the course of the 2021-23 cycle.

What we find is that small entities, with < 50 $BTC have absorbed the largest volume of coins, sourced from Whales, Miners and Exchanges.

insights.glassnode.com/bitcoin-supply…

#Bitcoin MVRV Ratio is one of the most popular and widely used on-chain metrics.

However, much of the power of MVRV is rarely put to use.

The MVRV can be supercharged, and used to find cycle extremes, market trends, and for early warning of cycle peaks.

glassno.de/3SkFFW0 We start the piece with the basics, exploring the fundamentals of #Bitcoin MVRV, and what makes it tick.

Next we quantify the proportion of trading days above or below, to help define extreme values, and assign probabilities to these key levels.

📊 glassno.de/41vFjQC

Navigating a #Bitcoin bear is hard work, and there are no silver bullets, nor single metrics that tell us when it ends.

In our latest analysis, we cover ten on-chain indicators that can help us identify the turning of the market tides.

insights.glassnode.com/ten-indicators… In this piece, we present ten #Bitcoin indicators, across several on-chain concepts, which can be used to identify confluence, and market strength.

What we are seeking is a positive shift in network activity, and $BTC holder psychology, back towards more positive sentiment.

Following the collapse of FTX, #Bitcoin investors have been withdrawing coins to self-custody at a historic rate of 106k $BTC/month.

This compares with only three other times:
- Apr 2020
- Nov 2020
- June-July 2022

glassno.de/3g3mt0i This has resulted in positive balance changes across all wallet cohorts, from shrimp to whales.

The failure of FTX has created a very distinct change in #Bitcoin holder behaviour across all cohorts.

With the recent collapse of the #FTX exchange, we have undertaken studies to assess the scale and relationship of on-chain flows over the last 1yr.

The following thread covers 🧵
- Fund flows between #FTX, #Alameda, #Binance
- The complete decline of #FTX exchange reserves Over the last year, since the market ATH, #Ethereum wallets associated with #Alameda Research have primarily interacted with two entities, weighted by all token USD value transferred:

- FTX = ~90%
- Binance = ~9%
- Other = ~1%

The last 48hrs have seen a series of dramatic events unfold related to FTX and Binance exchanges

In response, we have seen #Bitcoin aSOPR drop to 0.9, signalling the average spender was realizing a 10% loss.

This is as severe as June sell-off, when prices first fell to $17.5k. On a net USD basis, this equates to just over $1B in #Bitcoin net losses in a single day.

Whilst this is a significant sum, it is certainly not the largest, with the 14-June sell-off hitting over $4.2B in losses, the largest in this cycle.

#Bitcoin Difficulty has adjusted to a new all-time-high due to a rapid increase in network hashpower.

This increases the $BTC cost of production, and puts additional stress on miners.

We have launched a new dashboard tracking miner capitulation risk🧵
glassno.de/3CNddGc This dashboard steps through a series of checks and tools to determine the income stress on #Bitcoin miners.

The first is an estimated cost of production using the Difficulty Regression model.

This now estimates $BTC production cost at $19.3k, exactly on current spot prices.

The last three consecutive days have been the largest USD denominated Realized Loss in #Bitcoin history.

Over $7.325B in $BTC losses have been locked in by investors spending coins that were accumulated at higher prices.

A thread exploring this in more detail 🧵
1/9 Over the course of the last three days, approximately 555k $BTC have changed hands between prices of $18k and $23k.

This chart shows the on-chain price distribution by age bands:
🟥 are < 1wk old coins (recently changed hands)
🟧 are 1m to 1yr old coins
🟩 are > 1yr old

2/9

The #Ethereum DeFi sector experienced a major de-leveraging event, with $124B wiped from DeFi TVL in 6-weeks.

In our latest research piece, we analyse the dramatic decline in crypto-collateral value, and the impacts on $ETH network profitability

🧵1/6

glassno.de/defi_deleverag… Early warning signs of a DeFi slowdown started to manifest after the Nov ATH, as #Ethereum on-chain activity, and gas prices declined.

This signalled a reduction in demand profile, and accompanied a decline in #DeFi related transaction activity.

2/6

We are pleased to release a suite of 4x New Pre-set Dashboards.

They are designed help Glassnode users explore and upskill in on-chain concepts for #Bitcoin

The first is for Navigating Tops and Bottoms using tools developed by analysts over recent years

glassno.de/3O1l8Td Next we have an Introduction to On-chain Activity

We can use metrics that describe the network effects of #Bitcoin to assess whether the user-base is growing, contracting, healthy, or otherwise

Often this aligns closely with bull and bear market cycles.

glassno.de/3aYZGzD

What #Ethereum applications have the highest demand? To find out, we followed where users spent the most gas.

In our latest research piece, we explore the dynamic and ever changing usage profile of #Ethereum, from #ERC20 tokens, to #DeFi, to #NFTs

1/5🧵

glassno.de/etherverse Over time, #Ethereum has been many things, and we can clearly see these trends emerge within Gas consumption dominance.

Notable #Ethereum usage dominance today:
- 30% NFTs
- 13% DeFi
- 8% $ETH transfers
- 5% Stablecoins
- 5% Bridges

2/5

Live Chart: glassno.de/39Uw5Xx

Tracking on-chain #Bitcoin accumulation can be complex and nuanced to accurately analyse.

We are pleased to release the #Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score, a metric designed to track when larger players or a large part of the market is accumulating.

1/4🧵
glassno.de/3J3grpJ 2/4
We combine wallet participation in different cohorts, with balance change to assess buy-side pressure.

This idea was first pioneered by @ecoinometrics, and further refined and entity-adjusted by our team.

Methods and examples in Glassnode Academy.

glassno.de/3pV0iuW

The #Bitcoin network has just settled almost $9B in change-adjusted volume within a single block.

Alongside a recent increase in wallet address > 100 $BTC, this raises questions as to whether it is whale accumulation.

Charts below are 7-day view at 10min resolution.

1/4 What we see is that there has been a peak of only $225M in $BTC value withdrawn from all exchanges we track in this time period.

This is much lower than the $9.0B in total volume.

As such it is unlikely this volume and address count spike represents a massive buyer(s).

2/4

Assessing the $BTC Sell-off🧵:

#Bitcoin holders realised the third largest on-chain capitulation in history over the weekend, with over $2.18B in realised losses.

This compares to:
- $1.38B in March 2020
- $2.65B in May
- $3.45B in June

1/4

Live Chart: glassno.de/3EzM8os Question is, which cohort of #Bitcoin holders were realising these losses?

If we look to Long-Term Holder supply, we can actually see their total holdings are unchanged over the past week

This makes it more probable it was recent buyers

2/4

Live Chart: glassno.de/3pBlhlE