🧵 Your Cheat Sheet on why Gaza War dragged on:
1- Israel: Correctly crushed Islamist Iran and its axis that launched October 7. Israel's exit strategy required a reliable Arab or Palestinian partner to take over Gaza. But until Israel got a reliable partner, Netanyahu was not willing to stick his neck out. The last time Bibi bet on Arafat, thinking their breakthrough Wye River would lead to peace, Hamas suicide bombed the deal and Bibi's premiership, forcing him to wander for years outside of power.
Hamas needs to be replaced in Gaza. PLO (Abbas) is unreliable like Arafat. Bibi looked for Arab partners, found only one. But this one was being crowded out. Below is the break down of Arab players in Gaza: 2- Qatar has the most duplicitous foreign policy on the planet. One one hand, it wants to be America's closest partner, on the other, it allies with the most anti-American and anti-Israeli Muslim Brotherhood organizations, such as Hamas in Gaza. Under Hamas, Gaza was like a Qatar protectorate governed by Qatari Ambassador Imadi. But Hamas committed Oct 7, Israel wanted it out, and Qatar used all the influence its money has been buying it inside Washington to reverse Hamas's death warrant. With Prez Trump saying Hamas wants peace, Doha seems to have succeeded in its push. With Qatar is also Turkey by virtue of being Islamist and a global sponsor of Muslim Brotherhood, including Hamas.

Islamist #Qatar insists that it wants peace between #Israel and the Palestinians. Below are the three Qatari policies, all of them lead to the annihilation of the Jewish state. 🧵 1/ Official Qatar line, as articulated by its Emir Tamim bin Hamad, is the two-state solution as outlined by the Arab Peace Initiative (API).
Problem with API is that it demands that one million Israelis leave the to-be-Palestine, creating a Jew-free Arab-only Palestine, and that 5.9 million Palestinians registered with UNRWA move to Israel, thus Israel will stop being Jewish state and will become majority Arab. Jewish nationhood ends.

This is your reminder that there are no freelancing or loose canon clans in #Syria attacking the Druze. Every bullet shot at the Druze is planned, funded, logistically supported by three of Jolani's henchemen. Check them out 👇🧵 1- Jolani's Chief of Intelligence Hussein al-Salamah (right), who replaced the earlier chief Anas al-Khattab. Hussein is from the northeastern Deir Ez-Zor clan of Ugaydaat, the main muscle in the "clans' attack" on the Druze in south #Syria.

If you are Shia Muslim, your belief states that the mosque that Prophet Muhammad stopped at, on his way to ascend to heaven and back, is the one on the left, in Kufa, #Iraq, not the one on the right, in Jerusalem, #Israel.
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2/ When Shia Muslims visit the Mosque of Kufa, they pray two rakaas at the spot you see below, known as the Corner of Prophet Muhammad.

THREAD - 1/ On Thursday Jan. 9, 128 #Lebanon parliamentarians convene to elect a president, who can either finish off Hezbollah or allow it to rebound — regroup and rearm.
Because the stakes are high for the pro Islamist #Iran militia, its top official said this: 2/ TRANSCRIPT - Wafiq Safa, Jan. 5, 2025: “We told them, we don’t have a veto on Army Commander [Joseph Aoun], the only veto we have is on Samir Geagea, because he [Geagea] is a project for destruction, a project for war, a project for fitna in the country, otherwise we are open to anyone, and this issue is being handled by Speaker Nabih Berri with [us] Hezbollah and our other allies in this country.”

Some friends asked why I consider Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) to be Shia when its leadership insist that they are Sunni. My response is in this 🧵:
My argument: “Whereas Hamas is an ally of Islamist Iran, PIJ is Iran’s proxy. In contrast to the overwhelming Sunni majority among Palestinians, PIJ is mostly Shia, which hampers its ability to recruit. However, PIJ has emerged as Hamas’s junior partner. As Israel’s campaign to decimate Hamas nears its end, it makes sense that the Jewish state is now eradicating the smaller remaining Palestinian terrorist group.” — Hussain Abdul-Hussain, Research Fellow

fdd.org/analysis/2024/… 1/ Despite Iran’s enormous resources behind it, PIJ’s membership is barely 1,500, compared to its competitor and less-resourced Hamas at 25,000. The Palestinian Muslim population is almost 100 percent Sunni and antagonistic to Shia. Converts are socially shamed and even bullied. This has hampered PIJ’s recruitment. Even if PIJ claims to be Sunni, it should be seen like Syria’s Alawites and Yemen’s Zeydis, both non-Shia who are often as depicted as Shia because of their alliance with their Iran.

1- #Lebanon oligarchs met today (pic, from Left: Sunni PM Makati, Shia Speaker Berri, Druze leader Jumblatt) understood that #Israel killing of Nasrallah has changed domestic balance substantially, are now congregating to boost state, fill the gap. This 🧵highlights 2 changes: 2- The fist measurable change is that state/oligarchs, who until last week insisted Lebanon ceasefire with Israel could not be untied form a Gaza ceasefire, have since Nasrallah's death dropped Gaza condition and are seeking unconditional Lebanese ceasefire with Israel, promising to revive UN mechanism -- Resolution 1701 that never worked under Nasrallah -- for that purpose.

Leftover Hezbollah still insist that ceasefire be tied to Gaza, so now you can see the divergence between the Lebanese oligarchs/state with the Iran-backed militia.

The oligarchs/state cannot be taken for their word. They should be tested by first enforcing UN 1701: Ordering what's left of Hezbollah to surrender its arms to Lebanese Army, then Israel will agree to the 1949 Truce between the two sides.

https://x.com/almodononline/status/1841501912190878175

Saw a heated debate over the Kufiyya, with an Iraqi arguing this was her national heritage and Palestinians denying appropriation and calling her a Zionist sellout. Before the idea of Palestine was born as an independent Arab country in 1964, Palestinians never referred to themselves as Palestinians, but as Arabs of Palestine, perceiving of Palestine as another Arab province that should join the greater Arab nation. Hence, without a national character, it did not make sense to use a specific emblem or symbol (the Palestinian flag is the Hashemite 1916 Great Arab Revolt flag, Jordan uses an almost identical variation of it).
But if you don't believe me, look at the picture of Arabs of Palestine in 1919 demanding they join the Hashemite Arab kingdom of Faisal in Damascus. Show me a single Arab of Palestine wearing a Kufiyyah: This is a similar conference held in Haifa in 1920. Banners in background read Palestine is Arab (they don't say sovereign or independent). Again, show me a single Arab of Palestine wearing a Kufiyyah:

Al-Jazeera, the mouthpiece of political Islam (Islamism), celebrates encampments and protests at U.S. college campuses as the beginning of a transformation in "American political culture."

Islamism has a goal far beyond Gaza: Undermining Western "political culture," especially liberty, equality, and to a much lesser extent democracy (as in election). The paragraph below is from the book Caliphate, authored by the father of Islamism, Lebanese Rashid Rida (d. 1935), in which he argued that an Islamist government should be free of Western laws and tradition, i.e. "political culture."

I was once a student at the American University of Beirut (@AUB_Lebanon), and I was fascinated by pro-Palestine activists who had been in my shoes decades earlier. I read every word in the university archives, learnt the history, and was determined on mimicking it. I helped revive the student publication after a 22-year hiatus (forced to shut down by #Lebanon civil war), and I became its editor-in-chief for four years. I ran for election and served on student government twice, was one of the most active student organizers on campus. I had a feeling that Palestine was the victim, totally in the right, and everybody else -- #Israel, US, the establishment, my parents -- were in the wrong.

My obsession saw me chase the activists that I idolized, and I managed to sit with many of them (they were my parents age by then, the age of the grandparents of today's college students). To my dismay, most of them had changed and moved on, or, as one of them put it to me, "we matured." I too matured, eventually, but only after realizing -- through personal experience -- that Palestine does not exist, not because of Israelis, but because of Palestinians.

Below is a quick story about the tumultuous AUB events in the 1970s: In 1971, the AUB student Council held a sit in that was coupled with a coup-like student takeover of university buildings. Headed by Economics MA student Maher Masri, the council even appointed a student as a Dean of Arts and Sciences. The students demanded that AUB walk back a tuition increase, but also to have a say in all university affairs, including budget and received US aid. Some students proposed to change the name of the university to take out the word American, given America's support of Israel and all the other abominations that evil America had presumably committed.
AUB canceled the school year in 1971. Below, you see a picture of the campus's main gate, with a sit in, and "unfinished year." Students could not graduate or finish their degrees that year. The other picture captures student "siege" of faculty and administration, and the female students preparing food for the male students holding the siege.

I hesitated before stepping into this minefield.
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1/ Reaction focused on 2 points: Extremism associated with Ben Gvir and possible change in status quo (can cause war). Additionally, many Arabs were angry over Jewish access to what they believe is Muslim religious compound. 2/ Extremism or not of Ben Gvir is not the issue. Arabs get angry at all Jews — deemed extremist or moderate — who walk through this compound, call these walks “storming” of compound, describe Jews as “settlers.”

A friend in Beirut, #Lebanon, posted the lines which I copy below. The effect of the #Iran regime is horrible, across the Middle East.
THREAD - 1/You wake up in sweat, in total darkness, no electricity to boil water for your coffee, boiling water using scarce gas is a waste. 2/ You start your day by checking US dollar rate. You queue up for hours at gas station, scared that a frustrated customer would get angry and pull out a gun, or that a fight might erupt, only to be told station ran out of gas when there's only two more cars in front of you

THREAD: 1- One problem in conduct of many Muslims in Western countries is that they use Islam as an identity marker, to stand out, to carve a communal space and avoid assimilation, thus being part of a global cult that behaves like a cross-national, borderless nation 2- These Muslims who insist on having their religious identity trump their national (Western) identity insist that governments should allow them to practice their faith. But their faith -- if practiced to the letter -- undermines the very republic they are citizens of.

THREAD: #Iran intelligence tricked Zam into believing that Grand Shia Ayatollah in #Iraq Ali Sistani had invited him to Najaf. When Zam showed up, Iran kidnapped him from Iraq, will hang him soon on charges of "spreading corruption on earth."
reut.rs/3gEIwpM Don't expect America's woke voices, from @washingtonpost to @nytimes and from @BernieSanders and @AOC (both who Tweeted against capital punishment) to wage a campaign against such flagrant Iranian barbarity.

THREAD - Anyone who's read Hanna Arendt will see Trump as a clear case of a tyrant-in-the-making. The rise of rogue rulers is incumbent on suspension of reason, which Trump has skillfully done by painting anything that disagrees with him as fake /1 Trump then replaced reality with his own fake alternative narrative. He then imagines himself as the victim of a conspiracy. A victim usually absolves him/herself from the rules, because others have presumably unfairly violated these rules. Whataboutism becomes a rule. /2

Thread-Friends in Maryland, I just wrote to our senator @ChrisVanHollen to voice my frustration over his bias toward #Iran. Today, he participated in a bash #Saudi Arabia panel. While I support human rights, I think that either America does it everywhere, or not do it anywhere. When human rights is not part of our calculus, then Saudi Arabia is our ally, and Iran is our enemy. Otherwise, the senator is being unfair, and probably beholden to invisible special interests. Feel free to copy my letter to him and use the attached page to send it.

How do these academics get their licenses? How can one write history with modern day slogans. "The British and American empires mutually reinforced the notion that black and indigenous lives did not matter." washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/0… When did the lives of any peasants, of any race, in any human civilization, matter, before the 20th century? Indigenous tribes fought one another ferociously, on top of their wars with the colonials, who were not united either (Spanish v British v French).

In May 2018, Biden Foreign Policy's Jake Sullivan wrote about #Iran:
Sanctions are more effective when world is actively cooperating with US to pressure Iran, less effective when world is actively cooperating with Iran to frustrate US by looking for workarounds, dragging feet. In May 2020, Jake Sullivan reversed himself, said:
Unilateral US withdrawal from the international accord and the reimposition of sanctions on Tehran proved the power of the US dollar and the US financial system.

THREAD - Independent thinking is a prerequisite for a healthy democracy. When sensationalism, tribalism and emotions replace accuracy, liberty and interests, democracy will be jeopardized. Over the past few days: - Liberty-loving Republicans, who associate strong government with tyranny, have been calling for the deployment of combat troops to police Americans

Thread - #Khamenei's hate speech aside, his series of Tweets and this poster are illustrative of the extreme superficiality and shallow intellectual capabilities of the Iranian leadership. 1- A referendum over what to make of the land of Palestine is to happen after it is already called Palestine and its flags raised over everything.
2- Free and fair referendums are best held with armed militias deployed everywhere.

Thread - Questions to follow #Democrats on their support of Iran nuclear deal with #Iran regime:
1- How do you square the “Green New Deal” with insistence on lifting sanctions on Iran’s oil and gas exports if nuclear deal is reinstated? 2- How do you square “Love is Love” with Iran’s unabashed instigation and execution of Iranian #LGBTQIA community?