Some very interesting vote share numbers. In urban seats (major cities), NDA's vote share this time - 52.8%. 2019 - 48%. But in semi-urban, semi-rural and rural seats - 39.9% vs 42.5%, 37.3% vs 42% and 44.1% vs 44.9%. Its the mofussil towns where the BJP has had a fall. 1/n Startling numbers from #UttarPradesh. Vote shares - BJP+: 44.12% (BJP: 42.13%), INDIA: 42.7% (SP: 31.98%, INC: 10.64%), BSP: 9.2%. Massive increase in INDIA vote share. 2/n

Next in the series on #excessdeaths in India: #Maharashtra. We find that excess deaths were 2.8-4.1 times the official COVID19 toll between April 2020 and May 2021.
thehindu.com/news/national/… (1/n) The online registrations data showed 6,67,900 & 6,93,800 deaths in 2018 and 2019 : 63.9% & 66.6% of the CRS' (2019) numbers. Plus some 6 districts had inconsistent data in 2018 and 2019. To come up with a clearer "excess deaths" estimate, we omitted them for adjustment (2/n)

Next in the series on #excessdeaths that we are tracking State and city-wise across the country: Himachal Pradesh. "Excess deaths" here were just about twice the official COVID19 tally between April 2020 and May 2021: thehindu.com/news/national/… (1/n) #Himachal had an interesting pattern. While deaths peaked in May 2021, the excess deaths multiple over the actual COVID19 death count was higher in 2020 (in the 1st wave: 2.8) than in 2021 (1.6). (2/n)

#Vaccination reality check: Yesterday marked the highest number of jabs in a single day in India. thehindu.com/news/national/… But as this shows, the peak seems artificial: scroll.in/article/998156…. Remains to be seen if supply constraints have been eased to maintain this pace. (1/n) The pace of vaccination has definitely picked up but there are miles to go before targets are reached. Here is what, that remains to be done. (2/n) @the_hindu #Datapoint by @i_sumantsen and @nihalani_jasmin

Excess deaths in #Karnataka were nearly 6 times (5.77) the COVID19 death toll from April 2020 to May 2021. That's close to the undercount factor in Tamil Nadu (6.2). My colleague Sharath S & I find based on monthwise #CRS data from 2015 to 2021 (1/n) thehindu.com/news/national/… Karnataka recorded an estimated 1,67,888 excess deaths over the baseline mortality for five years (2015-19) in the pre-pandemic years. Graph shows the excess deaths peaks both in the 1st and in the 2nd wave (2/n)

Context on why Centre finally heeds #SupremeCourt (after being questioned over its irrational policy) & the Opposition on centralised procurement of the vaccines: No. of people with 2 doses as a % of population is just 3.3% (See live tracker in thehindu.com) (1/n) The supply from the Centre to the States was around 24.6 crores and the utilisation was around 23.11 crores (including wastage) which is roughly 93.94% of supply. Essentially States used nearly all of the Centre's supply (2/n)

First, a lockdown is announced with a 4 hour notice period and without any preparations for the massive job losses for daily wagers/ casual labourers, which most migrant workers are in many Indian cities. (1/n) Then, when workers ran out of jobs, essentials, social nets, they couldn't avail transport services to go back to their native places which offered them atleast a semblance of a social net as transport was shut down. Some buses were started and then they were shut. (2/n)

Here's what I know about #Covid19 & #India- 1) We aren't testing people who haven't had a travel history from abroad or have possibly been in contact with those with such a history. Except, reportedly for some 826 random people with flu symptoms that #ICMR tested & found no +ves 2) The number of cumulative cases of #Covid19 in India are as of now 180, with 161 active cases. This is a relatively low number compared to countries in the northern hemisphere. This could be low because community transmission hasn't taken off or we haven't really tested enough