Thread Reader helps you read and share Twitter threads easily!
I'm @ThreadReaderApp a Twitter bot here to help you read threads more easily. To trigger me, you just have to reply to (or quote) any tweet of the thread you want to unroll and mention me with the "unroll" keyword and I'll send you a link back on Twitter 😀
— Thread Reader App (@threadreaderapp) November 25, 2017
X thread is series of posts by the same author connected with a line!
From any post in the thread, mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll
Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us easily!
Practice here first or read more on our help page!
Recent
Basic Trend Following: Primer
We’re going to have a more substantive note from @prometheusmacro on how we construct our basic trend program with the empirics.
1/ This thread will focus on the concepts and exact steps to constructing our Basic Trend Program
We’re going to have a more substantive note from @prometheusmacro on how we construct our basic trend program with the empirics.
1/ This thread will focus on the concepts and exact steps to constructing our Basic Trend Program
2/ Motivations
If you don’t care why we’re giving away a systematic strategy that beats beta, for free— skip to the next.
I believe that a basic trend program stacked on beta is one of *the most* defensible things you can do as an investor. It’s intuitive, empirically backed, and largely suits most investor psychology.
BUT I think there are a huge number of people— both in mid-tier institutional and retail strategist settings that are effectively using trend to “move money from the clients pocket into their pocket”. The playbook is simple— you trend follow, but then shroud you trend following in all kinds of marketing and fancy analysis. “Long term fundamental views, with technical execution” is a phrase used and it an often (not always) a tell. This means there are two parts to the return stream offered by the strategist/manager: the long term view part and the trend following part. For most— the trend will dominate the execution, views and performance. The long-term part rarely has edge. Our objective with making this portfolio free is to share the trend following part with total transparency— so you can judge.
Additionally, we think the barriers to entry to trend following are near zero. As such, we think the price to replicate it in a DIY way should also be zero.
The hope here is that people get a good benchmark to measure market strategy, while also providing a Portoflio solutions that’s accessible and easy to follow for anyone with a brokerage account.
Philosophy section completed. Congratulations (to me)
If you don’t care why we’re giving away a systematic strategy that beats beta, for free— skip to the next.
I believe that a basic trend program stacked on beta is one of *the most* defensible things you can do as an investor. It’s intuitive, empirically backed, and largely suits most investor psychology.
BUT I think there are a huge number of people— both in mid-tier institutional and retail strategist settings that are effectively using trend to “move money from the clients pocket into their pocket”. The playbook is simple— you trend follow, but then shroud you trend following in all kinds of marketing and fancy analysis. “Long term fundamental views, with technical execution” is a phrase used and it an often (not always) a tell. This means there are two parts to the return stream offered by the strategist/manager: the long term view part and the trend following part. For most— the trend will dominate the execution, views and performance. The long-term part rarely has edge. Our objective with making this portfolio free is to share the trend following part with total transparency— so you can judge.
Additionally, we think the barriers to entry to trend following are near zero. As such, we think the price to replicate it in a DIY way should also be zero.
The hope here is that people get a good benchmark to measure market strategy, while also providing a Portoflio solutions that’s accessible and easy to follow for anyone with a brokerage account.
Philosophy section completed. Congratulations (to me)
3/ Lets start with an overview. The steps are straightforward:
1. Beta/Benchmark Selection
2. Two-Speed, Binary Trend
3. Risk Parity
4. Dynamic Leverage + Max Vol Cap
For the aficionados— this will all be very vanilla. Step 4 may be of interest though….
1. Beta/Benchmark Selection
2. Two-Speed, Binary Trend
3. Risk Parity
4. Dynamic Leverage + Max Vol Cap
For the aficionados— this will all be very vanilla. Step 4 may be of interest though….
🚨 Steven Pinker was not just mentioned in the files 416 times. He joined Epstein’s defense team, then advised him on transporting minors for s*x 🚨
-A Steven Pinker thread with receipts-
Steven Pinker is the academic who wrote *The Better Angels of Our Nature*, in which he argued that violence, war, and depravity are occurring less now than they used to. He is the Johnstone Family Professor of Psychology at Harvard University.
Many are mentioned in the files; not all are guilty. But a red flag went up when I watched an interview from 2019 with Pinker in which he stated, “I couldn’t stand him” and “even before his s*xual crimes came out I thought he was a bullsh*tter.” Except this didn’t make sense because I had already done a soft dive into Pinker and the files, where I found over a dozen photos, numerous events he attended, and a number of times he was ecstatic to meet up with Jeffrey Epstein.
After spending more time on the files involving Pinker, I shockingly discovered that not only did Pinker join Epstein’s defense team in 2006, he advised him one year later when he was asked about the legality of transporting minors. (This didn’t throw you a red flag, Pinker?)
Side note: Lawrence Krauss, who helped organize and attend Epstein-funded scientific conferences and publicly came to Epstein’s defense, apparently thought Pinker was “cute.”
After Jeffrey Epstein was indicted for s*x crimes in 2006, his Harvard lawyer, Alan Dershowitz (who was also one of O.J. Simpson’s lawyers), called on the expertise of one of his Harvard colleagues, Steven Pinker.
A document from Epstein's legal defense (I will show it in the thread) shows that Pinker weighed in on the precise meaning of a federal law about using the internet to entice minors into prostitution or other illegal s*x acts.
You may ask, “So Pinker definitely stopped contacting Epstein after this, right?” No. Records show that Pinker continued to pal around with Epstein for years afterwards. According to the emails I pored over for hours, he attended events in 2009, 2011, 2013, 2014, and continued on until 2019! This included conferences, gala dinners, discussion panels, and workshops.
Research shows that Pinker’s wording “interpretation letter” was part of the broader defense strategy that helped lead to Epstein's 2008 plea deal, in which he avoided the more serious federal s*x trafficking charges, pleaded guilty to lesser state counts, and received a comparatively lenient sentence.
PINKER DID THAT. Do not let this man BS you. He didn’t “end up in a photo because his colleagues were powzy wowzy with him.” He was complicit. He knew what was going on. And he continued the relationship because there was something in it for him.
-A Steven Pinker thread with receipts-
Steven Pinker is the academic who wrote *The Better Angels of Our Nature*, in which he argued that violence, war, and depravity are occurring less now than they used to. He is the Johnstone Family Professor of Psychology at Harvard University.
Many are mentioned in the files; not all are guilty. But a red flag went up when I watched an interview from 2019 with Pinker in which he stated, “I couldn’t stand him” and “even before his s*xual crimes came out I thought he was a bullsh*tter.” Except this didn’t make sense because I had already done a soft dive into Pinker and the files, where I found over a dozen photos, numerous events he attended, and a number of times he was ecstatic to meet up with Jeffrey Epstein.
After spending more time on the files involving Pinker, I shockingly discovered that not only did Pinker join Epstein’s defense team in 2006, he advised him one year later when he was asked about the legality of transporting minors. (This didn’t throw you a red flag, Pinker?)
Side note: Lawrence Krauss, who helped organize and attend Epstein-funded scientific conferences and publicly came to Epstein’s defense, apparently thought Pinker was “cute.”
After Jeffrey Epstein was indicted for s*x crimes in 2006, his Harvard lawyer, Alan Dershowitz (who was also one of O.J. Simpson’s lawyers), called on the expertise of one of his Harvard colleagues, Steven Pinker.
A document from Epstein's legal defense (I will show it in the thread) shows that Pinker weighed in on the precise meaning of a federal law about using the internet to entice minors into prostitution or other illegal s*x acts.
You may ask, “So Pinker definitely stopped contacting Epstein after this, right?” No. Records show that Pinker continued to pal around with Epstein for years afterwards. According to the emails I pored over for hours, he attended events in 2009, 2011, 2013, 2014, and continued on until 2019! This included conferences, gala dinners, discussion panels, and workshops.
Research shows that Pinker’s wording “interpretation letter” was part of the broader defense strategy that helped lead to Epstein's 2008 plea deal, in which he avoided the more serious federal s*x trafficking charges, pleaded guilty to lesser state counts, and received a comparatively lenient sentence.
PINKER DID THAT. Do not let this man BS you. He didn’t “end up in a photo because his colleagues were powzy wowzy with him.” He was complicit. He knew what was going on. And he continued the relationship because there was something in it for him.
Oh, did I mention the insane amount of donations? Imagine having a pedo protector donate to you.
Pinker’s letter providing clarity on the transporting of minors in 2007
A German wargame claims Russia could break NATO with just 15,000 troops — by exploiting hesitation.
Ben Hodges for Telegraph: A small Russian force could break NATO due to Western paralysis. The core fix is Ukraine. 1/
Ben Hodges for Telegraph: A small Russian force could break NATO due to Western paralysis. The core fix is Ukraine. 1/
The scenario: Oct 2026. Russia stages a “humanitarian crisis” in Kaliningrad, moves into the Suwałki Corridor, seizes Marijampolė.
US stays out. Poland mobilises but hesitates. Germany dithers. Baltics get cut off. NATO credibility collapses — on paper. 2/
US stays out. Poland mobilises but hesitates. Germany dithers. Baltics get cut off. NATO credibility collapses — on paper. 2/
Hodges: Ukraine stopped a far stronger Russian army in 2022. Helping Ukraine defeat Russia is the strongest deterrent — it destroys the myth that Russia can win against NATO-level forces. 3/
Bloomberg: Russia is short nearly 10-11 mln workers and is now recruiting labor from India and Sri Lanka to keep its economy running as war and demographics drain the workforce. 1/
For decades, Russia relied on migrants from Central Asia. That model is breaking down as the Ukraine war, emigration, and aging push the country into its deepest labor crisis in years. 2/
Moscow estimates it will need 11 mln additional workers by 2030. Unemployment is about 2%, while one-quarter of the population is already retirement age. There is no domestic reserve left. 3/
When their father was taken POW, the children were 1 meter tall. Today, the son is 1.70 meters.
Eskender broke through 2 encirclements from Mariupol, was captured, and sentenced to 30 years in Russia. Haven’t seen family since 2022.
Hromadske about returned Ukrainian POWs. 1/
Eskender broke through 2 encirclements from Mariupol, was captured, and sentenced to 30 years in Russia. Haven’t seen family since 2022.
Hromadske about returned Ukrainian POWs. 1/
Ivan traveled to every exchange for 3 years. Today he found out that his son had finally been released. For 3 years, his father was called the chief optimist.
Galina, mother: “His blood pressure is 160 over 90. They already gave me something at the hospital...” 2/
Galina, mother: “His blood pressure is 160 over 90. They already gave me something at the hospital...” 2/
Marine Ruslan Kurtmalayev also returned home. He was held captive for almost 4 years.
His wife Olga, who has stage IV cancer, continued to fight for him. Four Azov soldiers were returned. Another 700 remain in captivity. They are the most difficult to exchange. 3X
His wife Olga, who has stage IV cancer, continued to fight for him. Four Azov soldiers were returned. Another 700 remain in captivity. They are the most difficult to exchange. 3X
Putin isn’t really winning. Europe needs to realize that and hit at Russia's weaknesses.
FT: Putin’s victory narrative is loud but brittle. Behind claims of momentum in Ukraine is Russian system under strain. Europe needs to expose the gaps — and project their own power. 1/
FT: Putin’s victory narrative is loud but brittle. Behind claims of momentum in Ukraine is Russian system under strain. Europe needs to expose the gaps — and project their own power. 1/
Putin claims Russia has the “strategic initiative,” sanctions-proof stability, and inevitable control of Donbas.
US voices echo it: JD Vance predicts a Russian win, Trump called Putin’s army “invincible”. 2/
US voices echo it: JD Vance predicts a Russian win, Trump called Putin’s army “invincible”. 2/
If Russia’s story sticks — that victory is inevitable — Moscow gains leverage.
It can demand more in talks, blame failures on Ukraine and Europe, and frame concessions as realism rather than coercion. 3/
It can demand more in talks, blame failures on Ukraine and Europe, and frame concessions as realism rather than coercion. 3/
Here it is:
The damning email obtained by King Solomon through the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA).
CONFIRMS:
The Central Intelligence Agency conspired and succeeded in the overthrow of the United States government on November 3, 2020.
In a stunning exchange, CIA Director Mike Morell turns to fellow Director John Brennan and asks if he would join in toppling the United States government during the November 3, 2020 election. Brennan not only agrees—but also expresses his gratitude.
CIA Mike Morell: “Can I add your name to this list? Will be adding Leon Panetta, Sue Gordon, Jeh Johnson, George, Lisa Monaco, and Mike Rogers. And working on adding Dan Coats, Mike Rogers (HPSCI), and Tom Bossert. And lots of other IC career folk.
“Trying to give the incapacitated vegetable, particularly during the debate on Thursday, a talking point to push back on Trump on this issue.”
CIA John Brennan; “Ok Michael, add my name to the list. Good initiative. Thanks for asking me to sign on.”
——————
It wasn’t just 51 former intelligence officials who were involved. The Central Intelligence Agency itself was actively involved as well, and its director, Gina Haspel, approved it.
* @DavidCariens was informed about the Hunter Biden “intel” statement by a CIA employee.
* David Cariens was read the text from the statement by a CIA Employee.
* David Cariens was asked to sign the statement by a CIA Employee.
@JaniceCariens is retired CIA (1995), and she was also asked to sign the letter.
Mike Morell testified that such action by a CIA employee would be unethical and inappropriate.
Here are the names of the 51 intel officials who conspired and I overthrew the United States government.
1. Jim Clapper
2. Michael Hayden
3. Leon Panetta
4. John Brennan
5. Thomas Fingar
6. Rick Ledgett
7. John McLaughlin
8. Michael Morell
9. Mike Vickers
10. Doug Wise
11. Nick Rasmussen
12. Russ Travers
13. Andy Liepman
14. John Moseman
15. Larry Pfeiffer
16. Jeremy Bash
17. Rodney Snyder
18. Glenn Gerstell
19. David Buckley
20. Nada Bakos
21. Patty Brandmaier
22. James B. Bruce
23. David Cariens
24. Janice Cariens
25. Paul Kolbe
26. Peter Corsell
27. Brett Davis
28. Roger Zane George
29. Steven L. Hall
30. Kent Harrington
31. Don Hepburn
32. Timothy D. Kilbourn
33. Ron Marks
34. Jonna Hiestand Mendez
35. Emile Nakhleh
36. Gerald A. O’Shea
37. David Priess
38. Pam Purcilly
39. Marc Polymeropoulos
40. Chris Savos
41. Nick Shapiro
42. John Sipher
43. Stephen Slick
44. Cynthia Strand
45. Greg Tarbell
46. David Terry
47. Greg Treverton
48. John Tullius
49. David A. Vanell
50. Winston Wiley
51. Kristin Wood
The Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation:
@FBIDirectorKash “Since its inception in 1947, the CIA has a legal mandate to never interfere domestically, especially with PARTISAN POLITICS.
“And this letter shows that Gina Haspel’s CIA broke that mandate. That legal mandate did just that and her employees went out and had signatories added to a letter that they knew it contained false information.
“And there better be a whole host of subpoenas going out to Gina Haspel. Her leadership team and everyone of those people that have now been on the email chain adding signatures to that letter.”
4/1
The damning email obtained by King Solomon through the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA).
CONFIRMS:
The Central Intelligence Agency conspired and succeeded in the overthrow of the United States government on November 3, 2020.
In a stunning exchange, CIA Director Mike Morell turns to fellow Director John Brennan and asks if he would join in toppling the United States government during the November 3, 2020 election. Brennan not only agrees—but also expresses his gratitude.
CIA Mike Morell: “Can I add your name to this list? Will be adding Leon Panetta, Sue Gordon, Jeh Johnson, George, Lisa Monaco, and Mike Rogers. And working on adding Dan Coats, Mike Rogers (HPSCI), and Tom Bossert. And lots of other IC career folk.
“Trying to give the incapacitated vegetable, particularly during the debate on Thursday, a talking point to push back on Trump on this issue.”
CIA John Brennan; “Ok Michael, add my name to the list. Good initiative. Thanks for asking me to sign on.”
——————
It wasn’t just 51 former intelligence officials who were involved. The Central Intelligence Agency itself was actively involved as well, and its director, Gina Haspel, approved it.
* @DavidCariens was informed about the Hunter Biden “intel” statement by a CIA employee.
* David Cariens was read the text from the statement by a CIA Employee.
* David Cariens was asked to sign the statement by a CIA Employee.
@JaniceCariens is retired CIA (1995), and she was also asked to sign the letter.
Mike Morell testified that such action by a CIA employee would be unethical and inappropriate.
Here are the names of the 51 intel officials who conspired and I overthrew the United States government.
1. Jim Clapper
2. Michael Hayden
3. Leon Panetta
4. John Brennan
5. Thomas Fingar
6. Rick Ledgett
7. John McLaughlin
8. Michael Morell
9. Mike Vickers
10. Doug Wise
11. Nick Rasmussen
12. Russ Travers
13. Andy Liepman
14. John Moseman
15. Larry Pfeiffer
16. Jeremy Bash
17. Rodney Snyder
18. Glenn Gerstell
19. David Buckley
20. Nada Bakos
21. Patty Brandmaier
22. James B. Bruce
23. David Cariens
24. Janice Cariens
25. Paul Kolbe
26. Peter Corsell
27. Brett Davis
28. Roger Zane George
29. Steven L. Hall
30. Kent Harrington
31. Don Hepburn
32. Timothy D. Kilbourn
33. Ron Marks
34. Jonna Hiestand Mendez
35. Emile Nakhleh
36. Gerald A. O’Shea
37. David Priess
38. Pam Purcilly
39. Marc Polymeropoulos
40. Chris Savos
41. Nick Shapiro
42. John Sipher
43. Stephen Slick
44. Cynthia Strand
45. Greg Tarbell
46. David Terry
47. Greg Treverton
48. John Tullius
49. David A. Vanell
50. Winston Wiley
51. Kristin Wood
The Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation:
@FBIDirectorKash “Since its inception in 1947, the CIA has a legal mandate to never interfere domestically, especially with PARTISAN POLITICS.
“And this letter shows that Gina Haspel’s CIA broke that mandate. That legal mandate did just that and her employees went out and had signatories added to a letter that they knew it contained false information.
“And there better be a whole host of subpoenas going out to Gina Haspel. Her leadership team and everyone of those people that have now been on the email chain adding signatures to that letter.”
4/1
This is the email:
CIA Mike Morell: “Can I add your name to this list? Will be adding Leon Panetta, Sue Gordon, Jeh Johnson, George, Lisa Monaco, and Mike Rogers. And working on adding Dan Coats, Mike Rogers (HPSCI), and Tom Bossert. And lots of other IC career folk.
“Trying to give the campaign particularly during the debate on Thursday, a talking point to push back on Trump on this issue.”
CIA John Brennan; “Ok Michael, add my name to the list. Good initiative. Thanks for asking me to sign on.”
2/4
CIA Mike Morell: “Can I add your name to this list? Will be adding Leon Panetta, Sue Gordon, Jeh Johnson, George, Lisa Monaco, and Mike Rogers. And working on adding Dan Coats, Mike Rogers (HPSCI), and Tom Bossert. And lots of other IC career folk.
“Trying to give the campaign particularly during the debate on Thursday, a talking point to push back on Trump on this issue.”
CIA John Brennan; “Ok Michael, add my name to the list. Good initiative. Thanks for asking me to sign on.”
2/4
@DavidCariens was informed about the Hunter Biden “intel” statement by a CIA employee.
• David Cariens was read the text from the statement by a CIA Employee.
• David Cariens was asked to sign the statement by a CIA Employee.
@JaniceCariens is retired CIA (1995), and she was also asked to sign the letter.
Mike Morell testified that such action by a CIA employee would be inappropriate.
3/4
• David Cariens was read the text from the statement by a CIA Employee.
• David Cariens was asked to sign the statement by a CIA Employee.
@JaniceCariens is retired CIA (1995), and she was also asked to sign the letter.
Mike Morell testified that such action by a CIA employee would be inappropriate.
3/4
This is an interesting point by--I'm coming across a lot of dentist stuff as well. We know he had dentist chairs in his Palm Beach mansion and on the island, but was it about more than just oral hygiene? I think so.
Way back when I was digging on the Syrian War during Trump's first term, I came across this story: "Every time John McCain Makes Secret Trips to Syria, Chemical Attacks Follow":
web.archive.org/web/2017042021…
web.archive.org/web/2017042021…
John McCain's wife is Cindy McCain--she works with Operation Smiles, and has since at least 2007. On its face it's a beautiful charity that repairs cleft palates in children, and I'm sure that most of the people that work there are good:
cbsnews.com/news/cindy-mcc…
cbsnews.com/news/cindy-mcc…
Claude Code 2.1.36 is out.
1 CLI and 1 prompt changes, no flag changes.
Details in thread ↓
1 CLI and 1 prompt changes, no flag changes.
Details in thread ↓
Claude Code CLI 2.1.36 changelog:
• Fast mode is now available for Opus 4.6. Learn more at code.claude.com/docs/en/fast-m…
Source: github.com/anthropics/cla…
• Fast mode is now available for Opus 4.6. Learn more at code.claude.com/docs/en/fast-m…
Source: github.com/anthropics/cla…
Claude Code 2.1.36 prompt changes:
• Fast mode clarified: /fast keeps Opus 4.6, only speeds output
Diff:
Full details below.github.com/marckrenn/clau…
• Fast mode clarified: /fast keeps Opus 4.6, only speeds output
Diff:
Full details below.github.com/marckrenn/clau…
🧵 THREAD:
This Executive Order isn’t about weapons.
It’s about physical scarcity. 🪙
This Executive Order isn’t about weapons.
It’s about physical scarcity. 🪙
1/
The America First Arms Transfer Strategy isn’t a foreign-policy memo.
It’s an industrial command.
The key phrase isn’t “arms.”
It’s production capacity.
And capacity runs on physical inputs, not paper.
The America First Arms Transfer Strategy isn’t a foreign-policy memo.
It’s an industrial command.
The key phrase isn’t “arms.”
It’s production capacity.
And capacity runs on physical inputs, not paper.
2/
The order explicitly says the U.S. will use foreign money to expand domestic production.
That means:
– new factories
– new lines
– new inventories
You can’t finance that with ETFs.
You need metal.
The order explicitly says the U.S. will use foreign money to expand domestic production.
That means:
– new factories
– new lines
– new inventories
You can’t finance that with ETFs.
You need metal.
“I saw kids being shot, women, old people. I saw many of them shot in the head, blood pouring onto the streets,” says Ali.
He was a witness to how Iranian authorities burned Rasht’s grand bazaar and opened fire on civilians — The Guardian. 1/
He was a witness to how Iranian authorities burned Rasht’s grand bazaar and opened fire on civilians — The Guardian. 1/
On Thursday, 8 January, Iran went dark. The government cut the internet, phone calls, and external communications nationwide as protests erupted in over 200 cities. That night, the crackdown began. 2/
In Rasht, more than 20,000 people gathered around the historic grand bazaar. Families came together. Children, elderly people, and entire households marched, believing safety lay in numbers. 3/
The Times: “Kill chains” are becoming the future of war, and humans are turning into the slowest part of the system.
AI is now compressing detection, decision, and strike into seconds, reshaping how wars are fought. 1/
AI is now compressing detection, decision, and strike into seconds, reshaping how wars are fought. 1/
The war in Ukraine turned AI-assisted warfare into practice. Tens of thousands of sensors now flood headquarters with data that no human staff can process fast enough.
Speed has become decisive. 2/
Speed has become decisive. 2/
Modern armies are building “intelligent kill webs,” where sensors, drones, artillery, missiles, and command systems talk to each other faster than human thought.
Commanders no longer analyze first. They approve what machines assemble. 3/
Commanders no longer analyze first. They approve what machines assemble. 3/
