Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #actually

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If you'll permit me a pedantic "well, actually" thread... #Actually, absentee voting and mail voting ARE different.
1. The way Trump seems to be distinguishing them, "mail voting" = a state mails everyone a ballot automatically. "Absentee voting" = voters have to proactively request a ballot. You may prefer the former or the latter setup, but there IS a difference.
2. Absentee voting can be done in person; many states simply have "in-person absentee voting" in lieu of early voting. When you see stats like "X% of votes were absentees" that doesn't mean X% were mailed in.
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Participating in #HITAC call and will summarize here.

CDC rolling out eCR more rapidly & working on an eCR Now FHIR app for electronic case reporting. Epic streamlining implementation to 3 days.

May 1st for delivery of FHIR app...

@JoshCMandel are you involved?

There's a process for submitting eCR triggers emergently & it seems to work, across a relatively small network.

Not clear if eCR Now is CDC Hooks based, will get the community rev'd up on this one. cc: @aneeshchopra @JoshCMandel @Farzad_MD @GrahameGrieve

Speakers in the public health community explicitly noting that the Promoting Interoperability (née MU) program established the baseline for syndromic surveillance & dropped many of the feeds in place.
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Currently, Trump & conservatives are demonizing cities, trying to blame them for the virus, & trying to prevent people from leaving -- not based on science, but on their longstanding hatred of cities & city dwellers. This kind of ugly hatred toward cities is just accepted. BUT...
... when the virus reaches rural areas, as it certainly will, the right will flip to complaining about how poor rural areas are looked down on & neglected. Democrats will be widely accused of "elitism," no matter what they say or do.
This is standard in US politics: conservatives are allowed to hate & demonize the cities where most of the people live & GDP is generated. But the dominant mythology is one of rural victimization. It's all projection and lo I am sick to death of it.
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This is why I think conservatives messaging against socialism is going to be hard, and maybe even a disaster. Here's Rubio laying out the case against socialism by discussing "free health care" and "free education." Those are winning, popular issues! /1
More to Rubio "the core of Marxism" is the promise "we're going to provide you security with free" programs. Promise of freedom through economic security was #actually the core of the New Deal, which remains very popular.

Tougher terrain for them to fight on than you'd think. /2
I keep coming back to this @michelleinbklyn piece about how the Dems plan of saying "Trump, he's way outside the bounds of normal conservatives" completely backfired on them. The GOP: "Sanders is so far outside your normal Democratic politician." Yeah! /3…
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Bernie Sanders supported Iran’s taking of American hostages during the Carter administration. He was 40 years old.
Love the Sanders supporters defending Sanders’s support for the murderous Ayatollah Khomeini over innocent USA State Department workers and hostages. Yes, please make that argument, I’ll donate to a SuperPAC running ads promoting that defense.
Sanders supporters love dictatorial regimes that murder homosexuals and Jews more than they love America.
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My hot take of the day is that 2018-19 were #actually banner years for trade economists. Nobody bats 1.000, but on tariffs, trade balances, diversion vs reshoring, uncertainty, manufacturing, currency, etc, the economists* were generally right. /1

*real ones, not pundits
Whether this matters for US politics is entirely a different matter, but the folks who *actually study this stuff for a living* have a LOT to look back on over the last 2 yrs and say (politely) "just as predicted" (aka "told ya so")
✅Tariff incidence & downstream effects
✅Retaliation & exclusions
✅Tariffs & currency (USD/RMB/etc)
✅Trade uncertainty's US/global effects
✅Bilateral disputes' regional impact
✅Supply chains, reshoring, trade diversion
✅Trade balances & tariffs/taxes/mfg output
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@ebruenig #actually, "liberal" was used by John Stuart Mill to mean something very close to what modern Americans mean by "liberal", as opposed to "libertarian". John Stuart Mill did not believe that libertarian "negative liberty" was it, and that "freedom" was overwhelmingly freedom 1/
@ebruenig from Big Gummit requiring that you, say, entertain offers to buy your house from Black people. The passage from Mill I like comes from his _Principles of Political Economy_, talking about the poverty of the world circa 1870: "Hitherto, it is questionable if all the mechanical 2/
@ebruenig inventions yet made have lightened the day’s toil of any human being. They have enabled a greater population to live the same life of drudgery and imprisonment, and an increased number of manufacturers and others to make fortunes. They have increased the comforts of the 3/
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OK, here's a classic 538 "well, actually" story.

#Actually, Biden's numbers haven't declined at all since the Ukraine story broke, and while Warren has made big recent gains, few of them have come from Biden:…
In certain respects the media would seem to be making the same mistake it made with Trump in the GOP primaries in 2016, consistantly predicting his demise despite steady poll numbers, perhaps because his support comes mostly from voters that the media largely ignores.
However, Biden faces a problem that Trump never did: an opponent as strong as Warren, who has already broken through in a way that none of Trump's GOP rivals in 2016 ever really did.
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So frustrating to #know the answer to the question of how to formulate that #TheoryOfEverything #scientists say is the biggest unsolved problem in #physics, yet they don't even want to look at it:…

Wave-particle duality a #mystery?
What I've found is rather astonishing:

The #mathematics used by #Maxwell are inconsistent.

He left the magnetic vector potential field [A] undefined and decoupled from the #medium thus creating #MaxwellsHole, which introduced an unwarrented #gauge #freedom in the model...
It is this #gauge #freedom thst led to the #hack known as #Quantum #Madness.

Really, it doesn't take a PhD to figure out that when you believe particles can exist at two places at the same time, you have a mental problem.…
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They did it. Quillette published the @neiltyson mass shootings tweet defense.

Turns out it's #actually about "better...marshaling the available data," allocating "our resources most effectively," and responding based on "facts, rather than feelings."…
Neither. Even in Rationalia, there could never be such a button to push. The idea that political life could be structured in such a way is the fantasy of a freshman comp sci student, and the question serves no end other than shaming us for having felt moral lives.
The unrivaled king of this is Peter Singer, who's made a career telling people they're emotional Neanderthals for feeling sad at pictures of starving kids, and as a result has been dubbed a heroic expander of the circle of moral concern.
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#Actually, Hispanics* are a pretty huge part of the story about how Texas has become more purple and it's weird that I'm seeing punditry to the contrary!

* Asian and "other" or mixed-race voters also an important part of the story, but we'll leave that aside for now.
Here's a comparison between 2004 (Bush/Kerry) and 2018 (Cruz/Beto). Democrats gained ground among both whites *and* Hispanics, but the gains among Hispanics are larger.

Whites: R+ 49 (2004); R+32 (2018)
Hispanics: D+1 (2004) D +29 (2018)
Meanwhile, Hispanics have grown from 20% of the electorate in 2004 to 26% in 2018. They're still underperforming in comparison to their share of the voting-eligible population, but that's helped Democrats too.
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Not clear how successful. Trump had a 38% favorability rating on Election Day 2016, per the exit poll, much worse than Mitt Romney's 48% in 2012. But Hillary was at 43% as compared to Obama's 53%. His success came mostly from running vs. a candidate almost as unpopular as he was.
Sure, the story is more complicated than that. Clinton's low favorability rating is not exogenous from Trump's strategy. Also, the Electoral College obviously mattered a lot and gives greater influence to white working-class voters and strategies that cater to them.
But "#Actually, Trump's strategy of stoking racial resentment is #smart politics!" isn't a great take. The evidence for it is murky, and became murkier after the GOP/Trump's bad midterm in 2018.

Reporters and pundits shouldn't go around spouting it like it's a savvy take.
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#Actually, moderate Democrats seem to be more popular with general election voters after all.
Bernie's polling is decent, but that he does the 2nd-best against Trump (after Biden) is partly an artifact of name recognition. For instance, Buttigieg polls worse than Bernie vs. Trump. But Buttigieg actually has better favorables than Bernie among voters who know who he is.
It's certainly a messy relationship. Some liberals, including Bernie, have decent (though not great) polling. Some moderates don't. But favorability ratings, which allow voters to say they don't recognize a candidate, are a better way to assess this stuff than head-to-head polls.
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Here's the podcast version of my "I mean, look at the polls, impeaching Trump is probably a bad idea, politically" hot take, which pretty much all of you hate.
I do talk in the podcast about just because impeaching Trump is probably a bad idea (politically) doesn't necessarily make it a good idea for Trump to goad Democrats into impeachment.
p.s. Probably the worst counter-take is the strawman that's like "SO YOU SHOULD JUST ALWAYS DO WHAT POLLS SAY?!?!?"

#Actually, my argument is as much about the lack of policy upside (what does impeaching but not removing Trump really get Dems?) as much as the political downside.
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I’m watching S01E01 of Game of Thrones and there’d better be fisting.
This is some Dungeons and Dragons ass shit.
Jamie Lannister can get it.
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#Actually, early presidential primary polls are fairly predictive.
You have to adjust for name recognition, though. Biden, at just south of 30 percent, is still something like a 2:1 underdog. And Bernie's position at 20 percent, as I wrote yesterday, is tenable but not great.
Per the chart above, Buttigieg's position is roughly as good as Bernie's on a "polls only" basis, or maybe a bit better. Empirically, you'd slightly prefer to be polling at ~10% with low name recognition than ~20% with high name recognition.
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Been dancing around this take because I *do* think Sanders can win (one of the more likely nominees IMO). But was time to write it because I think people are wimps and overcompensating for 2016:

#Actually, Bernie's polling isn't that good. 🔥🔥🔥
Sanders is polling at ~20% nationally with ~100% name recognition. Slightly higher in NH but slightly worse in Iowa. Historically, candidates in a similar position don't have a great track record. (3 for 15 in winning nominations, or 20%).
Sanders's favorability/unfavorability ratings have varied a lot from poll to poll. But on average, they're in the upper-middle part of the pack, not at the top. Biden's negatives are lower and candidates like Buttigieg and Harris have better ratings adjusted for name recognition.
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Charlatans like Abramson on some level know that they’ve been peddling a fraud, so instead of defending their debunked arguments on the merits, they resort to bogus appeals to credentialism: a fallacy Seth should’ve learned about in law school
The only reason Abramson garnered a platform was because he pioneered a groundbreaking form of “experimental journalism” which entailed hawking bias-affirming theories to Bernie Sanders supporters about how he was #actually leading Hillary Clinton in the delegate count
Abramson in May 2016: "I’ve been a metamodernist creative writer for many years now, but had not seen an opportunity to bring this earnest, optimistic, and loving art practice into my professional writing activities until Bernie Sanders came along."

Sure thing, Seth
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#Actually, the chart actually shows clear evidence of the beer-wine frontier, with certain types of sprits (e.g. scotch, brandy/cognac) straddling the frontier. 🍺🍷
A few highbrow beers (although there's nothing *truly* highbrow on here) creep over into wineland, but that's sort of what you'd expect.
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Why does the Cosmos assign meaning by size, and why, finding us so insignificant, is it so preoccupied with dispatching messengers to let us know?
In that night alive with signs and stars, I opened myself to the gentle indifference of the universe. Finding it so much like myself — so like a brother, really — I resolved to start posting tweets about how SuperMoons are #actually normal moons and BB-8 couldn't really roll.
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Out today! My new, chart-rich paper on trade, globalization & US public opinion:…
So now a thread on why I wrote this paper - the data for which were surprisingly difficult to gather (thanks, @pewresearch, @Gallup, @ChicagoCouncil, etc for the help!) - and what it reveals /2
The malleability of US public opinion on trade is something I first noticed years ago (and briefly discussed in this paper from 2011:…). Trade polls have long fluctuated depending on politics, rhetoric & the economy. /3
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