Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #actually

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OK, here's a classic 538 "well, actually" story.

#Actually, Biden's numbers haven't declined at all since the Ukraine story broke, and while Warren has made big recent gains, few of them have come from Biden: fivethirtyeight.com/features/eliza…
In certain respects the media would seem to be making the same mistake it made with Trump in the GOP primaries in 2016, consistantly predicting his demise despite steady poll numbers, perhaps because his support comes mostly from voters that the media largely ignores.
However, Biden faces a problem that Trump never did: an opponent as strong as Warren, who has already broken through in a way that none of Trump's GOP rivals in 2016 ever really did.
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(Thread)

So frustrating to #know the answer to the question of how to formulate that #TheoryOfEverything #scientists say is the biggest unsolved problem in #physics, yet they don't even want to look at it:

tuks.nl/wiki/index.php…

Wave-particle duality a #mystery?
What I've found is rather astonishing:

The #mathematics used by #Maxwell are inconsistent.

He left the magnetic vector potential field [A] undefined and decoupled from the #medium thus creating #MaxwellsHole, which introduced an unwarrented #gauge #freedom in the model...
It is this #gauge #freedom thst led to the #hack known as #Quantum #Madness.

Really, it doesn't take a PhD to figure out that when you believe particles can exist at two places at the same time, you have a mental problem.

steemit.com/funny/@lamare/…
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They did it. Quillette published the @neiltyson mass shootings tweet defense.

Turns out it's #actually about "better...marshaling the available data," allocating "our resources most effectively," and responding based on "facts, rather than feelings." quillette.com/2019/08/29/pre…
Neither. Even in Rationalia, there could never be such a button to push. The idea that political life could be structured in such a way is the fantasy of a freshman comp sci student, and the question serves no end other than shaming us for having felt moral lives.
The unrivaled king of this is Peter Singer, who's made a career telling people they're emotional Neanderthals for feeling sad at pictures of starving kids, and as a result has been dubbed a heroic expander of the circle of moral concern.
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Meanwhile, checking in on Glenn and woo boy.....there's a lot going on here.
1. His obsessive ability to shoehorn that ACTUALLY NSA/Deep State is the real source of neo-fascism (& ignore/defend Trump admin & actual white supremacists) is almost impressive.
2. "the easiest & least powerful targets" this is describing literal nazis marching in the streets.
(Just as he did in Charlottesville, where his immediate reaction was to come to the defense of the Nazis who killed someone- #Actually they were the real victims.....of people who want to take away their free speech).
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#Actually, Hispanics* are a pretty huge part of the story about how Texas has become more purple and it's weird that I'm seeing punditry to the contrary!

* Asian and "other" or mixed-race voters also an important part of the story, but we'll leave that aside for now.
Here's a comparison between 2004 (Bush/Kerry) and 2018 (Cruz/Beto). Democrats gained ground among both whites *and* Hispanics, but the gains among Hispanics are larger.

Whites: R+ 49 (2004); R+32 (2018)
Hispanics: D+1 (2004) D +29 (2018)
Meanwhile, Hispanics have grown from 20% of the electorate in 2004 to 26% in 2018. They're still underperforming in comparison to their share of the voting-eligible population, but that's helped Democrats too.
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Not clear how successful. Trump had a 38% favorability rating on Election Day 2016, per the exit poll, much worse than Mitt Romney's 48% in 2012. But Hillary was at 43% as compared to Obama's 53%. His success came mostly from running vs. a candidate almost as unpopular as he was.
Sure, the story is more complicated than that. Clinton's low favorability rating is not exogenous from Trump's strategy. Also, the Electoral College obviously mattered a lot and gives greater influence to white working-class voters and strategies that cater to them.
But "#Actually, Trump's strategy of stoking racial resentment is #smart politics!" isn't a great take. The evidence for it is murky, and became murkier after the GOP/Trump's bad midterm in 2018.

Reporters and pundits shouldn't go around spouting it like it's a savvy take.
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LCMS convention discussion of the SMP program is frustrating because #actually we really should let people get a certificate of ordination and bow out of an MDiv. SMP program may be sloppy but idea that pastors need be academics is false.

there's your smack talk @Alyse_On_Life
"we shouldn't lower our standards for ministry"

totally agreed 150% but like is there any actual proof that having an MDiv genuinely truly makes you a better pastor
FULL DISCLOSURE:

I was recently in the process of discerning if the ministry might be a good fit for me.

Decided no when I realized it would take longer, with more class hours, and at much greater cost, than getting my PhD in economics.

So I'm like jaded and all.
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#Actually, moderate Democrats seem to be more popular with general election voters after all. 53eig.ht/30HJdqf
Bernie's polling is decent, but that he does the 2nd-best against Trump (after Biden) is partly an artifact of name recognition. For instance, Buttigieg polls worse than Bernie vs. Trump. But Buttigieg actually has better favorables than Bernie among voters who know who he is.
It's certainly a messy relationship. Some liberals, including Bernie, have decent (though not great) polling. Some moderates don't. But favorability ratings, which allow voters to say they don't recognize a candidate, are a better way to assess this stuff than head-to-head polls.
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Here's the podcast version of my "I mean, look at the polls, impeaching Trump is probably a bad idea, politically" hot take, which pretty much all of you hate.
I do talk in the podcast about just because impeaching Trump is probably a bad idea (politically) doesn't necessarily make it a good idea for Trump to goad Democrats into impeachment.
p.s. Probably the worst counter-take is the strawman that's like "SO YOU SHOULD JUST ALWAYS DO WHAT POLLS SAY?!?!?"

#Actually, my argument is as much about the lack of policy upside (what does impeaching but not removing Trump really get Dems?) as much as the political downside.
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I’m watching S01E01 of Game of Thrones and there’d better be fisting.
This is some Dungeons and Dragons ass shit.
Jamie Lannister can get it.
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#Actually, early presidential primary polls are fairly predictive. 53eig.ht/2PtbSd7
You have to adjust for name recognition, though. Biden, at just south of 30 percent, is still something like a 2:1 underdog. And Bernie's position at 20 percent, as I wrote yesterday, is tenable but not great.
Per the chart above, Buttigieg's position is roughly as good as Bernie's on a "polls only" basis, or maybe a bit better. Empirically, you'd slightly prefer to be polling at ~10% with low name recognition than ~20% with high name recognition.
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Been dancing around this take because I *do* think Sanders can win (one of the more likely nominees IMO). But was time to write it because I think people are wimps and overcompensating for 2016:

#Actually, Bernie's polling isn't that good. 🔥🔥🔥

53eig.ht/2VhpcXB
Sanders is polling at ~20% nationally with ~100% name recognition. Slightly higher in NH but slightly worse in Iowa. Historically, candidates in a similar position don't have a great track record. (3 for 15 in winning nominations, or 20%).
Sanders's favorability/unfavorability ratings have varied a lot from poll to poll. But on average, they're in the upper-middle part of the pack, not at the top. Biden's negatives are lower and candidates like Buttigieg and Harris have better ratings adjusted for name recognition.
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Charlatans like Abramson on some level know that they’ve been peddling a fraud, so instead of defending their debunked arguments on the merits, they resort to bogus appeals to credentialism: a fallacy Seth should’ve learned about in law school
The only reason Abramson garnered a platform was because he pioneered a groundbreaking form of “experimental journalism” which entailed hawking bias-affirming theories to Bernie Sanders supporters about how he was #actually leading Hillary Clinton in the delegate count
Abramson in May 2016: "I’ve been a metamodernist creative writer for many years now, but had not seen an opportunity to bring this earnest, optimistic, and loving art practice into my professional writing activities until Bernie Sanders came along."

Sure thing, Seth
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#Actually, the chart actually shows clear evidence of the beer-wine frontier, with certain types of sprits (e.g. scotch, brandy/cognac) straddling the frontier. 🍺🍷
A few highbrow beers (although there's nothing *truly* highbrow on here) creep over into wineland, but that's sort of what you'd expect.
👏 WINE 👏 TRACK 👏 BEER 👏 TRACK 👏 HAS 👏 BEEN 👏 SCIENTIFICALLY 👏 VALIDATED 👏
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So there have been a lot of takes on the UMC #gc2019 votes on LGBT issues.

But the take with the most relevance to non-Methodists is one I haven't seen anybody make. So here goes.
Also, cc @salimfurth for sending the email that prompted this thread
Different churches organize themselves different ways. For example, my own church body, @thelcms , gives a lot of power to laypeople at the congregational level, but then also has a strong center: it's got a very weak mid-level bureaucracy compared to e.g. Catholics, Methodists.
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Why does the Cosmos assign meaning by size, and why, finding us so insignificant, is it so preoccupied with dispatching messengers to let us know?
In that night alive with signs and stars, I opened myself to the gentle indifference of the universe. Finding it so much like myself — so like a brother, really — I resolved to start posting tweets about how SuperMoons are #actually normal moons and BB-8 couldn't really roll.
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Out today! My new, chart-rich paper on trade, globalization & US public opinion:
cato.org/publications/f…
So now a thread on why I wrote this paper - the data for which were surprisingly difficult to gather (thanks, @pewresearch, @Gallup, @ChicagoCouncil, etc for the help!) - and what it reveals /2
The malleability of US public opinion on trade is something I first noticed years ago (and briefly discussed in this paper from 2011: cato.org/publications/f…). Trade polls have long fluctuated depending on politics, rhetoric & the economy. /3
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There are a lot of prominent people, who claim to be principled anti-war activists, who led us to believe that Hillary was the *real* threat, that should be absolutely ashamed to show their faces right now. Yet they're all pretending like it never happened.
None of this is surprising if you were paying attention & weren't looking to confirm your biases that #actually Trump might not be so bad (not as bad as Killary). Most of us saw the threat in real time & called it out. It wasn't subtle.
It's just so incredibly frustrating bc it was all so predictable. You demanded that every journalist & pundit who predicted the election results incorrectly be disgraced; yet this was infinitely more consequential. And yet, you've taken zero responsibility for your actions.
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