Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #msogang
Most recents (8)
POSaBIT, a top cannabis payment company, on their 1Q call tonight stated: "...pricing began to stabilize (in March) and many MSOs reported that demand is coming back. In fact, we saw evidence of this in our own transactional sales volume.
$POSAF $PBIT
$POSAF $PBIT
We began accelerating again toward the end of first quarter. Our March volume increased more than 20% compared to February, representing the largest volume month in our corporate history.
And as we headed into second quarter, April outperformed March in terms of transactional volume in revenue."
$VRNOF Earnings - My Takeaways:
1. Strong headline numbers on their first ever qtrly report. Total revs in 2020 up ~200% on PF basis and +247% for Verano standalone and +134% for AltMed (FL) standalone. Mostly organic per my understanding
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1. Strong headline numbers on their first ever qtrly report. Total revs in 2020 up ~200% on PF basis and +247% for Verano standalone and +134% for AltMed (FL) standalone. Mostly organic per my understanding
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2. Margins were very impressive. 63% PF GMs and 48% PF EBITDA margins. Looks like Verano standalone EM was 45% and AltMed was 53.5% in 2020. These are $TCNNF level margins with a more diversified footprint. EBITDA recon. looked fairly clean to me. There were some ??s on that...
3. Core states: IL, FL, AZ, NJ, PA, OH, MD. Company executing on capacity expansions in most of these states and deepening retail footprint throughout. Recent M&A and commentary suggests they aren't done in AZ and PA. I anticipate they will acquire cultivation in PA before YE
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$TCNNF Earnings - My Takeaways:
1. Solid beat on revs and EBITDA
2. Now selling 1 ton of weed/week(!)
3. Dominant position in FL = v strong financial metrics. 2020: 74% GM, 48% EBITDA margin, GAAP EPS of $0.53, CFO positive. Can't be overstated how strong these metrics are
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1. Solid beat on revs and EBITDA
2. Now selling 1 ton of weed/week(!)
3. Dominant position in FL = v strong financial metrics. 2020: 74% GM, 48% EBITDA margin, GAAP EPS of $0.53, CFO positive. Can't be overstated how strong these metrics are
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4. In particular, I'm impressed by the magnitude of GAAP EPS. The company generated GAAP profits (and ~$100M of CFO) AFTER paying a 60% effective tax rate in 2020. Folks got excited about $GTBIF's GAAP profitability last week - $TCNNF easily beating that bar
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5. We should expect some margin dilution over the next 24 months as the company ramps operations outside of FL. Unlikely $TCNNF will be able to achieve such high margins outside of FL so expect blended margins to mix down (not a negative, just math)
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$GTBIF Earnings - My Takeaways:
1. Strong beat across the board. 4Q revs/EBITDA up 2.3x/4.7x yoy, mostly organic. 37% EBITDA margin. Positive on a GAAP net income basis for 2nd straight qtr. 4th straight qtr of positive cash from ops. Execution continues to be v. strong.
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1. Strong beat across the board. 4Q revs/EBITDA up 2.3x/4.7x yoy, mostly organic. 37% EBITDA margin. Positive on a GAAP net income basis for 2nd straight qtr. 4th straight qtr of positive cash from ops. Execution continues to be v. strong.
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2. 54 disp open rn; looking to hit the cap where they can. Driving deep into their core markets
3. CPG mix continues to increase on a net basis from 26% in 1Q to 32% in 4Q.
4. Sounds like they pulled forward a little revenue in 4Q from 1Q21
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3. CPG mix continues to increase on a net basis from 26% in 1Q to 32% in 4Q.
4. Sounds like they pulled forward a little revenue in 4Q from 1Q21
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5. Company invested $110-120M of capex in 2020. "Will go bigger" in 2021
6. Company doesn't think AZ is as attractive as their other markets. I recently heard @Bkov9 say something similar about FL. Interesting given other MSOs are aggressively investing in these two states
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6. Company doesn't think AZ is as attractive as their other markets. I recently heard @Bkov9 say something similar about FL. Interesting given other MSOs are aggressively investing in these two states
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$CCHWF Earnings - My Takeaways:
1. Strong quarter, with highest qtrly EBITDA ever. Key part of the "improving profitability" story
2. Top markets in 4Q: CO, MA, PA, OH, IL
3. CA and FL should be big drivers in 2021
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1. Strong quarter, with highest qtrly EBITDA ever. Key part of the "improving profitability" story
2. Top markets in 4Q: CO, MA, PA, OH, IL
3. CA and FL should be big drivers in 2021
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4. On CA, company is a real believer in the market (unlike most of the MSOs). CC looking to build regional density and scale accordingly. Company also looking to be a major wholesale player
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5. On FL, $CCHWF believes it will be one of their best markets. Company working hard here including launching edibles (2021) and driving operational efficiencies. Sees a lot of "white space" in FL, which I see as a positive readthrough for $TCNNF (and others)
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$AYRWF earnings - my takeaways.
1. Micro misses on 4Q revs and EBITDA but the execution continues to be v strong. 48% organic growth
2. EBITDA margins ticked down due to investments as the company prepares to integrate assets and build foundation for future growth.
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1. Micro misses on 4Q revs and EBITDA but the execution continues to be v strong. 48% organic growth
2. EBITDA margins ticked down due to investments as the company prepares to integrate assets and build foundation for future growth.
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3. $AYRWF mgmt are high quality operators. The 5 NV dispensaries in 4Q generated $21.3MM run-rate revs each(!). MA disp run-rate grew to $11.8MM from $10.1MM in 3Q. MA wholesale grew 109% yoy and 22% qoq. NV performance likely tough to replicate but strong foundation
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4. Company delivered its 7th straight qtr of positive EBITDA and 6th straight qtr of positive CFO. FCF was $22MM for the year...
5. Great year but, the $AYRWF story is a 2021 and 2022 story, on that front...
5. Great year but, the $AYRWF story is a 2021 and 2022 story, on that front...
Took the weekend to revisit and write down my #cannabis thesis.
Company commentary at the bottom. $AYRWF $GTBIF $VRNOF $TCNNF $CRLBF $CURLF
Best ETF: $MSOS
(This post is not investment advice)
Company commentary at the bottom. $AYRWF $GTBIF $VRNOF $TCNNF $CRLBF $CURLF
Best ETF: $MSOS
(This post is not investment advice)
TL;dr:
- Cannabis should grow durably over the next 3-5 years
- Several potential catalysts on the come from new states legalizing cannabis to Congressional action (SAFE Banking, decriminalization, legalization)
- Attractive valuations, especially for the growth...
- Cannabis should grow durably over the next 3-5 years
- Several potential catalysts on the come from new states legalizing cannabis to Congressional action (SAFE Banking, decriminalization, legalization)
- Attractive valuations, especially for the growth...
1) According to @NewFrontierData, cannabis is a $80Bn market today, but only $20Bn are legal sales and $60Bn are illicit. Legal sales are estimated to grow to $41.5Bn in 2025 (mid-teens CAGR) assuming no new states legalize in the future, which is very conservative...
I'm v excited about an #DeFi: an open financial system w reasonable valuations, real users, real revenue, a simple & direct model for remunerating "shareholders" & lenders, & a clear mkt beyond speculators: those w non-traditional income sources.
#ETH $AAVE $UNI $COMP $YFI
1/6
#ETH $AAVE $UNI $COMP $YFI
1/6
#DeFi protocols generate real revenue & distribute it directly to hodlers via coin burns which I think of as "programmatic stock buybacks". They also have known market caps.
This allows valuation via P/S ratios
2/6
theblockcrypto.com/data/decentral…
This allows valuation via P/S ratios
2/6
theblockcrypto.com/data/decentral…
Many #DeFi valuations are smaller than SaaS w higher growth rates.
Annualized revenue & P/S ratios:
- UNI: $1.14B, P/S ~6
- SUSHI: $550M, P/S ~3.5
- COMP: $400M, P/S ~4.3
- AAVE: ~$144M/y w P/S ~30
- MKR: ~$60M, P/S ~30
- SNX: $36M, P/S ~75
3/6
Annualized revenue & P/S ratios:
- UNI: $1.14B, P/S ~6
- SUSHI: $550M, P/S ~3.5
- COMP: $400M, P/S ~4.3
- AAVE: ~$144M/y w P/S ~30
- MKR: ~$60M, P/S ~30
- SNX: $36M, P/S ~75
3/6
