Thread by @Oren_Jacobson

Thread exploring #COVID19 numbers and trends:

I went back to March 3rd (when we hit 100) cases, and tracked growth rate for every day since then. The range from 3/3 through 3/23 was 1.21x to 1.51x, with an average of 1.34x.

medium.com/@ojacobson34/a…

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Yesterday, 3/24, we saw a daily reported positive test growth rate of 1.19x, the lowest we've had. That's good. We now have 55.2k known positive tests as of this morning.

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Our new adjusted average since 3/3 is now 1.33x. Meaning, on average, we're growing in known positive test cases by 33% per day.

Does the fact that we saw a lower rate of growth mean the curve is flattening?

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No, we can't make that assumption yet. We would need to see this lower level hold consistently for several days, if not a week. And, because every state is engaging differently, we're more likely to see sporadic peaks spread out.

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Additionally, the numbers have moved up and down since March 3rd.

For example, the daily growth rate fell on 3/15 and 3/16 and then bounced up higher on 3/17 than what we had on 3/14.

So what should we expect in the next 24 hours? Very hard to say, but here's a range.

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If we keep yesterday's growth rate we would project ending today around 65.7k. And, if we held that exact pace through the weekend (1.19x) we would would project ending the week on Sunday with about 131.8k known positives.

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If we revert to the long-run average (1.33x), we would project ending today around 73.5k. And, if we held that exact pace through the weekend, we would would project ending the week on Sunday with about 229.9k known positives.

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That's obviously a very wide range, but scary either way. If you hold the lower range out (1.19x) we would hit 1M around April 10th. If you hold the average out (1.33x) we would hit 1M around April 4th.

At 1.33x, we cross 1% (3.3M) by April 8th and 2% (6.6M) by April 10th.

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That would be catastrophic. We just don't have enough critical care beds to deal with that kind of systemic overload in a matter of a few weeks. That's the entire freaking problem and that's why #StayAtHome matters. That's why we have to #FlattenTheCurve the curve matters.

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Keep in mind, this is only known positives. We know from reporting in #China they had more than 40k asymptomatic #COVID2019 positive tests and we've not been testing asymptomatic, or in many cases mildly symptomatic people.

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Additionally, a Reuters report out of of #Italy today quoted their head of civil protection as saying it's possible Italy is only capturing 1 in 10 positive test cases right now. Rather than 70,000 positive, they project 700,000.

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What should you make of that? On the surface it lines up with their death tolls if we consider a 1% to 2% mortality rate (though there's appears higher due to the stress on their system).

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We've been told by public health experts that many will get the virus w/o experiencing serious or life-threatening symptoms. The danger isn't necessarily to them, but that they carry and spread the virus to others at a high rate. Hence, why this is a public health crisis.

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How should we think through what's happening here & how cases will continue to grow? This is most difficult part bc every state is managing differently. CA shut down fastest. IL & NY shut down a few days ago (along with others). And, many states haven't actually shut down.

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#Florida Florida, for example, is concerning most of the public health experts because of their elderly population and slow response to social distancing guidelines. It's the next hot spot they're tracking. GA and #
Louisiana are also showing signs that are concerning.

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Because this virus spreads exponentially, and because every state is engaging differently, we will continue to see state by state differences in growth. Lower numbers provide a false sense of security.

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And, by the time you realize it you're in a bad spot and largely only learning what's happened two weeks ago due to the incubation period.

This really means we could be in a situation where virus stays alive longer, peaks at very different times in different states.

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Today its #NewYork. Two weeks from now it could be FL. Two weeks later it could be #Texas.

That's why a national #StayAtHomeOrder order for several weeks makes the most sense.

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Buy time to prepare, try to choke off the virus's growth path, not extend the process by having 50 different states experience 50 different moments of spikes over March, April, and May. It limits the chance of a "rebound spike" in any state as well.

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We've got the #StimulusPlan (almost) done. 55% of America is already under "stay-at-home". This is the perfect time to make that move.

For more info, check out my full article full details and policy options:

medium.com/@ojacobson34/a…