Both headline and core #CPI witnessed declines of -0.8% and -0.4% in April, the result of the dramatic #economic lockdowns across the country in response to the #CoronavirusPandemic, with particular weakness seen in airfares, hotels, used/new car prices and apparel.
While this data clearly illustrates the #disinflationary impact of locking down large segments of the #economy in an effort to gain control of the health crisis, there’s a danger in merely extrapolating recent trends.
In fact, we think 2020’s broad #deflationary influences may well lead to higher rates of #inflation next year.
That is at least in part due to the fiscal and #monetary policy response to the #economic crisis, which has been nothing short of monumental, and it should go some distance toward supporting #markets and #prices.
Further, even a modest re-setting of #oil prices over the next 18 months could drive 2021 #inflation in a manner that offsets some of the declines occurring now.
This is not to suggest that we see runaway #inflation coming down the road, we do not, but the #market’s pricing of inflation, at effectively zero, as breakeven #markets suggest, is unrealistic and excessively pessimistic.
Share this Scrolly Tale with your friends.
A Scrolly Tale is a new way to read Twitter threads with a more visually immersive experience.
Discover more beautiful Scrolly Tales like this.