Thread by @UKandEU

#Immigration was a central factor in the 2016 #Brexit referendum.

Where is the debate heading now?

@jdportes explores in our first ever #longread.

#ThursdayThread

ukandeu.ac.uk/immigration-be…

First, some context.

In the Leave campaign, there wasn't consensus on post-#Brexit immigration policy.

However, when @theresa_may took over as PM she pledged, "we are not leaving the EU only to give up control of immigration."

This set the course for a more distant relationship with the #EU and only limited provisions on the movement of workers between the UK and EU in future.

The 3.5m EU citizens living in the UK also played an important role in the post-referendum period.

The government has implemented a scheme to ensure EU citizens already in the UK the right to remain in future.

One of the biggest changes from the UK leaving the EU will be a new post-#Brexit immigration system.

However, the current context is very different to that before and during the referendum.

In June 2016 net migration to the UK reached a record 333,000, with over 200,000 from #EU countries.

However, since the referendum net EU migration to the UK has fallen by around 150,000, partly offset by continued rising non-EU migration.

Public opinion has also shifted since the referendum.

#Immigration has become much less salient and many more people now say it has had a positive impact on the UK than a negative one.

So what will change in future?

Most obviously, free movement will end on 31 December.

The proposed new immigration system will include a salary and skill threshold.

For the NHS, the skill threshold will mean the salary threshold is irrelevant.

There will also be an agricultural workers scheme, but no other sectoral measures.

This new system will have two distinct effects.

For EU migration, it will mark a significant tightening of rules.

For non-EU migrants, it will be a considerable liberalisation.

What impact will this have on overall numbers?

First, EU migration has already fallen dramatically.

The impact on non-EU migrants may only be small.

The overall economic impact is expected to be neutral or slightly positive.

Had this system been in place for the past 15 years, GDP and population would be lower, but income per head would be slightly higher.

Sectoral impacts will vary, but sectors such as social care, where salary and skill thresholds may be too low to qualify, could be hardest hit.

So what next?

The proposed system sits uneasily with the government's wider economic agenda to 'level up' less affluent parts of the country.

Salary thresholds are likely to be easiest to meet in areas, such as London, where they are already high.

The biggest issue, however, is #Covid.

The policy environment has been transformed.

The current #immigration policy was designed for a pre-#Covid age and may require major rethinking in future.