John Quakes Profile picture
Retired Earth Sciences Researcher, Professor, Analyst, Writer, Trekker and Explorer. ๐Ÿฅพ๐ŸŒŽ Invested in the Global #Nuclear & #Uranium Renaissance ๐ŸŒ…โš›๏ธโšก๏ธโ›๏ธ ๐Ÿค ๐Ÿ‚

Oct 1, 2020, 6 tweets

#Uranium Market Update in a nutshell๐Ÿฅœ #U3O8 continues to be a best performing commodity of 2020, up 25% YTD, up 69% from its bottom in November 2016.๐Ÿ‚๐Ÿ“ˆ #Nuclear power growth remains robust โš›๏ธ๐Ÿ—๏ธโ†—๏ธ Demand at 182M lbs/yr & rising, Supply deficit ~60M lbs, -317M lbs by 2026โ›๏ธโฌ๐Ÿ—œ๏ธ

#Uranium has strong #bullish outlook ๐Ÿ‚๐Ÿ”ฎ #Nuclear utility contracting has been below normal for past 8 yrs. Re-stocking cycle overdue with growing uncovered demand & delayed Long-term contracting since 2012.โŒ›๏ธ

With such strong #Uranium supply/demand fundamentals, why is #U3O8 market rebalance taking so long? ๐Ÿค” Trade Issues, Russian Suspension Agreement, #COVID19 have sidelined #nuclear utilities BUT trade issues nearing resolution, utilities getting back to work, #China going all-in๐Ÿ—๏ธ

Secondary Supplies have been holding back #Uranium price response.๐ŸŒง๏ธ But inventory drawdown has accelerated, #Japan restarts coming, Kazatomprom has abandoned Spot #U3O8 market sales, Carry trades harder to execute.๐Ÿ‚ #Nuclear getting #CarbonFree #GreenEnergy & #SMR boost.๐ŸŒžโš›๏ธโ†—๏ธ

With #Uranium mines shutting down in #Niger & #Australia next year, while #Nuclear fuel demand rises โ†•๏ธ there is a growing "Market Appetite" for new #U3O8 mines to fill supply gap.โ›๏ธ But, U price too low to stimulate new production... needs to double to bring new mines online๐Ÿ’ฒโซ

Current #Uranium Market can be described as a Spring Coiling Ever Tighter๐Ÿ—œ๏ธ - Whether it 'Pops' not a question of 'If' but 'When?' โŒ›๏ธโคด๏ธ #Nuclear demand robust & growing, falling production accelerating market rebalancing, re-stocking cycle delayed & looming, new mines needed.๐Ÿ‚๐Ÿš€

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