Thread by @Jhdharrison1

THREAD:

#Henderson’s shot prevention has been class in his first 8 #PremierLeague games & its played a big part in #ManchesterUnited’s success!

He is preventing 3.07 chances occurring per game corresponding to ~0.44 ExG per game!

That’s double #DeGea’s ExG prevented per game!

Here I will compare #Henderson’s cross claiming & sweeping (the two branches of shot prevention) so far this year to #DeGea’s & discuss how this has affected #ManchesterUnited’s defence.

I will use my shot prevention model as sadly mainstream models miss many important actions!

Sweeping:

#Henderson’s sweeping has been highlighted after his tidy display vs #THFC & it wasn’t a one off!

So far this year for #ManchesterUnited he has prevented 11 opposition chances occurring by sweeping which corresponds to preventing 0.15 ExG/90 (#PL avg is 0.10 ExG/90)

#DeGea’s sweeping has been criticised but actually he’s been far more active than last year but indeed he’s still sweeping at a below avg rate!

#DeGea has prevented 14 opposition chances occurring by sweeping which corresponds to preventing 0.07 ExG/90 (#PL avg is 0.10 ExG/90)

#Henderson’s sweeping vs #DeGea’s

1. #Henderson sweeps more often & further from goal & this has so far prevented an additional 0.08 ExG per game (ie saves #MUFC 1 additional goal every 12 games)

2. #DeGea retains possession more often as he seldom chooses to clears the ball

Claiming:

Many have noted how active #Henderson is when it comes to claiming & so far this year for #ManchesterUnited he has prevented 12 opposition chances occurring by claiming crosses which corresponds to preventing 0.29 ExG/90 which is well above the #PL avg of 0.20 ExG/90!

#DeGea’s claiming has been criticised again this year which is a little unfair.

#DeGea has prevented 18 opposition chances occurring by claiming crosses which corresponds to preventing 0.15 ExG/90 which is below the #PL avg of 0.20 ExG/90 but is hardly disastrous.

#Henderson’s claiming vs #DeGea’s

1. #Henderson claims more often & further from goal & this has prevented an additional 0.14 ExG per game (ie saves #MUFC 1 additional goal every 7 games)

2. #DeGea is tidier & catches more often but this is cos he comes for “easier” crosses.

Conclusion:

#Henderson’s prevention is above avg while #DeGea’s prevention is below avg

#Henderson’s claiming+sweeping has prevented #MUFC conceding an extra 0.22 ExG/90 vs #DeGea

#DeGea is tidier when he claims+sweeps but this doesnt outweigh the fact he is far less active

The fact #Henderson sweeps further from goal & claims crosses further from goal than #DeGea is a big plus for #ManchesterUnited’s defence as it means they can play higher & concentrate on defending a smaller area safe in the knowledge that #Henderson will come out if needed!

That’s the thread!

As always feel free to ask any questions!

I have attached my thread which outlines how my shot prevention model works below so please read that before asking questions about the model as they are likely answered there!

Here is a thread I wrote last year about how #Henderson was a superior preventer to #DeGea & how that could be vitally important when it came to Ole deciding who was first choice!

It’s fun to see that he’s managed to reproduce his #SUFC numbers at #MUFC!