Thread by @Jhdharrison1

THREAD:

#Henderson’s shot prevention has been class in his first 8 #PremierLeague games & its played a big part in #ManchesterUnited’s success!

He is preventing 3.07 chances occurring per game corresponding to ~0.44 ExG per game!

That’s double #DeGea’s ExG prevented per game!

Here I will compare #Henderson’s cross claiming & sweeping (the two branches of shot prevention) so far this year to #DeGea’s & discuss how this has affected #ManchesterUnited’s defence.

I will use my shot prevention model as sadly mainstream models miss many important actions!

Sweeping:

#Henderson’s sweeping has been highlighted after his tidy display vs #THFC & it wasn’t a one off!

So far this year for #ManchesterUnited he has prevented 11 opposition chances occurring by sweeping which corresponds to preventing 0.15 ExG/90 (#PL avg is 0.10 ExG/90)

#DeGea’s sweeping has been criticised but actually he’s been far more active than last year but indeed he’s still sweeping at a below avg rate!

#DeGea has prevented 14 opposition chances occurring by sweeping which corresponds to preventing 0.07 ExG/90 (#PL avg is 0.10 ExG/90)

#Henderson’s sweeping vs #DeGea’s

1. #Henderson sweeps more often & further from goal & this has so far prevented an additional 0.08 ExG per game (ie saves #MUFC 1 additional goal every 12 games)

2. #DeGea retains possession more often as he seldom chooses to clears the ball

Claiming:

Many have noted how active #Henderson is when it comes to claiming & so far this year for #ManchesterUnited he has prevented 12 opposition chances occurring by claiming crosses which corresponds to preventing 0.29 ExG/90 which is well above the #PL avg of 0.20 ExG/90!

#DeGea’s claiming has been criticised again this year which is a little unfair.

#DeGea has prevented 18 opposition chances occurring by claiming crosses which corresponds to preventing 0.15 ExG/90 which is below the #PL avg of 0.20 ExG/90 but is hardly disastrous.

#Henderson’s claiming vs #DeGea’s

1. #Henderson claims more often & further from goal & this has prevented an additional 0.14 ExG per game (ie saves #MUFC 1 additional goal every 7 games)

2. #DeGea is tidier & catches more often but this is cos he comes for “easier” crosses.

Conclusion:

#Henderson’s prevention is above avg while #DeGea’s prevention is below avg

#Henderson’s claiming+sweeping has prevented #MUFC conceding an extra 0.22 ExG/90 vs #DeGea

#DeGea is tidier when he claims+sweeps but this doesnt outweigh the fact he is far less active

The fact #Henderson sweeps further from goal & claims crosses further from goal than #DeGea is a big plus for #ManchesterUnited’s defence as it means they can play higher & concentrate on defending a smaller area safe in the knowledge that #Henderson will come out if needed!

That’s the thread!

As always feel free to ask any questions!

I have attached my thread which outlines how my shot prevention model works below so please read that before asking questions about the model as they are likely answered there!

https://twitter.com/jhdharrison1/status/1307341104522702848?s=21

Here is a thread I wrote last year about how #Henderson was a superior preventer to #DeGea & how that could be vitally important when it came to Ole deciding who was first choice!

It’s fun to see that he’s managed to reproduce his #SUFC numbers at #MUFC!

https://twitter.com/jhdharrison1/status/1301563959238111235?s=21