Thread by @james_rogers

[Thread on the #EU/#NATO and deterrence] I keep hearing that an empowered EU, through Article 42.7 in the Treaty of Lisbon, could replace or complement @NATO’s Article 5. Anyone who thinks this is living in a dangerous fantasy world. Here’s why... [1/13]

If boiled down, Article 5 is a security guarantee issued ultimately by #NATO’s nuclear powers (🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷) to the rest of the alliance. The guarantee is this: if you attack NATO, we will inflict unacceptable damage on you, even if you can do the same to us... [2/13]

Without a shadow of a doubt, nobody can afford to make a nuclear power desperate – especially not a nuclear-armed peer. It doesn’t really matter that #Russia or the #US have more weapons than the #UK and #France. The latter can wipe out most enemy population centres... [3/13]

But it gets trickier with alliances. Would the #UK prime minister really risk London or Manchester in the event that Estonia or Romania, say, came under attack? Do the Russians think the UK would? Maybe, maybe not... [4/13]

Within an alliance, the nuclear powers therefore need to ‘extend’ their nuclear forces over non-nuclear allies. How do they do this? Through conventional forces, forwardly deployed... [5/13]

During the Cold War with the #USSR, the #UK and #US deployed 55,000 and 200,000+ to West Germany to ‘extend’ and ‘actualise’ their nuclear deterrents... [6/13]

Theory went: the #USSR would surely know that an attack on these conventional forces would almost certainly guarantee escalation – eventually, even quickly, to the nuclear level. This deterred a Soviet attack... [7/13]

This is why #Russia’s 2014 invasion of #Ukraine was met with the Enhanced/Tailored Forward Presence (EFP/TFP). Previously, there were no forwardly deployed #UK/#US forces along #NATO’s frontier to near-guarantee escalation to the nuclear level in the event of an attack... [8/13]

Now there are several thousand #UK and #US forces operating in the most exposed allies (🇪🇪🇱🇻🇱🇹🇵🇱🇷🇴). #France has also contributed to the EFP and TFP (in 🇪🇪🇷🇴) thereby extending its nuclear deterrent for the first time in many years... [9/13]

This is why the #EU can’t provide defence or deterrence in the way #NATO can. Unless #France is prepared to place its nuclear forces under EU command or deploy thousands of conventional forces along the EU’s exposed flanks, the EU cannot deter... [10/13]

So let’s focus on #NATO as the principal defence alliance in #Europe. Unlike the #EU, it includes the #UK and #US and has stood the test of time for over 70 years... [11/13]

If Europeans want to enhance the defence of Europe they should generate conventional forces to reinforce the #UK, #US and French forward deployed forces which act as #NATO’s ‘tripwires’... [12/13]

The ability to reinforce the #EFP and #TFP will create a stronger connection with #UK, #US and French nuclear forces, binding the @NATO web of deterrence together in a more cohesive and resolute way. Anything else is fantasy... [End/13]