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AI-driven system tracking violence, forecasting risk, and mapping narratives

Apr 4, 2022, 9 tweets

1. Over the last 24 hours, we’ve been tracking pro-#Kremlin responses to #Bucha on #Telegram and #VK.

Pro-#Russia voices started by outright denying it, but by the end of the day, guided by strategic disinformation from the #Kremlin, they were blaming it on #Ukraine.

2. Initially, proponents of the invasion said it was all a lie, citing a clip of the mayor of #Bucha purportedly celebrating the liberation of the town days earlier but not mentioning any massacres.

3. Then, the preferred framing shifted to one that blamed the deaths on #Ukraine artillery fire.

The "supporting evidence" for this claim was a clip of a purported #UKR soldier talking about indiscriminate mortar fire against #RUS positions in the southeast a few weeks ago.

4. When it became clear that people had been executed, not “just” killed by artillery, the framing morphed again—now it was all about staging.

This was pinned to a single clip in which Russian activists claimed corpses could be seen “moving” and were the "wrong colour.”

5. Eventually, it became impossible to keep the "staging" narrative up as more images and clips streamed out.

At that point, the #Kremlin's preferred framing shifted to the idea that #Bucha was a "false flag" and, accordingly, a "#Ukrainian war crime."

6. There are two variants of this narrative building off just three bits of "evidence":

- First, that #UKR forces were overzealous and indiscriminate when pushing the #Russia|ns out.

- Second, that they were genocidally "cleansing" #Bucha of supporters of the Russian war.

7. This is just one vivid example of how the #Kremlin and its supporters are now navigating through the #Ukraine information space.

The subject matter varies, but it’s this same formula of selective framing and audacious disinfo that we’re seeing repeat time and again.

8. Interestingly, pro-#Kremlin feeds are remarkably devoid of any images from #Bucha that are being circulated by parties other than #Russia|n state media.

#Moscow's supporters appear to be completely siloed, cut off from anything other than their own misinformation.

9. For more information on the work we’re doing at @Ex_Trac, visit extrac.io and sign up.

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