Thread by @JominiW

1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 52-54: The past 172 hrs. have seen Russian forces reduce Ukrainian defenses in Mariupol to the Azovstal area. Ukrainian forces around Kharkiv launch several successful counterattacks while Russia builds forces near Izium. #Ukraine #UkraineInvasion

2/ Humanitarian Impact. Ukrainian refugees top 6.67 million, with over 6.6 million IDPs throughout Ukraine. 27 European countries are hosting Ukrainian Refugees, with many eastern European nations taking the weight of this humanitarian crisis.

3/ Weather Impact. The 10-day forecast for most of the Donbas-Kherson TVD will comprise of increased cloud cover & rainstorms, wind speed will generally average at 8 mph. Air & artillery strikes will remain degraded, while heavy rain continues to restrict ground movement.

4/ Kharkiv OD. Ukraine appears to be reinforcing the Kharkiv OD, the 93rd Mech Brigade is reportedly operating in NW Kharkiv now. Successful counterattacks SE of Chuhuiv may be expanded in the coming days to threaten Russian GLOCs to the east. #Kharkiv

5/ As assessed late last week, the Kharkiv OD may potentially become 1 of 2 battle zones for the Ukrainian military. A weighted counteroffensive in this area will sever Russian GLOCs running from Belgorod & Valuyki to the Izium area.

6/ Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD. Russian forces have increased offensive activity in Severodonetsk Salient over the past 24 hours. Although these attacks have not made significant gains they could be the start of the anticipated general Donbas offensive. #Izium #Severodonetsk

7/ Ukrainian and western intelligence statements claim Russia has massed at least 22 Battalion Tactical Groups in the Izium area. Even with severely damaged units, a force of this size could make a meaningful breakthrough if properly employed to make & exploit one.

8/ Zaporizhzhia OD. Russian activity in the in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast remains focused on the capture of Mariupol. Limited attacks and counterattacks by Russian and Ukrainian forces continue between the line running from Vasylivka to Volnovakha.

9/ Mariupol. Russian forces will more than likely defeat the remaining Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol in the coming week. Ukrainian defenders will not make it easy for the Russians, they will most likely force them to storm their positions rather than surrender. #Mariupol

10/ Odesa-Kherson OD. Fighting continues for the control of Oleksandrivka to the west of Kherson. There has been little other action in this area over the past 72 hours. #Kherson #Odesa

11/ Aerospace Assessment. U.S. intelligence estimates that the VKS averages 200 air sorties a day. Russia is still able to conduct missile strikes against Kyiv and into western Ukraine to target both critical infrastructure and civilians alike.

12/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War from a variety of sources. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.

13/ Information regarding Ukrainian units are meant to be general, are based on Ukrainian General Staff statements and social media posts, official Ukrainian government press releases, and local news. It does not depict current unit movements.