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Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
@JominiW
Apr 19, 2022 • 13 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 52-54: The past 172 hrs. have seen Russian forces reduce Ukrainian defenses in Mariupol to the Azovstal area. Ukrainian forces around Kharkiv launch several successful counterattacks while Russia builds forces near Izium. #Ukraine #UkraineInvasion
2/ Humanitarian Impact. Ukrainian refugees top 6.67 million, with over 6.6 million IDPs throughout Ukraine. 27 European countries are hosting Ukrainian Refugees, with many eastern European nations taking the weight of this humanitarian crisis.
3/ Weather Impact. The 10-day forecast for most of the Donbas-Kherson TVD will comprise of increased cloud cover & rainstorms, wind speed will generally average at 8 mph. Air & artillery strikes will remain degraded, while heavy rain continues to restrict ground movement.
4/ Kharkiv OD. Ukraine appears to be reinforcing the Kharkiv OD, the 93rd Mech Brigade is reportedly operating in NW Kharkiv now. Successful counterattacks SE of Chuhuiv may be expanded in the coming days to threaten Russian GLOCs to the east. #Kharkiv
5/ As assessed late last week, the Kharkiv OD may potentially become 1 of 2 battle zones for the Ukrainian military. A weighted counteroffensive in this area will sever Russian GLOCs running from Belgorod & Valuyki to the Izium area.
6/ Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD. Russian forces have increased offensive activity in Severodonetsk Salient over the past 24 hours. Although these attacks have not made significant gains they could be the start of the anticipated general Donbas offensive. #Izium #Severodonetsk
7/ Ukrainian and western intelligence statements claim Russia has massed at least 22 Battalion Tactical Groups in the Izium area. Even with severely damaged units, a force of this size could make a meaningful breakthrough if properly employed to make & exploit one.
8/ Zaporizhzhia OD. Russian activity in the in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast remains focused on the capture of Mariupol. Limited attacks and counterattacks by Russian and Ukrainian forces continue between the line running from Vasylivka to Volnovakha.
9/ Mariupol. Russian forces will more than likely defeat the remaining Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol in the coming week. Ukrainian defenders will not make it easy for the Russians, they will most likely force them to storm their positions rather than surrender. #Mariupol
10/ Odesa-Kherson OD. Fighting continues for the control of Oleksandrivka to the west of Kherson. There has been little other action in this area over the past 72 hours. #Kherson #Odesa
11/ Aerospace Assessment. U.S. intelligence estimates that the VKS averages 200 air sorties a day. Russia is still able to conduct missile strikes against Kyiv and into western Ukraine to target both critical infrastructure and civilians alike.
12/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War from a variety of sources. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.
13/ Information regarding Ukrainian units are meant to be general, are based on Ukrainian General Staff statements and social media posts, official Ukrainian government press releases, and local news. It does not depict current unit movements.

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More from @JominiW

Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Nov 5
1/ Election Day in the United States is finally here. The Presidential Race between Republican Candidate, Former President Donald Trump, and Democratic Candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, has been polarizing, to say the least, with anxiety running high for not only Americans but people around the world, on its outcome. Ukrainians likely have the highest amount of anxiety over the outcome of the U.S. Presidential Election, as the winner will almost certainly set the war on a trajectory that will either enable a Ukrainian victory or a capitulation. #UkraineWar #UkraineRussiaWar️️ #USAElection2024 #HarrisWalz2024 #TrumpVance2024 #PresidentialElectionsImage
2/ According to a Bipartisan Policy Center report, an estimated 244 million Americans are eligible to vote. The 2022 mid-term elections saw 161.42 million Americans registered to vote. However, the turnout saw roughly 75 million people vote, or 46.6% of the electorate. By comparison, approximately 158.4 million Americans voted in the 2020 Presidential Election out of 240 million eligible voters (168.3 million registered), a turnout of 66%. According to the New York Times, 78 million Americans have already cast their votes through early voting. Suppose the 2024 election cycle sees at least the same percentages of the electorate participate. In that case, at least 161.04 million people will cast ballots for the 2024 Presidential Election, with possibly roughly 48% of those votes already having been cast through early voting.Image
3/ Polls across the United States generally open between 0500-0600 locally, with polls closing between 1900-2000 locally. The first polls will close on the eastern seaboard of the United States at 2000 EST (0100 GMT). It will take several hours for the first returns to come in, but all eyes will be on the turnout in the 7-battleground states in this election: Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona (though some elections models have the state leaning Republican in the final days of the Presidential Race), Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.Image
Read 10 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Nov 5
1/ Ukrainian TVD Daily Tactical Update (DTU) (Day 983): Since Sept 17, the situation in the Ukrainian TVD has deteriorated for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (ZSU). As of 04 November 2024, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (VSRF) retain the strategic initiative and have improved positive operational momentum in the Donbas, specifically throughout the southern Donetsk Oblast. This thread provides a general overview of events since mid-September. #UkraineWar #Donbas #Pokrovsk #Kupyansk #Pishchance #Vuhledar #KurakhoveImage
2/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (note: I am still refining and updating this list, please bear with me as I do, thank you). Image
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3/ Northern Strategic Direction: The Northern Strategic Direction (SD) is now the TVDs secondary SD. There is remote potential for ZSU operations in this SD to shift the strategic initiative in Ukraine’s favor. Despite some tactical and operational success in Kursk, the Government of Ukraine failed to achieve its principal strategic goal, to compel the United States to lift restrictions on the use of long-range strike weapons on targets within the Russian Federation. The ZSU remains faced with the dilemma of either continuing to reinforce efforts in Kursk or transition to the defensive and shore up the operational deterioration of OSUV Tavriya’s strategic flank in southern Donetsk Oblast. The decision on where to place its operational focus during the winter of 2024-25 will impact the strategic trajectory of the war.Image
Read 13 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Sep 18
1/ Ukraine TVD, Day 935: As of 16 September, the VSRF retains the strategic initiative and positive operational momentum throughout the Ukrainian TVD. The ZSU continues efforts to expand the Kursk lodgment, with Russian ground forces conducting a counterattack in the Korenevo area. OGV Sever offensive actions, through reduced in scale, maintain the ability to fix a significant number of Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv region. In the Donbas elements of the 2GCAA have slowed their advance on Pokrovsk for logistical resupply, with the 201MRD attacking through the operational flank of OSUV Tavriya south of the M30 highway. In Zaporizhzhia, elements of OSV Tsentr and Vostok have renewed offensive action in the Vuhledar area, pressing hard for Bohoiavlenka. The VKS stepped up strikes on Ukraine's energy grid while the PSU continues large drone strikes targeting fuel and energy complex facilities in the Moscow region. #UkraineRussiaWar️️ #UkraineWarNews #UkraineFrontLines #RussianArmy #UkraineNeverSurrenders #RussiaImage
2/ Current weather outlook for the Ukraine TVD. Weather will not significantly impact ongoing operations. Weather favors offensive action. Courtesy of @davidhelms570
3/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (note: I am still refining and updating this list, please bear with me as I do, thank you).


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Read 17 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Sep 4
1/ Ukraine TVD, Day 921: As of 02 September, the VSRF retains the strategic initiative and positive operational momentum throughout the Ukrainian TVD. The ZSU continues efforts to expand the Kursk lodgment, with Russian ground forces attempting to push Ukrainian troops from Korenevo. OGV Sever offensive actions, through reduced in scale, maintain the ability to fix a significant number of Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv region. In the Donbas elements of the 90GTD, 27GMRD, and 201MRD carry on their advance towards Pokrovsk, with the 201MRD now threatening the operational flank of OSUV Tavriya south of the M30 highway. In Zaporizhzhia, OSV Vostok appears to be preparing for offensive action in the Vuhledararea. The VKS stepped up strikes on Ukraine's energy grid while the PSU conducted a large drone strike targeting fuel and energy complex facilities in the Moscow region. #UkraineRussiaWar️️ #UkraineFrontLines #RussianArmy #UkraineNeverSurrenders #RussiaImage
2/ Current weather outlook for the Ukraine TVD. Weather will not significantly impact ongoing operations. Weather favors offensive action. Courtesy of @davidhelms570
3/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (note: I am still refining and updating this list, please bear with me as I do, thank you).


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Read 10 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Apr 7, 2023
1/ Ukraine TVD, 20 FEB-07 APR 23. The past 7 weeks saw a continuation of the Russian Winter Offensive as major pushes continued in Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka. Russia made important gains, Ukrainian defenses continue to hold. #UkraineRussiaWar #RussianArmy #UkraineFrontLines Image
2/ Current weather outlook for the Ukraine TVD. The mud season will continue to impede maneuver, especially in severely restricted terrain. The weather favors small-scale assault forces. Night operations will continue to be difficult.
3/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (note: I am still refining and updating this list, please bear with me as I do, thank you). ImageImageImageImage
Read 17 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Feb 22, 2023
1/ Ukraine TVD, 8-19 FEB 23. The past 2 weeks of February saw the Russian Winter Offensive intensify as major pushes continued in Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Vuhledar. Russian made few gains, Ukrainian defenses continue to hold. #UkraineRussiaWar #RussianArmy #UkraineFrontLines
2/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (note: I am still refining and updating this list, please bear with me as I do, thank you).
3/ Luhansk OD. Russian forces press their attack in the Kreminna area. Svatove has been reinforced by the 98th GABD, signaling a Russian intent to push toward Kupyansk soon. UKR forces will continue to defend in depth & transition to the offense when opportunities arise. #Luhansk
Read 14 tweets

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