Thread by @MisterSpread

#analysis #10YRUS #DXY #crypto #SP500 #EURUSD #Bitcoin #ETH #EGLD

1/16 Good evening everyone,

All eyes where on the CPI, Core CPI and PPI reports this week. The slowdown in inflation is actually a confirmation that FED's demand destruction program starts to be felt by markets.

2/16 The 10YUS bonds are retesting now the "Neckline" of the daily Head&Shoulders. If buyers manage to push the price beyond 2.9% and close above it on a weekly closing basis, it means that the breakout was a fakeout and that might put a break to the RiskOn assets rally.

4/16 Continuing my idea from the last analysis, DXY looks toppy on monthly and it confirmed my fakeout theory. I still want to see more confirmation, meaning a clear weekly close under 105, but for now RiskOn assets are happy with this weaker DXY.

3/16 By the looks of the equities move one would argue that this bearmarket rally has more juice and can squeeze the shorts even more. The better than expected inflation reports gave the markets enough courage to continue to buy into this move.

4/16 Continuing my idea from the last analysis, DXY looks toppy on monthly and it confirmed my fakeout theory. I still want to see more confirmation, meaning a clear weekly close under 105, but for now RiskOn assets are happy with this weaker DXY.

5/16 On daily the Dollar Index suffered after the last inflation reports and tanked -2%. It's the first time since February this year when DXY loses the diagonal support trend line on daily. Still no close under 105, so I'm patiently waiting.

6/16 There is a saying on FinTwitt that says "Don't fight the FED" but, if there's someone who can actually debunk this myth is the US Bond market who can actually fight the FED and sometimes win. It's not easy predicting FED's next moves, but bonds have a tell.

7/16 Very tricky to maneuver in this totally new and strange $MACRO environment. On one hand you look at US Bond market and inflation data and you would think FED will pivot, but on the other hand you see all the Euro zone risks, so what's going to weigh more?

8/16 $EURO chart doesn't look great and even with FED potential pivot, there's a lot to think about in Europe. In my opinion it would take a ceasefire in Ukraine, a resume of normal Gas flows, continues ECB rate hikes and heavy rains to avoid a bigger energy crisis.

9/16 If ( BIG IF ) all of the above would happen, #EURO needs about a 7% rally vs the USD and close above 1.093 to reverse this macro downtrend. Very unlikely this can happen with the current situation. Also it would need a DXY at around 100 mark, so very unlikely shortterm.

10/16 SP500 is a beast lately smashing resistance after resistance and drinking bears tears on its way. It went like hot knife in butter through 4180-4200 resistance area & flipped it to daily support. The 4310 area is key going forward and a retrace would be actually healthy.

11/16 Unfortunately not the same thing we can say about Bitcoin lately. I would have expected a much better performance from it given the SP500 rally. After the inflation reports buyers managed to push the price above 24.3k with good volume, but the daily close was still under.

12/16 Yes volumes where higher last few days, but with all the good news from traditional markets + the #BlackRock news I was expecting BTC to attempt at least a rally towards 26.7k. Another worring sign? Yesterday candle is a "gravestone doji" & we can see a trend reversal.

13/16 ETH was on a tear last two months, rallying more than 120%. Fueled by the MERGE news and the successful latest upgrades the #altcoins leader managed to push above $1900 resistance area but volumes are decreasing. A potential 10-15% retrace can happen before other rally.

14/16 ETHBTC reached the target at 0.0768 placed 5 days ago and smashed through it. With Bitcoin in range traders focused on ETH which has now flipped 0.0768 from resistance to daily support. Next target for ETHBTC is 0.0826 the 10th of May2021 highs.

15/16 Arriving at $EGLD we can see that the line in the sand or the battlefield between bulls and bears short term is the $65 area. Although buyers managed to push the price towards $70, there is a long way to go before we see a clear break from the downtrend.

16/16 I want to see buyers being more present and push the price above $77 and $90 and close firmly on weekly above these levels before we can talk about a trend reversal.

Areas of interest $EGLD :

Support: $53, $48, $44

Resistance: $72 , $77, $81

Stay safe and green trades!