MisterSpread Profile picture
Aug 12, 2022 17 tweets 9 min read Read on X
#analysis #10YRUS #DXY #crypto #SP500 #EURUSD #Bitcoin #ETH #EGLD

1/16 Good evening everyone,

All eyes where on the CPI, Core CPI and PPI reports this week. The slowdown in inflation is actually a confirmation that FED's demand destruction program starts to be felt by markets.
2/16 The 10YUS bonds are retesting now the "Neckline" of the daily Head&Shoulders. If buyers manage to push the price beyond 2.9% and close above it on a weekly closing basis, it means that the breakout was a fakeout and that might put a break to the RiskOn assets rally.
4/16 Continuing my idea from the last analysis, DXY looks toppy on monthly and it confirmed my fakeout theory. I still want to see more confirmation, meaning a clear weekly close under 105, but for now RiskOn assets are happy with this weaker DXY.

3/16 By the looks of the equities move one would argue that this bearmarket rally has more juice and can squeeze the shorts even more. The better than expected inflation reports gave the markets enough courage to continue to buy into this move.
4/16 Continuing my idea from the last analysis, DXY looks toppy on monthly and it confirmed my fakeout theory. I still want to see more confirmation, meaning a clear weekly close under 105, but for now RiskOn assets are happy with this weaker DXY.

5/16 On daily the Dollar Index suffered after the last inflation reports and tanked -2%. It's the first time since February this year when DXY loses the diagonal support trend line on daily. Still no close under 105, so I'm patiently waiting.

6/16 There is a saying on FinTwitt that says "Don't fight the FED" but, if there's someone who can actually debunk this myth is the US Bond market who can actually fight the FED and sometimes win. It's not easy predicting FED's next moves, but bonds have a tell.
7/16 Very tricky to maneuver in this totally new and strange $MACRO environment. On one hand you look at US Bond market and inflation data and you would think FED will pivot, but on the other hand you see all the Euro zone risks, so what's going to weigh more?
8/16 $EURO chart doesn't look great and even with FED potential pivot, there's a lot to think about in Europe. In my opinion it would take a ceasefire in Ukraine, a resume of normal Gas flows, continues ECB rate hikes and heavy rains to avoid a bigger energy crisis.
9/16 If ( BIG IF ) all of the above would happen, #EURO needs about a 7% rally vs the USD and close above 1.093 to reverse this macro downtrend. Very unlikely this can happen with the current situation. Also it would need a DXY at around 100 mark, so very unlikely shortterm.
10/16 SP500 is a beast lately smashing resistance after resistance and drinking bears tears on its way. It went like hot knife in butter through 4180-4200 resistance area & flipped it to daily support. The 4310 area is key going forward and a retrace would be actually healthy.
11/16 Unfortunately not the same thing we can say about Bitcoin lately. I would have expected a much better performance from it given the SP500 rally. After the inflation reports buyers managed to push the price above 24.3k with good volume, but the daily close was still under.
12/16 Yes volumes where higher last few days, but with all the good news from traditional markets + the #BlackRock news I was expecting BTC to attempt at least a rally towards 26.7k. Another worring sign? Yesterday candle is a "gravestone doji" & we can see a trend reversal.
13/16 ETH was on a tear last two months, rallying more than 120%. Fueled by the MERGE news and the successful latest upgrades the #altcoins leader managed to push above $1900 resistance area but volumes are decreasing. A potential 10-15% retrace can happen before other rally.
14/16 ETHBTC reached the target at 0.0768 placed 5 days ago and smashed through it. With Bitcoin in range traders focused on ETH which has now flipped 0.0768 from resistance to daily support. Next target for ETHBTC is 0.0826 the 10th of May2021 highs.

15/16 Arriving at $EGLD we can see that the line in the sand or the battlefield between bulls and bears short term is the $65 area. Although buyers managed to push the price towards $70, there is a long way to go before we see a clear break from the downtrend.
16/16 I want to see buyers being more present and push the price above $77 and $90 and close firmly on weekly above these levels before we can talk about a trend reversal.

Areas of interest $EGLD :

Support: $53, $48, $44

Resistance: $72 , $77, $81

Stay safe and green trades!

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More from @MisterSpread

Jan 2, 2023
Hi everyone,

Thought is a good idea to start 2023 with a thread about some macro correlations, explained in an easier way in order for everyone to understand the connection between FED Interest Rate> US Bonds> A potential Recession> Higher Unemployment Rate> higher crime rate.👇
2/ Why did I leave the last link of this chain > "Potentially higher crime rate" , because I wanted to deconstruct @michaeljburry thought process and understand why the 2 stocks which make up 50% of his portfolio are private prisons US companies: GEO Group & CoreCivic.
3/ Let's cut straight to the mustard and start adding the links to this macro chain:

The federal funds rate, which is the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate, is one of the main ways that the central bank can reshape the economy.
Read 24 tweets
Aug 29, 2022
Hello everyone,

1/23 This thread is dedicated to @SantiagoAuFund - Dollar Milkshake Theory.
I thought it's a good idea to break down the "ingredients" in DXY milkshake, but from TA only perspective.
Let's dive in 🧵👇:

Start with the video below first.

2/23 Good, now that you have watched the video I want to remind everyone that "The Dollar Milkshake Theory" is a THEORY not a certainty that those events will happen and that all #USD scenarios will play out.

Same thing for my TA breakdown, so take it with a grain of salt.
3/23 So everyone has a clear understanding of the #DXY , here is a quick explanation below:

The U.S. Dollar Index consists of 6 foreign currencies.:

Euro (EUR), JapaneseYen (JPY), BritishPound (GBP), Canadiandollar (CAD), SwedishKrona (SEK), Swiss Franc (CHF).
Read 23 tweets
Aug 26, 2022
1/6 Busy day today in the markets,

Since I'm the type of trader who guides himself by the Price Action mainly, I prefer the phrase "show me the charts and I'll tell you the news" by Bernand Baruch.

Some thoughts below about #EURUSD #DXY .

CC: @JLinWins @deerpointmacro
2/6 Pre-Powell speech we had some headlines from #ECB officials signaling a potential 75bps rate hike due to #inflation and problems in the #EURO zone.
This caused $EURUSD to tap the supply area and perform a beautiful liquidity grab before resuming the current trend. Image
3/6 After losing the 1.00 / parity area, $EURUSD buyers must defend the $0.995 level. If we see that level taken out on a daily closing basis the target for this "bearish flag" pattern is $0.96 area, a -3.46% give or take.
Read 7 tweets
Aug 11, 2022
1/8 GM everyone,

Time for some trade brake down as one of the people in the comments was confused on why the SL was moved into profit.

Q: why move the SL to profit, nothing changed.
A: The whole regime of the trade changed once is in profit.
2/8 Q: OK but moving the SL in profit you don't have same RR.
A: Let's extrapolate, from 500 trades if I manage to have SL in profit for 400 of them & 100 closed on usual SL with RR 1/2.5 you think is a good ratio?
This is my "edge" & I'll capitalize on it while minimizing loses
3/8 What happened with the initial $BNB short:
After the trade went ITM (in the money) I placed the StopLoss in profit and on yesterday's better than expected #CPI print it was closed.
I almost never trade on high volatility news, so I waited for the dust to settle.
Read 8 tweets
Mar 22, 2022
#analysis #DXY #Bitcoin #EGLD #SP500

1/12 Hello everyone,

Waited for the dust to settle after FED Chair Powell speech. SP500 had an intraday decline of 1.25% when J.Powell said that they will use 50bps rate hike starting May if needed.
2/12 The effects were minimal and the traders bought back late into the session managing to put SP500 only on a -0.25% day. This continuation of the trend after the breakout from the channel, enforces the idea that a current bottom in stock might be in.
3/12 Don't know about others, but I wouldn't want to short this monster weekly candle. Although Bitcoin is lagging and didn't caught up with SP500, this doesn't come as any surprise because the 42k area is a major resistance + turning point since January 2021.
Read 12 tweets
Mar 19, 2022
#analysis #DXY #Bitcoin #EGLD # SP500

1/13 Hello everyone,

As discussed here:

The DXY continued its move lower, broke the Neckline from the DoubleTop pattern but bounced from 97.710 area and failed to print a new LowerLow. Image
2/13 DXY had a strong rejection from the 99.2 area and closed the week red. The "Double Top" is an extremely bearish technical reversal pattern that forms after an asset reaches a high price two consecutive times with a moderate decline between the two highs.
3/13 We didn't have the last confirmation from the Price Action, meaning that the price went under the Neckline, but failed to close daily under it. The bounce was decent on lower timeframe, so I'm really curious to see if the DXY will continue lower and the reversal next week.
Read 14 tweets

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