Thread by @luxification1

🧵 #RUSSIA, OR #PUTIN?
In the West we have an effort of understanding to make

"Obviously, you can’t abstractly accuse an entire nation," says DG of the Estonian Internal Security Service, Arnold Sinisalu. "But a society and a nation constitute a whole.
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The state may brainwash, but the germ of chauvinism still springs from the people itself."

That is precisely how Baltic counterintelligence officers refer to Russia – not ‘it’, but ‘they’. The war in Ukraine is not Putin’s war. The cruelty is not Putin’s. The rapes, murders...
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gouged eyes, hangings, and burned corpses aren’t special tactics employed by Russia’s leader. It is Russia as a whole.

"The majority of Russians are to blame," says Sinisalu.
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Western colleagues sometimes have a hard time believing this.

"They’re certainly more naïve and optimistic than we are," says one #Baltic counterintelligence officer.

Denial. Dismissal. Reducing everything to #Putin and his closest circle
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because one shouldn’t pigeonhole all #Russians or believe there exist common national characteristics.

"Our understanding has been the polar opposite of the West’s."
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We coinhabit the world with a country whose citizenry primarily adheres to a code of force. The war in #Ukraine was not a surprise, but rather a logical progression. And at some point, it will repeat again.
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Officers of the Baltic security services do not describe Russia’s imperialism and brutality as a military tactic, but a rampant social norm.

...The Nazis temporarily rose to the top of the cruelty ranking during WW2, which has caused people to forget #Russia’s atrocities.
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"They’ve never been held accountable, “Sinisalu says. "And that has made them feel invincible."
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"I thought they’d go right back to their old rhetoric, but the past manifesting anew in a cruder and more robust way was unexpected."

Deportations. Rapes. Alleged struggles with hostile elements, but actual executions of children.
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"Our assessments of Russia haven’t changed in the last 30 years." The chief analysis is this: Russia wishes to regain its status as an empire by any means.

"It’s a conqueror’s mindset. Everyone around them are enemies."
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"To them, there are no states, only zones and territories. Russia sees itself as being surrounded by vassals and ancillaries – there is no third option."
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"They come off as children who have been wronged and are now seeking revenge."

This conqueror’s mentality is no mere Soviet remnant, but extends far deeper.
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Violence is a historical pattern in Russia, and that will not change. Human life has no value there

The massacre in Bucha wasn’t unique, but a repetition of Katyn. The detonation of the Olenivka prison was a copy of the explosion in Sambir, which killed 1,200 female prisoners
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Nothing has come as a surprise for anyone familiar with #Ukrainian history, as Ukraine isn’t simply Ukraine – it is also #Estonia, #Latvia, and #Lithuania in the 1940s.
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"For #Russia, both sides winning equals a loss," remarks an Estonian entrepreneur who has organized complex business transactions with Russians for decades. "They need for there to always be winners and losers, even when negotiating." And only they may come out on top.
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"I don’t want to think so primitively; to believe such evil could truly exist in #Russian society," Peeter tells me. "I’d like to believe something nobler. But it’s simply the truth."
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"It’d be overly simplistic to attribute the #Russian mentality to propaganda.

"Imperialism, chauvinism, brutality – they’re a part of Russian education, upbringing, and culture, but are also part of their values. And it’s been that way for centuries."
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Jauniškis, nor any other Baltic counterintelligence officer who is interviewed, believes it can change.
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Just recently, Estonian Ambassador to Ukraine Kaimo Kuusk stood at the edge of the mass graves and visited the former torture chambers in Izum. He was told that the Russian torturers weren’t yokels, but spoke in elegant urban St. Petersburg or Moscow accents.
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Russia’s total defeat in Ukraine is the sole opportunity for change.

"At the moment, I can’t think of any force that could spread democratic values in Russia," says Jauniškis. "They demand the respect of every other country and exact it through brutal compulsion."
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People still refer to "Putin’s war". They emphasise that "ordinary Russians" should not be persecuted. They assert that we must remain humanist and understanding, for otherwise we would not be European.
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Many are prepared to allow Putin to save face, no matter that the cost is Ukrainian bodies with nooses tied around their necks and their faces removed.

Suggestions that Russia should avoid humiliation are "a stupid thing to say."
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Being well-versed in history, Jauniškis knows all too well: revolutions only happen in Russia after a war is lost.

"One day, Russians will wake up and realize what they’ve done," Jauniškis asserts. "And their guilt will be excruciating."
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(Article quoted from below. To paraphrase, 1 Baltic Russian expert is worth 10 Western Russian experts.)

Russia or Putin?

Always Russia.

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