Thread by @Jihad_Analytics

[THREAD] 1/ In 2022, the Islamic State claimed 2,028 attacks in 24 countries. It carried out large-scale operations in Syria, Nigeria and Afghanistan. Sharp decline in #IS operations in Iraq. Africa was the continent most afflicted, with a sharp increase in attacks at Christians.

2/ Detail about the methodology: I have analysed all the information provided by the Islamic State in the 52 issues of its weekly magazine al-Naba’ (cf. the front page of the issue 369). For every single IS claimed attack, I have analysed the target(s)/weapon(s) used/geolocation.

3/To start with, interestingly, the number of Islamic State’s attacks has dropped consistently since the fall of Baghûz (March 2019), last #IS stronghold in Syria. This is particularly striking in the case of #Syria and #Iraq, where the group is a mere shadow of what it once was.

4/ Over the past year, #Africa was a focus in IS magazine al-Naba’. In 40 out of 52 issues, #ISWAP (Nigeria-Cameroon) and #ISCAP (DRC) made the headlines. IS-Iraq was on the front page only once, which confirms that it has not conducted any significant operation in the country.

5/ IS-Iraq was the top province in 2022, followed closely by #ISWAP that expanded its operations to new States in Nigeria. Fratricidal fighting between IS and #JNIM in the Sahel. First IS attack in Iran in four years, and in Israel in five years. First claimed operation in Benin.

6/ In 2022, the Islamic State claimed 39 military operations per week on average. Peak in the group’s attacks in Iraq, Syria and Nigeria in April, during the holy month of #Ramadan. Significant increase in Egypt in #IS claimed operations in August during the Galabana campaign.

7/ Last year saw an upsurge in attacks against Christians in #Africa, namely in Nigeria, Mozambique and DRC. In two separate videos, ISCAP and IS in Mozambique fighters also threatened Christians, and they published numerous photosets of churches burning throughout the year 2022.

8/ In 2022, the Islamic State claimed four attacks at prisons in DRC, Syria and Nigeria. #IS spokesman devoted a quarter of his latest speech to highlight these prison breaks. Attacks in Syria were conducted to revenge the IS men/women held in al-Hol camp.

9/ Even if the Islamic State tends to overstate the number of casualties, it is worth noting that, while #IS remained the most active in Iraq, its attacks proportionally caused much more casualties in Mali, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nigeria and Syria in 2022.

10/ Key findings:

• The Islamic State claimed 2,028 attacks in 24 countries in 2022, a decrease from the previous year.
• Sharp drop in Iraq.
• Africa was the most afflicted continent, with a significant increase in attacks at Christians.
• High focus on prison(er)s.

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