1. While #California numbers aren’t entirely in, let’s take a dive into Super Tuesday in terms of the strategies we employed at @DemsWork4USA and what the primary results mean for November.
2. We’re extremely proud of the results in #NewMexico and #Iowa where all our endorsed candidates won. We don’t always feature state legislature seats as with IA, but do so when we have strong candidates than will both build the bench and drive momentum at the top of the ticket.
3. In #NewJersey we won all but 1 of our endorsements. We realized that Tanzie Youngblood would not likely take the nomination, but she is well positioned for seeking a state legislative seat in the special election and bringing Jeff Van Drew along to a more progressive appeal.
4. As our focus is winnability in November, our endorsements are necessarily strategic. We’re not prognosticating or forecasting winners - we’re strategically giving support that’s critical to flipping or retaining key seats.
5. I have seen more than one pundit or journalist say today that the fear of a top-two shutout was overblown in #California. This isn’t accurate. We avoided this scenario with a combined strategic effort on the part of grassroots organizations and the national party.
6. We avoided shutouts in the most vulnerable districts. #CA48 took a great deal of orchestrated effort. An anti-Baugh and pro-Rouda approach was absolutely necessary to get there. Given oppo on Keirstead, we would still like to see Rouda take the nomination.
7. #CA49 Dems owe their thanks to @SaraJacobsCA for avoiding a shutout. Sara was able to pull votes from Harkey as well as Chavez, despite lacking in the visibility that Levin and Applegate had. We outlined this scenario here demwritepress.com/2018/04/08/nav…
8. Incidentally, we supported Applegate in 2016 and supported Levin until it became clear that support of Jacobs would be absolutely necessary to avoid a shutout. We truly hope Sara Jacobs considers running for a state legislature seat and continues her political career.
9. After primaries, new analysis of races is necessary. Unfortunately, there are a couple of seats in CA that will now be off the table. For #CA04 to be in play, Regina Bateson needed to win. All Dem votes combined aren’t enough to thwart McClintock - IND moderates were needed.
10. Likewise, #CA50 is also off the table. While Ammar Campa-Najjar clearly had momentum, this is a district that has repeatedly gone for vets. Butner would‘ve had a chance against Hunter, but there aren’t enough Dem votes to win for Ammar. Especially with 7% of Dems voting GOP.
11. There are some uphill battles. We all want to see Nunes go. #CA22 will require a lot of targeted grassroots support. And this one has to be about Trump-Russia - for obvious reasons. Janz path to victory is narrow - we will need all hands on deck.
12. We won’t get the total numbers on voter turnout in California for awhile. More analysis will be coming. Overall, Dem turnout was better than traditional numbers. This is good, but it MUST increase.
13. As an organization, we strive to work collaboratively with other grassroots groups to achieve the goal of flipping Congress. That is the goal. That is the only path out of this mess. And it requires strategy - this is chess, not checkers.
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