X : Have you read the Chequers whitepaper?
Me : Yes, a couple of times.
X : It is bad?
Me : No. It's mostly ok. There are a couple of tweaks needed i.e. a few show stoppers on binding vs ratification.
X : Is that what the amendments were about?
Me : No.
X : What's going on?
Me : Yes, a couple of times.
X : It is bad?
Me : No. It's mostly ok. There are a couple of tweaks needed i.e. a few show stoppers on binding vs ratification.
X : Is that what the amendments were about?
Me : No.
X : What's going on?
... a fight has been brewing for some time, ultimatums have been thrown around, tensions building etc. It's quite amusing.
X : Isn't there a danger of "no deal"?
Me : I'm the wrong person to ask. I don't see "no deal" as being the cliff edge that many propose. Of course, a compromise is acceptable. Chequers, as is, isn't that ... it has some show stoppers that need fixing but there is time.
Me : I'm the wrong person to ask. I don't see "no deal" as being the cliff edge that many propose. Of course, a compromise is acceptable. Chequers, as is, isn't that ... it has some show stoppers that need fixing but there is time.
X : How about reversing article 50?
Me : Tricky. You'd need the mandate, to negotiate a multilateral withdraw etc. There are political reasons for this (i.e. statecraft) but there are also consequences, it runs certain risks especially in terms of the psychology of the nation.
Me : Tricky. You'd need the mandate, to negotiate a multilateral withdraw etc. There are political reasons for this (i.e. statecraft) but there are also consequences, it runs certain risks especially in terms of the psychology of the nation.
X : How do you mean?
Me : Uncertainty is one thing to manage (everyone in business likes to grumble about it because they're mostly hopeless at managing it) but confidence is a different beast. If you lose that, at a nation state level, you can cause incredible damage.
Me : Uncertainty is one thing to manage (everyone in business likes to grumble about it because they're mostly hopeless at managing it) but confidence is a different beast. If you lose that, at a nation state level, you can cause incredible damage.
... I am less concerned about "no deal" because there are ways to manage the uncertainty than I am about reversing article 50. I do understand why people might want this (both personal and political) but social systems are really complex things. I have concerns.
X : We should just overturn article 50 and return to the status quo.
Me : Ok, how do I put this? We can't. It's to do with the nature of complex systems. The equilibrium won't be the same despite our attempts to believe that we can make it so in a rules based system ...
Me : Ok, how do I put this? We can't. It's to do with the nature of complex systems. The equilibrium won't be the same despite our attempts to believe that we can make it so in a rules based system ...
... I suppose that's my way of saying, I don't agree.
X : Prove it.
Me : Gosh, the problem with complex systems is ... I can't. I can just run lots of scenarios, some with good outcomes, some with not so good.
X : Prove it.
Me : Gosh, the problem with complex systems is ... I can't. I can just run lots of scenarios, some with good outcomes, some with not so good.
