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Steve Kornacki @SteveKornacki
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
I think this is worth briefly interrupting my vacation for (especially since I’m in OH-12..)

OH-12 special election poll (Monmouth)
Danny O’Connor (D) 43%
Troy Balderson (R) 44%

monmouth.edu/polling-instit…
Given everything we’ve seen in special elections so far, the surprise really would have been if OH-12 didn’t end up a barnburner.

On average, in D vs. R House specials, Dems have improved on the Trump/Clinton margin by 10.5 points. In OH-12, Trump beat Clinton by 11.
Anyway please enjoy some random pictures I’ve taken in the OH-12 area. Nice place!
instagram.com/p/Bl8TjybH5qJ/
instagram.com/p/Bl6ZhPynZnO/
instagram.com/p/Bl51tsSHK8F/
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I’ve wanted to say something about the “likability” conversation I’ve been seeing on here and it comes from spending so much time the last few years reliving old presidential campaigns for research:
I do think it’s worth remembering that perceptions of “likability,” as defined by the media/political world, have played a *major* role in the coverage of more than one modern presidential race, predating Hillary Clinton.
I am thinking in particular (but not exclusively) of the 2000 campaign, during which news coverage was frequently and heavily influenced by the supposed “likability” gap between Al Gore and George W. Bush. Here is a tiny taste that took me like 8 minutes to dig up:
Read 7 tweets
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The Florida fiasco of 2000 led to a bipartisan push for election reform -- for another Florida to never happen again. This became the Help America Vote Act, which Congress passed overwhelmingly (357-48 in the House; 92-2 in the Senate) and George W. Bush signed in Oct. 2002:
HAVA mandated the creation of the Election Assistance Commission (EAC), which would conduct studies and advise states on what to do (and not to do) in administering elections. The idea was to come up with a standardized procedure for federal elections.
The EAC's studies then found was that contests placed on ballots under long columns of instruction were “often overlooked” by voters – causing them not to vote in that race. So the EAC urged states to *never* do this with their ballots:
Read 7 tweets
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18 years ago, Pat Buchanan received 3,411 in heavily Democratic Palm Beach County - more than triple the number he got from any other Florida county - an anomaly related to the county's ballot design:
Even Buchanan said most of those votes were likely intended for Al Gore, who ended up losing Florida -- and the presidency -- by an official margin of 537 votes.
(Ironically, when Buchanan bolted the GOP to run as a Reform Party candidate -- against Donald Trump initially! -- the Bush campaign feared he would end up siphoning votes from them and helping Gore win the presidency.)
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Interesting POV. What happened in Ohio 12 last night, even w/o the W, was critically important for us. Now, we evaluate it. #WednesdayWisdom
wapo.st/2ORF2lv?tid=ss…
2/"A number of analyses of the Ohio special election results — including the one offered by your humble blogger earlier today — focused on the outsize energy in the suburbs of Columbus, where Democrat Danny O’Connor ran up large vote totals, something that bodes well for
3/"Democratic chances this fall. But it’s also worth taking a quick look at how O’Connor performed in some of the rural, exurban counties, because that sheds a bit of light on an argument that has simmered among Democrats over how to win back working-class whites. Largely because
Read 17 tweets
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1. President Trump celebrated the result of Ohio’s special election Tuesday night after Republican Troy Balderson squeaked out a win* against Democrat Danny O’Connor.
2. But given the 12th congressional district comprises rural and suburban communities around Columbus, and given the president won it by double digits in 2016, the result of last night’s contest might be less important than what is portends.
3. To be sure, a win is a win. Something similar might happen in November. Despite evidence suggesting Democratic victories, Republicans could still win by a nose. But Tuesday was one of many elections since 2016.
Read 25 tweets
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📢#RETWEET 📢
THANK YOU President @Realdonaldtrump

pscp.tv/w/bjY8dDF6WUVi…
📢#RETWEET 📢
🚨OHIO Special ELECTION🚨

Tuesday August 7th
✅Vote #OH12 @Troy_balderson

Defeat Nancy pelosi by voting for Troy Balderson for Ohio 12th District (Columbus Area)

✅Pro Constitution
✅Pro Border security
✅Pro 2nd Amendment
✅Pro bring JOBS back to OHIO
#VoteOhio
📢#RETWEET 📢
🚨OHIO Special Election🚨

Vote Tuesday August 7th
@realDonaldTrump Endorses Troy Balderson for #OH12

✅Vote @Troy_Balderson Ohio 12th District (Columbus area)

#VoteOhio
#MondayMotivation
Read 3 tweets
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🇺🇸SPECIAL ELECTION #Ohio #Ohiogov #Ohiopol #OH12 #TakeItBack

🇺🇸 7th August

This is yet another deep red district R+7 , but again the Democrats are out performing. Well @dannyoconnor1 is. #dannyOConnor

dannyoconnorforcongress.com
For Signs Of A #BlueWave, Everyone's Watching Ohio's 12th District . Ohio’s 12th Congressional District special election next month is being closely watched around the country,not just for what it says about Ohio, but for what it might mean for midterms around the country.
It’s been solidly red for 40 years now, but there are signs the Democrat running to replace Tiberi in the special August election has a fantastic shot of winning. #TakeItBack
dannyoconnorforcongress.com/about/
Read 11 tweets
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Hey #Ohio
Who are the Democratic Candidates in your District?
This is a THREAD of All Democratic Candidates with their websites #PRIMARIES
VOTE MAY 8, 2018
Register by April 9, 2018 here: olvr.sos.state.oh.us
Find Polling Place here: sos.state.oh.us/elections/vote…
#Midterms2018
#OH #Primaries VOTE MAY 8, 2018
Absentee Ballot Request by May 5, 2018
Back by May 8, 2018
Request here: sos.state.oh.us/secretary-hust…
Info sos.state.oh.us/publications/o…
Early Voting starts April 10 (Military Overseas, Starts March 24)
By mail begins April 11
Track sos.state.oh.us/elections/vote…
Voter Registration in Ohio
Online here olvr.sos.state.oh.us
Or Print out here sos.state.oh.us/globalassets/e…
And mail to County Board of Elections, Addresses here:
sos.state.oh.us/elections/elec…
Wonder if you're still registered? Purged perhaps?
KEEP checking here: sos.state.oh.us/elections/vote…
Read 30 tweets
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1) Some positive news for @realDonaldTrump in new Monmouth University poll:

monmouth.edu/polling-instit… …

PDJT approval rating numbers heading in the right direction for him - up to 42% (from a low of 32% last month). Best mark since March 2017.
2) Better news for @realDonaldTrump: 55%, say PDJT has been successful in getting Congress to pass his legislative agenda (up from 42% last month).

71% say PDJT’s agenda so far has focused on issues important to average Americans at least a little — that’s up from 63% in July.
3) Tax bill approval rating improving, too: 44% approve, 44% disapprove in new poll, HUGE improvement from December when it was 26% approve, 47% disapprove.
Read 5 tweets

Trending hashtags

#AlexandraBenalla #OH #GurbirGrewal #OH15 #Lejada #SundayMorning #Bootkoski #MacronLeaks #PadreMeño #LasVíctimasImportan #Bergoglio #handmarked #LesBarbouzesDeLElysée #arabes #AlainGibelin #YouTube #dysfonctionnements #Brooklyn #Bransfield #elPapaEncubre #Ratzinger #HiFelicia #NuevaYork #TX #JeanLucFugit

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