Thread by @s_navroop

Have been saying 2019 is all about caste & social alliances and BJP knows this really knowing that Vikas alone & even Hindutva wont add up to wave of 2014 & it needs to blunt the opposition unity & social demographics which has the potential to reduce's BJP's majority in 2019.

Thus BJP knowing this well, crafted a master plan to shore up its numbers. The master plan is #Mandal2 ! It has two components 1) NCBC as Constitutional Body & 2) Commission on Subcategorization of OBCs in states & UTs. So let us see how this works.

NCBC has now be given Constitutional Body status unlike earlier when it was only a Statutory Body under NCBC Act of 1993. NCBC 123rd Const Amendment Bill was passed by Lok Sabha on 02nd August 2018 having been already passed by Rajya Sabha. The bill now go to President's Desk

123 Const Amendment Bill states has many features but most important is insertion of Article 342A in Const whose Sub Clause (1) states Prez after consulting Guv of State or UT may by notification specify SEBCs for the specific state & UTs

This means under new Constitutional Arrangement, State Govt can make recommendations to Center i.e. Guv to Prez who can in turn issue a Public Notification to designate a particular caste as SEBC in that particular state or UTs.

However smartness is depicted in Clause (2) of new Art 342(A) which says Parliament may by law include or exclude any SEBC as so notified in Sub Clause (1) by President, however there is a saving clause that subsequent notification can not vary earlier notification.

Thus meaning, if Prez notifies a Caste as SEBC after Consultation with Guv then, Parliament 'MAY' (not shall) include or exclude any caste by Law thou any further notification can not undo the notification by Prez issued in Clause (1).

Its like killing many birds with one stone:

taking Power from States to Center in matter of SEBCs;

President Notification cannot be varied by any subsequent notification

Parliament can legislate to include or exclude castes in SEBC list but i guess no opposition can oppose it

Also govt quietly puts onus on the Parliament to exclude or include Caste if so desires thus blunting Opposition's caste agitations as they will now be party to any decision.

Also Prez (Union shall determines rules for Appointment, Removal, Service or tenure of its Members)

Additionally Union & State shall consult NCBC (a const body) on major policy decisions. It is mandatory to consult but its advice is not binding but can at best be reccomendatory in nature. Thus Union thru President become all pervasive in new scheme. Master Class Drafting IMO 😉

Now 2nd move is establisment of Commission headed by Justice G Rohini to look into sub categorization of OBCs in States & UTs under Art 340 of the Constitution. Commission is mandated to divide Castes in 3 Categories. Catg A - EBC, Catg B - MBCs & Backward Classes in Catg ‘C’.

The Commission is due to submit the report in September 2018, thereby recommendig various sub categorization of castes. It will set the ball rolling for recommendations by state govt's for inclusion of Marathas, Jats, Patels & Kapus in SEBCs.

Now under the new Constitutional Amendment as passed, State Reccomendations thru Gov can be notified by President under new Art 342 A(1) thus flood gates for reservation demands from dominant castes such as Marathas, Jats, Patels & even Kapus in AP.

Though not necessary otherwise but Parliament may have to legislate once the Notificafions issued by Pres under Art 342(1) to get over the objection of 50% rule of SC since 1993. Central Govt (BJP) cud swiftly approve these demands and put it for Parl approval.

Once it is put for Parl Approval the BJP wins in either case coz no one can afford reject demands for reservations by Dominant Castes given the politics of it & even if by some way it is rejected the Notification under Art 342A(1) still stands due to savings clause in Part 2 !

Both moves combined together are signature of astute political thinking by the BJP to shore up votes in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Haryana & Western UP & even targetting AP with new SEBCs law & sub categorization commission. They secure these states & they would be safely home.

Legally & politically very smart moves by Central Govt. This is the Master Plan of #Mandal2 aimed to kill many birds with one stone and win 2019 while checkmating the opposition stratergy of social fragmentation. They know Vikas may not be enough & Hindutva may not give returns.

Whether this Brahmastra of #Mandal2 succeds or not remains to be seen. Not giving a value judgement on this but simply stating the shrewd stratergy by Central Govt i.e. BJP to counter opposition's moves & shore its numbers for 2019. Now lets wait & see how it pans out.

And to put it frankly #Mandal2 is one part stratergy, the other will tactical alliances, seat sharing, candidates, welfare schemes & doleouts and host of other factors that wud determine the result of 2019. Caste wont be the sole factor but it wud be a dominant factor.

Addendum: 123rd Constitutional Amendment Bill is listed in Rajya Sabha today for passing after Lok Sabha made some amendments which need concurrence of upper house. Given its about NCBC & OBCs this shld sail thru.

Also Govt accepting suggestion & demands to raise creamy layer cut off from 6 to 8 Lacs annual income.

123rd Constititional Amendment Bill 2017 as amended by LS is now passed by Rajya Sabha establishing NCBC as Constitutional Body. New reservation demands can now be accorded as explained above in the thread. Thus road clear for Maratha, Jats & Patel reservations 😉

With Justice Rohini Commission coming out with sub categorization of OBC based on Quantifiable data it wud be easy for Govt to get a law in Parl, place it in 9th schedule & get it sustained before SC in case of challenge on basis of findings of Rohini Commission under Art 340.