Today 4/5 guys are calling a market Bottom. #Nifty
They must be really smart if that happens.
Now at 11375 .... #Nifty .. 5/5 guys are saying Nifty bottom done.
Now at 11275 again... 5/5 guys are silent about their LONGs.. #NIFTY
(75min chart of Nifty attached)
3/5 guys now says Selling is almost over. We must see a strong rebound (looking at US and Nikkie rally yesterday). #BearTrap scenario.
Expiry should be between 11400-11500. #Nifty
Today @ close.. 5/5 guys were silent. But @ 5pm after looking at USDINR and India's 10 year Bond yield.. They say "Now the bottom done for Nifty.... finally!!!! ".
Note:
USDINR at 15:30pm - 72.84, at 17:00pm - 72.38
10yr Yield at 15:30pm - 8.13%, at 17:00pm - 8.07%
Nifty: 11234
4/5 guys say the Rising GAP will not be filled. Hold long view.
#NIFTY : The analog of 2014 is matching with 2019
Observation: Post ELECTION result, market did not see any directional trend for next 10 days in 2014.
4th Higher High formation
No weakness in volume to assist divergence
20Day ATR now 250pts (ATR falling means low volatile zone in an Uptrend which is bread butter for Trend Followers)
My view: Bullish as there is no sign of weakness yet.
Earlier I explained how to make charts cleaner by using Two day Swing Lines & today I explained how to identify Relative Highs & Relative Lows in an objective manner
Link1:
A thread on how to Define correct Swing Highs / Lows for the purpose of Dow Theory analysis or drawing Trendlines:
Thomas DeMark in his book "The New Science of Technical Analysis" said that drawing
of trend lines is a highly arbitrary process. 1/n
A trend line is typically intended to connect
several Relative Highs or Relative lows. If there are two or more such points, the trend line can be drawn
precisely. (notes from Jack Schwager's book "The Complete Guide to the Futures Market").. 2/n
Relative high is a High that is higher than high on the N prior & N succeeding bars.
where N is a number of bars (can be anything as per individual's setup 5 / 10 / 20...)
if N = 5, Relative High is Current High > last 5 days & succeeding 5 days. Viceversa for Relative Low.. 3/n
Further to my initiative of #LetsLearn where my objective is to de-code complex things & make things simple and available for analysis...
Today, I will try to make a complex looking chart into a clean & simple one (only useful for people who are PATTERN based trader/analyst)..1/n
Further as disclaimer, the presented way will be more useful for people who have followed Martin Pring's book on chart patterns.. (images taken from Kindle version of the book)
The below are Candlestick charts of #NIFTY50.. a lot of times market moves inside a range throwing multiple Bullish/Bearish candlestick patterns and adds up the clutter in analysis (Pro Candlestick / Bar / short term traders wont have a problem) but for others it is a confusion..