Some better Senate polling for Democrats over the last couple days. Although tbh they're in a pretty deep hole so it's going to take a lot of good polling to pull them out of it. 53eig.ht/2AgTrT6
Pretty good House polls for Democrats over the last day or two, also. Although, I'd say good relative to the conventional wisdom more than relative to our model's expectations.
e.g. We've had VA-5 as a tossup all the way through. Quirky district, fairly Republican lately, but our model shows it as swingy/elastic and the GOP candidate is problematic and has been outraised 3:1. That adds up to a coin-flippy race and that's what the NYT/Siena poll shows.
In terms of the House big picture, we're not far removed from the conventional wisdom, so I won't pick a big fight. But as a quibble, the CW feels stale by 7-10 days. You could squint and see some movement toward the GOP then. Harder to make that case based on most recent data.
p.s. "Things aren't getting better for the GOP in the House" doesn't mean they can't win. I'd consider any election where your chances are >=5% to be "competitive". And the GOP's chances are a lot higher than that, between 15-25% depending on which version of our model you use.
p.s. As we near Election Day, I'd encourage you to look at all 3 versions of our model. Classic is our default and, we think, the best way to narrate the race. But Lite gives you a polls-only view. And Deluxe, which incorporates expert ratings, is what I'd use to bet my own $.
