Thread by @MikeOtsuka

🚨🚨🚨#USS contradicts itself in its latest attempt to answer the critique arising from @Sam_Marsh101's findings regarding expected asset level 20 years hence. See the following highlighted passage from p. 12 of the consultation document on the 2018 valuation: 1/

This parenthetical claim is an attempt to deny that they ever assumed that col 1 row 1 would equal col 2 row 1 in @Sam_Marsh101 graph below. 2/

But the record shows that #USS previously identified the target path as the expected path. See this highlighted statement from the transcript of @GuyCoughlan's video of May 2018: 3/

"...when we add in future expected returns, plus future contributions..." That is the EXPECTED PATH that #USS now denies that Test 1 targets. 4/

See this slide 👇 which accompanies the words of @GuyCoughlan from the transcript of the video that I quote above. 5/

The slide makes clear that "future expected returns, plus future contributions" refer to the blue bands of the left-hand "Assets" column. Those two bands on top of "Investments" in the Assets column together comprise the figure in column ONE of row 1. 6/

It is also clear from the graph that #USS assumed that columns 1 & 2 of row 1 would be equal, since the red "Technical Provisions" bar, which corresponds to column 2 of row 1, is set at the same height as the 3 elements that together make up column 1 of row 1. 7/

We see, however, from @Sam_Marsh101's chart in 2/ above that column 1 is MUCH GREATER THAN column 2 of row 1. 8/

So #USS has been caught red-handed rewriting their Test 1 asset target in an attempt to defend themselves against the claim that they made the "large and demonstrable mistake" that I discuss in this blog post. 9/
medium.com/@mikeotsuka/te…

I hope Academics for Pensions Justice @ForPension and their solicitor @GordonDadds and barrister @wilberforcech take this evidence into account. 10/

Here is a link to @GuyCoughlan's video and the transcript. It's the one called "A technical overview of the 2017 valuation". See minutes 25-27 for a discussion of Test 1 and the slide I discuss above. 11/11
uss.co.uk/how-uss-is-run…

👆@USSEmployers @ucu @AlistairJarvis @JoanneSegars @SallyBridgeland @Sam_Marsh101 @Flibitygibity @carlomorelliUCU @HershMarion @Dennis_Leech @DaveGuppy @UofGVC @adamtickell @RedActuary @Derek_Benstead @kevinwesbroom @GuyCoughlan @USSbriefs @JosephineCumbo @Wonkhe @stianwestlake