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Michael Otsuka
@MikeOtsuka
, 9 tweets, 8 min read Read on Twitter
Regarding this👇by @Sam_Marsh101. 1/
And this👇. 2/
If they investigate the details, it will become manifestly clear to the #USS trustee that their executives have failed to provide an adequate response to the critique of "large and demonstrable mistake" over Test 1 arising from @Sam_Marsh101's asset projections. 3/
It will also become clear that the case of their executives for a reliance (aka self-sufficiency deficit) trigger of higher contributions also collapses in the light of their mistake. 4/
This blog post 👇documents the inadequacy of #USS's October response to the claim that they made a "large and demonstrable mistake". 5/
medium.com/@mikeotsuka/te…
This blog post 👇documents the inadequacy of #USS's subsequent November response to the claim that they made a "large and demonstrable mistake". 6/
medium.com/@mikeotsuka/th…
Finally, this blog post 👇demonstrates that the #USS executive's case for a reliance trigger collapses in the light of their failure to account for their "large and demonstrable mistake" over Test 1. 7/
medium.com/@mikeotsuka/wh…
👆Regarding the untenability of your #USS executive's case for a reliance trigger, don't simply take my word for it. Please also consult those with the relevant actuarial expertise -- e.g., those who provide advice for UUK & UCU. 8/8
👆@USSEmployers @ucu @AlistairJarvis @JoanneSegars @SallyBridgeland @Sam_Marsh101 @Flibitygibity @carlomorelliUCU @HershMarion @Dennis_Leech @DaveGuppy @UofGVC @adamtickell @RedActuary @Derek_Benstead @kevinwesbroom @GuyCoughlan @USSbriefs @JosephineCumbo @Wonkhe @BrinleyDavies
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More from @MikeOtsuka see all

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Michael Otsuka
@MikeOtsuka
I hope @USSEmployers & scheme members take a few moments to read this interview👇w/ Paul Myners in @TheActuaryMag, whose URL appropriately includes the words "interview-challenging-convention". Comments below. 1/
theactuary.com/features/2019/…
Given his long career in the City👇, including as CEO & Chair of Gartmore pension fund manager, Myners is not someone whose views #USS executives can dismiss as that of an uninformed, radical academic recently turned pensions expert. 2/
In addition to serving as City of London minister under Gordon Brown, Myners was the author of the influential Myners Report 👇 on pensions fund & other institutional investment. 3/
fnlondon.com/articles/the-m…
Read 22 tweets
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Michael Otsuka
@MikeOtsuka
The current @ucu ballot for NEC members, Vice President & other officers is very important. It will determine the balance of power of a divided union & the direction it takes over a number of issues. I'll focus on one issue in tweets below. 1/
In April, on a record turnout of 63.5%, 64% voted to accept the offer to suspend strikes over #USS & set up the Joint Expert Panel. 36% voted to reject that offer. 2/
The JEP issued a magnificent, unanimous report in September which was strongly supportive of the position on the valuation that @ucu & @FirstActuarial have been pressing for years. 3/
Read 7 tweets
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Michael Otsuka
@MikeOtsuka
If USS executives attempt to trigger an automatic rise in contributions in the event of a specified increase in 'reliance' (aka the 'self-sufficiency deficit') during the next three years, the trustee board must intervene and stop them. 1/
This is because the executive's case for such a reliance trigger collapses in the light of their failure to account for their "large and demonstrable mistake" over Test 1. I explain why in this blog 👇. Please retweet! 2/2
medium.com/@mikeotsuka/wh…
👆@USSEmployers @ucu @AlistairJarvis @JoanneSegars @SallyBridgeland @Sam_Marsh101 @Flibitygibity @carlomorelliUCU @HershMarion @Dennis_Leech @DaveGuppy @UofGVC @adamtickell @RedActuary @Derek_Benstead @kevinwesbroom @GuyCoughlan @USSbriefs @JosephineCumbo @Wonkhe @BrinleyDavies
Read 30 tweets

Related threads

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Felicity Callard
@felicitycallard
So: #USS is undertaking a new valuation (of funding position in March 2018). 1/ #USSstrike
Bill Galvin, #USS CEO, implicitly puts onus on #UUK for problems of 2017 valuation, stating that employers had given a "very clear view" to USS to "take less risk than was laid out in its [USS's] original proposals" uss.co.uk/how-uss-is-run… 2/ screen shot of part of document linked to in tweet
There is clearly dispute between #USS and #UUK over this: the #JEP, we should remember, said that it had 'not taken a view' on the differing perspectives of #UUK and #USS over the shift from the Sept to Nov TPs & valuation assumptions ussjep.org.uk/files/2018/09/… 3/ screen shot of p. 45 of document linked to in tweet
Read 10 tweets
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Felicity Callard
@felicitycallard
Wow, new @Firstactuarial report on #USS 2017 valuation is brutal about #USS Trustee: governance of #USS is an ongoing massive question

See section titled "Is the Trustee in control?" (h/t @Sam_Marsh101 @MikeOtsuka for link to report) #USStrike ucu.org.uk/media/9971/Fir… 1/ screen shot from report linked to in tweetscreen shot from report linked to in tweet
I particularly enjoyed the sub-section that ends @RedActuary @Derek_Benstead's report on #USS valuation, titled – get this – "Alternative Facts". The final sentence reads: "So far as we are aware, this statement [by #USS] is untrue". ucu.org.uk/media/9971/Fir… 2/2 screen shot of section of report discussed in tweet
Will Prof Sir David Eastwood, Chair of #USS Board of Trustees, VC of @unibirmingham, respond to @FirstActuarial's grave concerns over whether #USS Trustee is actually in control of #USS valuation? Or will Trustee continue its silence? #USSstrike ucu.org.uk/media/9971/Fir…
Read 9 tweets
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Josephine Cumbo
@JosephineCumbo
UPDATE on 2017 #USS valuation.

Universities UK has told me:
“Employers support the JEP’s recommendations, subject to acceptance from the USS Trustee and The Pensions Regulator, and to further information for employers on risk and its implications.”

1/
#UUK: ”We look forward to discussions with UCU, and with the USS Trustee, over the coming weeks as we seek a jointly agreed solution.”
2/2
#UUK has further clarified that employers support “all of the recommendations put forward by the panel” – subject to the conditions outlined in earlier tweeted statement.
Read 14 tweets
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Nick Hardy
@NJSHardy
After a chat with a colleague, I've decided to try my own simple explanation of the big technical problem with #USS Test 1. Like @etymologic's superb thread, but no maths. I assume Sam Marsh or Mike Otsuka will spot errors (if they're not busy correcting USS's). Wish me luck 😬
What USS SHOULD have said to employers: ‘if we keep our current investments and contribution rate, we'll be in great shape after 20 years. We'll have more than we need, even if we have to start closing the scheme. If we do need more money, it won't be more than you can afford.'
'We need to be careful, and the risks are quite high right now. You might have to pay us a bit more money up front, or we could find other ways to reduce the risks currently facing the scheme. Let's discuss how we'll manage risk in the next 20 years and see what suits you.'
Read 8 tweets
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Felicity Callard
@felicitycallard
Q: If the expert panel cannot reach agreement, what do employers understand will be the fallback position on the valuation?

A: The valuation is the responsibility of the USS Trustee (h/t @JosephineCumbo) 1/
The USS trustee board 'delegates day to day responsibility for the mgmt of the scheme to the group executive' (h/t @CathyJenkins101). The group executive comprises the following uss.co.uk/how-uss-is-run… 2/ screen shot of web link showing list of names in group executive
.@JosephineCumbo has just responded saying: "I have asked #USS what its fallback position is if the panel cannot reach agreement. Am awaiting a response."
Read 10 tweets
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Martin O'Neill
@martin_oneill
Here's a THREAD on the #USS Trustees, powerful individuals whose role has been insufficiently examined, and who have been operating without the full benefits of public scrutiny.

#USSstrikes #USSstrike #WeAreTheUniversity #StrikeForUSS #DemocratiseUSS #DemocratizeUSS

👇👇👇
As the #USS dispute goes on, it's clearer than ever that the institutions that govern our pensions have been failing us in multiple ways. They are secretive, non-transparent, marked by conflicts of interest and revolving doors. We need to open up and #DemocratizeUSS.
Of the 5 “independent” Trustees of #USS, 4 have a background working for investment and financial services companies, the 5th used to work for Rio Tinto, the mining company, running their gold mines in Papua New Guinea.

Let's have a look at them.
👇👇👇
Read 33 tweets

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