1. As lead candidates are gearing up for the #telleurope debate tonight I thought I would do a mini #thread on how I see the @Europarl_EN elections playing out.
2. One of the problems with these elections is that they are seen as 'second-order' elections and attract little public interest. Ever since 1979 the turnout has been decreasing and in 2014 reached record low 43 %.
3. It is unclear if turnout will be higher this time. But there are reasons to believe that this will be the case at least in some MS. According to @PolitykaInsight 38 % voters could go to the polls in PL whereas in 2014 only 24 % voted. UK turnout could also be a bit higher
4. Some have believed that #Spitzenkandidaten process could attract greater public interest in the European politics. I am sceptical. In 2014 only 5 % voters indicated that they went to the polls because they thought they could influence the makeup of the Commission presidency.
5. What certainly does not help is that the EU leaders distance themselves from #Spitzenkandidaten process and question its legitimacy.
6. Yet, I think that these elections could be different from the previous ones. These elections will result in greater #fragmentation of the @Europarl_EN which - in turn- could lead to greater political competition on the EU level.
7. The #EPP and #PES will probably lose the majority in the EP and will struggle to push through EU legislation. They will have to reach out more often to #ALDE and #Greens.
8. But more importantly they will have to be more vocal on what their stance is on certain policies. Today voters have problems with understanding big policy differences between EU's centre right and left. Greater fragmentation will force the mainstream to be bold.
9. What about #populists then? In my view they will poll well but I disagree with those who say that they could paralyse the @Europarl_EN. They would have to create a cohesive block in the European Parliament to constitute a real threat.
10. True, #populists are better at drawing lessons from the past than their mainstream colleagues but there are many policy differences between them (eg. stance on Putin's Russia or the #eurozone future). Will they manage to overcome these differences ? I am doubtful.
11. This has become already a long thread. But I will end with my views on why I think the European elections matter. The @Europarl_EN is the ONLY directly elected institution and co-decides (alongside the Council) on majority of EU dossiers.
12. So, don't buy into populists' narrative that the EU is run by faceless technocrats and cast the #vote. In the light of the challenges that the EU is facing it matters who sits in the @Europarl_EN
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