1. As lead candidates are gearing up for the #telleurope debate tonight I thought I would do a mini #thread on how I see the @Europarl_EN elections playing out.
2. One of the problems with these elections is that they are seen as 'second-order' elections and attract little public interest. Ever since 1979 the turnout has been decreasing and in 2014 reached record low 43 %.
3. It is unclear if turnout will be higher this time. But there are reasons to believe that this will be the case at least in some MS. According to @PolitykaInsight 38 % voters could go to the polls in PL whereas in 2014 only 24 % voted. UK turnout could also be a bit higher
4. Some have believed that #Spitzenkandidaten process could attract greater public interest in the European politics. I am sceptical. In 2014 only 5 % voters indicated that they went to the polls because they thought they could influence the makeup of the Commission presidency.
5. What certainly does not help is that the EU leaders distance themselves from #Spitzenkandidaten process and question its legitimacy.
6. Yet, I think that these elections could be different from the previous ones. These elections will result in greater #fragmentation of the @Europarl_EN which - in turn- could lead to greater political competition on the EU level.
7. The #EPP and #PES will probably lose the majority in the EP and will struggle to push through EU legislation. They will have to reach out more often to #ALDE and #Greens.
8. But more importantly they will have to be more vocal on what their stance is on certain policies. Today voters have problems with understanding big policy differences between EU's centre right and left. Greater fragmentation will force the mainstream to be bold.
9. What about #populists then? In my view they will poll well but I disagree with those who say that they could paralyse the @Europarl_EN. They would have to create a cohesive block in the European Parliament to constitute a real threat.
10. True, #populists are better at drawing lessons from the past than their mainstream colleagues but there are many policy differences between them (eg. stance on Putin's Russia or the #eurozone future). Will they manage to overcome these differences ? I am doubtful.
11. This has become already a long thread. But I will end with my views on why I think the European elections matter. The @Europarl_EN is the ONLY directly elected institution and co-decides (alongside the Council) on majority of EU dossiers.
12. So, don't buy into populists' narrative that the EU is run by faceless technocrats and cast the #vote. In the light of the challenges that the EU is facing it matters who sits in the @Europarl_EN

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More from @AgataGostynska

Sep 24, 2020
1. It has been a while since I did a #thread on #Brexit but as baby Janina is napping I thought I would offer my two cents. The IMB has naturally undermined the trust that the deal can be reached and has a potential of derailing the talks.
2. Whereas the EU is naturally frustrated with UK's move some folks I have talked to think that the deal is still possible... under condition that the IMB is revised respectively.
3. Some of the involved in the talks think that Johnson is believed to prefer a deal from a no-deal scenario but they acknowledge that there are mounting challenges ahead of the negotiators.
Read 15 tweets
Mar 5, 2020
The EU and the UK have finished the first round of their negotiations on the future relationship. So what do we know so far? #thread
1. Each side has delegated around 110-120 people for these negotiations. The EU has drawn from expertise of 22 EC DG, EEAS and the Council SecGen.
2. Although the talks differ from the article 50 negotiations the EU will keep similar negotiating structures. I have written about this here: encompass-europe.com/comment/eu-sti…
Read 16 tweets
Feb 28, 2020
Having read both mandates I can say with full confidence: governance will be one of the most contentious points in #brexit talks. Short #thread
First of all, ‘the coherent structure and overall governance framework’ are already listed in the chapter called ‘purpose of the envisaged relationship’ suggesting that the EU treats this issue v. seriously.
Why is it important for the EU? There are at least 3 reasons: a) an umbrella governance gives the parties greater flexibility to add on new elements to the partnership in the future, b) it helps to avoid the Swiss saga related to dealing with a number of bilateral agreements
Read 4 tweets
Jan 16, 2020
Ten temat pojawia się w zdecydowanej większości dyskusji, w tym w moim ulubionym @Radio_TOK_FM więc pokuszę się o krótki komentarz #thread
@Radio_TOK_FM 2. Rozporządzenie, o którym mowa nie wymaga jednomyślności - jest to tzw. akt towarzyszący, który wypełni ramy WRF o których zdecydują liderzy. ALE...ale...
@Radio_TOK_FM 3. liderzy zdecydowali, że w ramach głównych negocjacji dot. WRF (jednomyslność) zajmą się min. kontrowersyjnym zapisem dot. tzw. odwroconej większości kwalifikowanej według którego KE mogłaby zadecydować o zamrożeniu środków CHYBA, ŻE Rada zdecyduje inaczej.
Read 7 tweets
Dec 12, 2019
I think the commentariat is exaggerating the tensions between the EU member-states in the phase TWO of the #Brexit talks. #thread
1. If Tories win (and if they win big) the Council could agree a negotiating mandate already in February. It is no secret that the Commission has already drafted the negotiating directives.
2. The baseline scenario for the EU will be that Johnson does not want an extension of the transition and hence that both sides have eleven months to strike a future FTA. What the officials and politicians privately think and hope is a totally different matter.
Read 7 tweets
Nov 28, 2019
A #thread on how the EU is preparing for the second phase of the #Brexit negotiations based on my latest bulletin piece. @CER_EU
@CER_EU 1. The latest polls show that Tories might not only emerge as the biggest party after elections but also have a comfortable majority in the Commons. If this is the case the UK will probably leave the EU by the end of January 31st.
@CER_EU 2. As you will know Johnson has argued that 11 months is enough to negotiate a future partnership with the EU. The EU-27 thinks it is a tall order but it is already establishing new negotiating structures to be able to start the talks as soon as possible.
Read 14 tweets

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