Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #eurozone

Most recents (8)

Is the World on the brink of a new #Recession? Apparently it is.

With today's #DowJones Industrial Average fall of 800+ points, the market flashed a warning sign about a possible recession for the first time since 2007. Follows @jchatterleyCNN assessment.
Banks are paying people to borrow money. That’s alarming news for the global #economy.

A must read @washingtonpost article that explains in plain english and in detail the storm/tsunami ahead. washingtonpost.com/business/econo… #recession2019
With Europe's main economic engine - #Germany, fully contracted, the #Eurozone industrial production continues to declined sharply raising tangible fears of a new #recession. #EuropeanUnion #recession2019 dw.com/en/is-germany-…
Read 5 tweets
By the end of 2019, the #Eurozone Benchmark interest rates, i.e. the overnight #EONIA rate and the #EURIBOR family (with maturities from 1 week up to 12 months), will either be replaced or their calculation methodology will be radically reformed.
The benchmark rates calculation methodology is not compliant with the #EU Benchmarks Regulation (BMR), applied from Jan. 1st, 2018, which emerged in the aftermath of the #LIBOR & #EURIBOR market manipulation scandals & the #2008_financial_crisis. bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_… @BIS_org
On September 14th, 2018, the working group on euro risk-free rates (#WG_EuroRFR), set up by the @ECB, the @FSMA_info , @ESMAComms & the @EU_Commission, proposed the ECB’s #€STR as the replacement of #EONIA
bit.ly/2UDzu4L
bit.ly/2OjrSNo
bit.ly/2YNPxeB
Read 12 tweets
For almost two years now, I've been randomly but constantly been drawn into discussions about the benefits of the euro.

The simple fact is that at the macro level, there are basically none. In the firm-level, especially in the SME -level, there are few. But, 1/
The question is, which should weigh more? The larger single-currency financial markets or a floating exchange rate that corresponds to the macroeconomic and political conditions of each country.

I think that answer, undeniably, is that the latter is more important. 2/
This is because global financial markets are very open and developed nowadays. Funding and hedging is widely available.

However, cutting wages and prices in a #recession has proven very difficult as it has been since the end of the 'liberal era' in early 1900's. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Today, @CDU and @CSU - still the most important veto player on #Eurozone reform - published their election manifesto for the EP elections. On EMU, no surprises:
cdu.de/europaprogramm
1/ Lots of nos: No EZ finance minister. No unemployment insurance. No mutualization of debt nor, interestingly, of risks. No more bank bailouts. No tempering with @ecb independence. Interestingly, one explicit no is missing: Deposit insurance is not mentioned.
2/ On reform needs, it's rather slim: ESM should become an EMF, but unclear what that means in practice. Fiscal rules should become less discretionary and there should be a sovereign insolvency mechanism. Sovereign debt should get the same regulatory treatment as other assets.
Read 5 tweets
Today we release our annual @wiiw_news Autumn #Forecast Report, with macroeconomic projections for #CESEE out to 2020. Below, a thread on the highlights 1/13
#Growth still looks quite good for most, notable upgrades this time for #Poland, #Serbia, #Hungary. But downgrades for several #EU members, plus #Turkey, #Macedonia and #Belarus. 2/13
Over the #forecast period we expect best growth performance in #EUCEE and #WesternBalkans, although both will slow by 2020. Outlook for #CIS & #Ukraine weaker. 3/13
Read 14 tweets
🇨🇳 #CHINA Q3 GDP Y/Y: 6.5% V 6.6%E (slowest growth since Q1 2009)
*NBS spokesman Mao Shengyong said that the international situation was bringing “downward pressure” on China.
*Link: bloom.bg/2RVX1ZA
🇫🇷 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 French tire maker Michelin warned of declining sales in Europe and #China in the second half of the year, dragging down shares of its competitors in the U.S. and Europe - Bloomberg
*Statement: bit.ly/2EujhqH
🇺🇸🇨🇳🇪🇺 In a volley of filings, the EU, #China and the U.S. this week escalated disputes over new U.S. metals tariffs, the European response to those levies, and Chinese intellectual property practices - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 634 tweets
#demographics #militaries #economies #currencies
#USA
- Best demographics
- Largest military
- Largest economy
- Most used currency
- Liquid financial markets
- Open capital account
- Rule of law
- Best geography
- Can be self sufficient if required
- Not trade dependent
#USA
Top trade partners as of 30 June 2018:
- China: 15.2% (strategic competitor)
- Canada: 15.1%
- Mexico: 14.6%
- Japan: 5.1%
- Germany: 4.4%

The next 10 years could result in the below:
- Mexico (25%)
- Canada (20%
- Japan (7%)
- South Korea (5%)
- Great Britain (4%)
#USA
Bring the manufacturing (jobs) home while negatively impacting China's economy.
forbes.com/sites/kenrapoz…
cebglobal.com/talentdaily/au…
irishtimes.com/business/econo…
Read 338 tweets
Given the political dynamics in #Italy, it is time to dust off my analysis from 2016 - 'Eurosceptics in Power' - on how Eurosceptic parties have influenced EU policy making both in the EP and when in nat. government

swp-berlin.org/en/publication…

Four points stand out in particular:
First, Italy is not the first instance of eurosceptic and/or populist parties entering national government.

Elite consensus on EU integration has been waning for a long time - reflecting the more sceptical attitude in many member states.
Second, in decision-making at the EU level they acted (largely) constructive. Voting data from the Council revealed no strong increase in vetos or 'no' votes after Eurosceptic parties entered nat. governments.

Exceptions to this are migration and institutional questions
Read 7 tweets

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