1/ It seems many outside Greece wonder why Tsipras can't win the moderates, the centrists, the liberals, the swing voters, and is therefore projected to lose big in tomorrow's elections. A case in point from the NYT below: 
2/ First, some of the reporting is inaccurate (see below). The reality is that Greece was actually growing when the elections that catapulted him in office were called. It was his govt which actually led the country back to the brink of bankruptcy AND a 2-year-long recession
3/ As for investors and `normality' returning, come on... Every single analyst note (from brokers, investment banks) doesn't attribute it to Tsipras, but to *investors actually pricing in* that Tsipras will be gone (plus the completely unrelated ECB policy guidance). For example:
4/ There are more inaccuracies out there. Truth is, Greece was improving in international competitiveness rankings before Tsipras came to power. It's been *slipping* since - from the WB's Doing Business report, to WEF's competitiveness index and recently on TI's Corruption Index
5/ And Greeks got the worst of both worlds: Data show that Tsipras tightened fiscal policy more than any creditor asked, more than Schäuble's wildest dreams, while the rebound after the 2015-16 recession that himself brought was consistently weaker than EU Commission projections
6/ On top of that, Greek progressives/liberals do blame the government for incompetence. Just one example: conditions in Greek migration camps are akin to systematic torture, and definitely worse than they were under any previous administration, despite ample EU funds this time:
7/ Then there is the mishandling of fires, floods, oil spills and virtually every other crisis, resulting into *hundreds of deaths*, and alienating any centrists who could be tempted to fall for Tsipras's alleged transformation. Well put by the FT: ft.com/content/02ddec…
8/ The final myth is that Tsipras took on vested interests, while others are servants to the establishment. The truth is that Tsipras enjoyed free holidays in tycoons' yachts, hanged out with oligarchs who made headlines on tax evasion,etc. Hence he's losing votes to left & right
9/ Crucially, there's so much bad blood between Tsipras and the center, which can't be washed even if he spends the rest of his life singing the Ode to Joy and campaigning for EU's expansion all the way to Japan. And it's not only because of the economic damage he caused in 2015
10/ Until 2015, Syriza was accusing pro-bailout EU backers not of being wrong, which would be entirely legitimate in democratic discourse, but of being `collaborators'. Himself has explicitly accused the Papademos govt of being servants to foreign interests, so traitors.
11/ So how do you expect these people to forget? Or to forget queuing in the scorching heat of the Athenian summer for 60 euros? The closed banks? The relegation of Greece from a developed to an emerging (to be precise: submerging) economy? It will take years for wounds to heal
12/ Tsipras survived this long because he served petty, sectoral interests here & there (including in Brussels). He will rely on those benefiting from such handouts to survive tomorrow's elections. Not on some remarkable transformation to a European Obama who can rally the center
13/ PS: Thomas Wieser, one of the most respected policy economists in the EU, has said the damage caused by Tsipras's first term is around 200 billion euros (I assume after a discount rate to project losses to the future). Tell me one PM anywhere in the EU who get away with that
PS 2: Please excuse typos, errors. iPhone not the ideal to write something coherent
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