If 🇵🇱 & 🇭🇺 don’t drop their veto by Dec. 7, then the EU will have to operate via monthly emergency budgets as of January. That would mean financial paralysis & the progressive suspension of all but essential spending, ⁦the Commission warned today bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The budget situation will get progressively worse, for reasons related also to Brexit, the Commission explained to EU ambassadors today. The French envoy warned the rule of law quarrel could signal a “fundamental rupture,” which raises questions about the very future of the EU.
There are procedural and legal reasons why this is the case, which can’t fit in a tweet, and don’t matter that much. The point is that the situation is serious. Spain’s envoy urged his peers to communicate to capitals how grave is the situation
There was also a fight in today’s COREPER between the Polish Ambassador and the council’s legal service for those who care for these things. The bottom line, however, is that Poland and Hungary showed no signs of willingness to compromise. And Dec. 7 is close...
Worth noting that even for the continuation of current programs which don’t expire, the monthly (and then annual) roll over of the current budget doesn’t suffice. These have been budgeted taking into account a huge net contributor (the U.K.). In the absence of a new budget deal..
...other net contributors can’t chip in to cover the gap. If I understand this right, this creates an annual shortfall of some 25 billion which will necessitate the deferral of payments for, say, cohesion policies.

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More from @nchrysoloras

28 Nov
Υπάρχει σοβαρό πρόβλημα με το Ταμείο Ανάκαμψης και τον Κοινοτικό Προϋπολογισμό. Χθες, στη συνεδρίαση της Επιτροπής Μονίμων Αντιπροσώπων, έγινε περιγραφή της κατάστασης με δραματικούς τόνους. Ελλάδα και Κύπρος (όπως και οι άλλες χώρες του Νότου) θα δεχθούν πλήγμα σε τρία μέτωπα:
Παρένθεση - η Επιτροπή Μονίμων Αντιπροσώπων στις Βρυξέλλες (COREPER) είναι το επίπεδο όπου τα κράτη-μέλη της ΕΕ λαμβάνουν το 98% των συλλογικών αποφάσεων τους. Οι υπουργοί *συνήθως* βάζουν μία τζίφρα σε αποφάσεις & κείμενα που έχουν ήδη συμφωνηθεί στο COREPER. Εξ ου και..
... ο Μόνιμος Αντιπρόσωπος κάθε κ-μ είναι η πιο σημαντική θέση της διοίκησης, πιο σημαντική από υπουργού. Τα κ-μ είναι ο βασικός νομοθέτης στην ΕΕ (σαν άνω Βουλή). Και οι αποφάσεις τους λαμβάνονται μέσω του COREPER. Κλείνει η παρένθεση. Χθες λοιπόν...
Read 16 tweets
26 Nov
In our Brussels Edition newsletter this morning: All eyes on Budapest, where the leaders of Poland and Hungary meet at 11 am CET, as pressure builds on them to relent on their opposition to the EU's budget and jointly financed stimulus: bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
One Polish official signaled that without any plan to draw up a counterproposal, the meeting is unlikely to provide the breakthrough many are waiting for. In Brussels, diplomats will decide on the next steps after today's meeting bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
One idea making the rounds in Brussels is to end the ongoing Article 7 rule of law procedure against Hungary and Poland (the Council concluding that there are no grounds for sanctions), in effect providing a clean slate before the new mechanism for the budget kicks in
Read 9 tweets
3 Oct
Δυο λόγια και στα ελληνικά για το τι συνέβη στη Σύνοδο Κορυφής: σε ό,τι αφορά την Κύπρο, δεν πήρε φυσικά αυτό που ζητάει εδώ και μήνες - τη διεύρυνση της λίστας κυρώσεων που έχουν επιβληθεί για τις δραστηριότητες της Τουρκίας στις επίμαχες περιοχές.
Η 🇨🇾 κατάφερε όμως να βγουν από το κείμενο διατυπώσεις που θεωρούσε προβληματικές, καθώς σύμφωνα με τη Λευκωσία φαινόταν να «υιοθετούν Τουρκικά επιχειρήματα». Το ότι μπήκαν στο αρχικό κείμενο όμως δείχνει ότι αυτά τα επιχειρήματα έχουν απήχηση στις Βρυξελλες
Στο τέλος βγήκαν αυτές οι διατυπώσεις (όπως μας εξήγησε κορυφαίος αξιωματούχος ΕΕ, το αρχικό κείμενο κατατέθηκε έτσι, ώστε να αλλάξει και να βγει από τη Σύνοδο η Κύπρος έχοντας κερδίσει κάτι), αλλά αυτό δεν σημαίνει και πολλά. Η ρίζα του προβλήματος θεωρείται το Κυπριακό
Read 18 tweets
2 Oct
1/ Some insights from senior EU official briefing after the #euco: if you read the entire statement #Turkish foreign ministry statement (official read it very carefully) it’s actually positive. There’s a sense that Turkey is willing to engage. Then the usual about all options etc
2/ Official appeared fully convinced that EU/Turkey relations won’t be normalised unless if the Cyprus issue is resolved. Said that a UN initiative is coming with considerable urgency after the election in the North. The EU will push in this direction.
3/ According to the official, no one wins everything in a negotiation and has the sense that Greece at least is fully aware of this. For example, the ICJ won’t give Greece everything that it wants and yet Greece is willing to go there.
Read 5 tweets
1 Oct
It's the first day of a two-day summit dedicated to conveying the image of a more assertive Europe. Here's what's going to happen: bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
Let's start with China. In a wording that echoes many of the concerns raised by the US, EU leaders will declare that the bloc needs to rebalance its relationship with China. Leaders will also give credit to themselves for Xi's carbon commitment. Our story: bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
On industrial policy, EU leaders will declare that strategic autonomy is a `key objective' of the Union. But what exactly does this mean? We have covered this issue extensively. See for example: bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
Read 10 tweets
30 Sep
So 🇭🇺, 🇵🇱, 🇸🇪, 🇫🇮, 🇩🇰, 🇳🇱 & 🇧🇪 opposed 🇩🇪’s compromise proposal on how to tie #NextGenerationEU & #MFF disbursements to the rule-of-law. 🇦🇹 & 🇱🇺 abstained. The proposal still got the required qualified majority. But in theory, any of these countries could still block the package:
Allowing the European Commission to raise the agreed debt (750 billion) needs unanimity. So the rule of law legislation only needs qualified majority, and 🇭🇺’s objections can be bypassed there, but if 🇭🇺 wants, it can block the “own resources” decision and blow the whole thing up
Plus we need to keep in mind that the EU Parliament also needs to give its backing to the package (by simple majority). Germany only got a mandate from Member states today to negotiate with the Parliament on the rule of law conditionality. It’s something, but not the end of it.
Read 5 tweets

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