Thread by @silvia_sb_

#THREAD to try to make sense of #Italy’s govt crisis: PM Conte will address the Senate at 15.00CET today. No vote of confidence is scheduled but it could be called by the League UNLESS PM uses the speech to announce his resignation. The latter is the most likely scenario. 1/n

If #Conte resigns Pres Mattarella will hear representatives from all parties & decide whether to: a) let PD/5Stars form a new govt; b) install a caretaker govt to pass the budget; c) call a snap election. Italy hasn’t seen a general election in the fall since 1919. 2/n

The reason for avoiding elections in the fall is the national #budget: deadline for approval is Dec 31. #Italy must send a draft of its 2020 one to @EU_Commission in early Oct. Running a campaign, an election and installing a new govt in the midst of it all is no joke. 3/n

@EU_Commission This is why many people believe #Salvini miscalculated when he decided to pull the plug on the govt right in the middle of the summer. The fact parliament had just gone into recess also gave Conte, 5Stars & PD time to plan their response. 4/n

@EU_Commission Which could end up being a surprising PD/5S tie up which ousts #Salvini’s #League from government (despite the fact its polling at 38% + won over 33% in the #EUelection making it Italy’s first party). #Italy is a parliamentary republic and this scenario is perfectly legal. 5/n

@EU_Commission Whether PM Conte could keep his job in this scenario is tbd but the key issue is the tie up itself. Some analysts believe it only makes sense if it lasts until the end of this term in 2023 and Berlusconi’s Forza Italia is part of it too. 6/n

@EU_Commission But the PD (read: former PM #Renzi and his entourage) & Berlusconi are the 5Stars’ sworn enemies and the main reasons for which the antiestablishment party became so popular across the country. Salvini has already accused them of wanting this fudge only to save their jobs. 7/n

@EU_Commission To be sure, the 5S would see their seats halved in a snap election. And the PD is divided between the new secretary #Zingaretti's camp and Renzi’s one so many of the current lawmakers risk being replaced in a snap election. Both parties need to buy time. 8/n

@EU_Commission Yet they are all pitching this potential tie up as a way to avoid #Italy drifting to the far-right. In a snap election Italy would surely get a right-wing govt led by Salvini possibly supported by the far-right Fratelli d’Italia + pieces of Forza Italia. 9/n

@EU_Commission “We must avoid Italy drifting toward Orban &Putin,” is the PD's main argument. Former PM Prodi said its worth trying to form a #vonderleyen govt with all the parties that voted for her in the EU parliament. But many believe this option would further embolden Salvini. 10/n

@EU_Commission #Salvini has already started campaigning against the PD/5S tie up saying it’s a power grab based on both parties’ fear of #democracy. 5Stars officials have widely confirmed to reporters they are against elections but they are divided on the way forward. 11/n

@EU_Commission After #Conte’s speech the ball will be in Mattarella’s camp. His priority is safeguarding public finances but has no intention of appoving a fudge. He’ll want to see parties come up with a credible political plan if they want to form a new govt. Whether its realistic is tbd 12/n

@EU_Commission Bottom line: #Salvini badly miscalculated the timing of this crisis & has not managed it well during the past 12days. Likelihood of a snap election is low and there is a material possibility he’ll be ousted from govt despite his enormous popularity. Incredible stuff. 13/13