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Garrett Johnson Profile picture
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26 Aug 19, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Does behavioral targeting create value? Now, we have 5 academic & industry (grey) studies that quantify how much value is lost without cookies. The loss estimates are: 65%, >66%, 52%, 4%, & 52%. I summarize the studies below. Image
View the literature review slide & more related literature here: docs.google.com/presentation/d…
A new image with some small updates since some are using this elsewhere. Image
Added the CMA (UK regulator) report revisiting the Google study and positing an even higher 70% (upper bound) revenue loss without cookies. Image

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More from @garjoh_canuck

Garrett Johnson Profile picture
21 Oct 20
Today, I spoke at the W3C improving web advertising business group about the economics of digital ad identity. Thread🧵 on some takeaways on the future of digital ads. 1/
Cross-site identity (via cookies) allows for behavioral targeting. Importantly, identity allows for less sexy but *critical* functions like ad frequency capping, ad effectiveness measurement & attribution—all at scale. 2/
What is the value of cookies? In the status quo, most studies and data agree that cookies create value: ads get 50-70% less revenue without cookies. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Garrett Johnson Profile picture
21 Apr 20
🔥👿🔥 New working paper alert! 🔥👿🔥
"Inferno: A guide to field experiments in online display advertising"
ssrn.com/abstract=35813…

THREAD: This guide reviews challenges & solutions from a decade of research.
#marketingacad #econtwitter #fieldexperiments Image
“Abandon all hope, ye who enter here” - Dante’s Inferno👿
Online display ad experiments are hell. They are also a proving ground for field experimenters, & have much to teach us. The guide is organized into the nine 9 circles of 🔥hell🔥 as applied to #displayad #fieldexperiments Image
🔥Circle 1🔥 Display ad effects are so small🤏 that observational methods fail🤦‍♀️. Ad effects explain so little variation in ad outcomes, that they get swamped🌊 by unobserved confounds. Like Dante entering the inferno👿, we resign ourselves to the necessity of experiments.😭😭 Image
Read 11 tweets
Garrett Johnson Profile picture
12 Nov 19
The @guardian featured an opinion piece about how the #GDPR is failing to protect privacy.
The piece serves as an unintentional object lesson of the same. THREAD 1/
theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Here is the excerpt where the author decries prevailing opt-out practices alongside the Guardian’s consent menu doing the same.
Note: The @ICOnews states that this menu is not #GDPR compliant (“NO" should be as easy as "YES"). 2/
When I VPN as a French user The Guardian interacts with 42 third party domains (listed below) and loads 122 third party cookies.
Note: All this arises without my opt-in consent. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Garrett Johnson Profile picture
30 Oct 19
🚨New working paper alert!🚨
THREAD: Post-#GDPR, website use of web tech vendors falls 15% but relative concentration increases 17%.

"Privacy & market concentration: Intended & unintended consequences of the GDPR” w/ Scott Shriver
ssrn.com/abstract=34776…
(Image: Digiday) 1/ Image
Privacy and competition top today’s policy agenda—particularly in web tech which relies on permissive privacy practices and where big companies like Google & Facebook have large market share.

But, could #privacy policy actually reduce #competition ? 2/ Image
How? Large firms could have more resources to comply with the law or leverage firm recognition to better obtain consumer consent. We add that potential B2B partners could favor large firms if 1) they offer a superior product; or 2) they better comply with the law. 3/
Read 14 tweets
Garrett Johnson Profile picture
28 Aug 19
Google just released a more details about the study showing *publisher revenue* falls 52% without a cookie. They run an experiment disabling cookies for a random sample of users on Google Ad Manager's top 500 publishers in terms of programmatic revenue. 1/
services.google.com/fh/files/misc/…
Now, we see that results vary by publisher (below). While the average publisher’s revenue falls by 52%, the median is 64%. Very few publishers see a loss less than 20% while a large number experience losses exceeding 70% (!). 2/
Despite precise aggregate estimates (95% CI <1%), the individual site estimates are statistically imprecise for smaller sites. Focusing on the top 200 sites reveals less dispersion. Now, only a 1 of 200 sites loses less than 10% of revenue. 3/
Read 5 tweets

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