1) Dichotomy between FDX guidance cut and their “whistling past the graveyard” commentary vs. TSM being on allocation at 7 nm and the SOX at all time highs makes me believe all the commentary/rumors around Huawei broadly double ordering semiconductors.
2) And it would be logical for Huawei to have*years* of semi inventory stockpiled in anticipation of worst case scenarios to give China time to develop a domestic semi industry (although how they do this without US equipment/EDA co’s is difficult to understand).
3) Although important to note that semiconductor industry has really improved over the last 20 years via consolidation into a series of duopolies and oligopolies and industry is much better at managing both inventory and capacity cycles. But FDX vs. SOX still interesting.
4) Sidenote – strange to me that so many are excited about 5G. This is the least important wireless equipment upgrade cycle in history. 3G was foundational and enabled mobile data. 4G enabled consumers to stream 4K video. 5G is much less relevant to consumer UX.
5) Also fascinating how trading dynamics in semiconductor stocks have changed in the 20 years I’ve been investing in them – they have moved from trading coincident with fundamentals to anticipatory to the second derivative of anticipatory.
