Omer Carmi Profile picture
Sep 23, 2019 15 tweets 10 min read Read on X
#Nasrallah: “the Leader has a deep insight and understanding of the future. I believe that his accurate perception of the future is part of his unique abilities, derived from his deep faith in, submission to, and relationship with God, rather than having an only rational aspect”
#Nasrallah: “we thought that the #Israeli-#Syrian negotiations would result in an agreement (#Rabin-#Assad). We went to see the Leader.. While all Iranian officials believed that the talks were over, he said: "..I tell you this will not happen, and there will be no peace treaty”
#Nasrallah: “After Rabin, Shimon Peres was elected prime minister of the Zionist Regime. He had a weak personality, because he was not perceived by Israelis, in terms of historical and military background as well as trustworthiness, as competent as Rabin”
#Nasrallah: “Let’s talk about the Deal of the Century. Recently, #Kushner explicitly said that Jerusalem is for #Israel and that major Zionist settlements in the West Bank would be part of the occupied territories.. there is basically no discussion of a two-state solution”
#Nasrallah: “the existence, survival, power and promotion of #Israel—either through peaceful or non-peaceful means— is a major security threat for all the countries in the region, from #Iran to Pakistan, and even for the countries of Central Asia and Turkey”
#Nasrallah: “#Israel will not withdraw from the ‘Nile-to-Euphrates’ goal and this goal has always been presented as a Torah dream Israel has been trying to realize. Israel is a military base in the region that serves the interests of the United States”
#Nasrallah: “the strategy emphasized by Imam Khomeini was that if we want to have a safe region, live in peace, defend our national sovereignty and lands.. none of them is possible to achieve as long as there is an #Israeli entity”
#Nasrallah: “Today, there is no question that Ayatollah #Khamenei bears the flag of the #Palestinian cause. Today, no one doubts that the #Iran, with its determination, will and power, is the vanguard and the main nucleus and main pivot that steers the Resistance movement.”
#Nasrallah: “In 2000, a few months before #Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon, we traveled to Tehran to meet with Ayatollah #Khamenei. We—that is the Hezbollah council—were accompanied by the military commanders of the Resistance for the first time. Nearly 50 commanders“.
#Nasrallah: “We said to the Leader: ‘It is unlikely that #Israel will withdraw from Lebanon’.. It was then that the Leader stated: "I recommend you to seriously assume that Israel will leave Lebanon and you will be victorious. Continue your activities based on this assumption”
#Nasrallah: “We spoke [with Khamenei in 2000] and he said: ‘If the Palestinians, the Resistance in Lebanon, and the nations of the region perform their duties appropriately, then certainly #Israel cannot last for a long time." He mentioned something less than 25 years.”
#Nasrallah: “when I heard the Leader’s 25 years remark, I concluded that he has given #Israel extra time.. his statement on Israel is absolutely serious.. we believe that the Leader is a person endorsed by Allah, and that what he states sometimes emerge from some other source”
#Nasrallah: “(the elimination of Israel) will occur, but the realization of it would happen under certain conditions..if we resist and continue on the path we have taken, factual and field conditions indicate that Israel won’t be able to remain in the region in the next 25 years”
#Nasrallah: “We have done a lot of research and studies on the #Israeli regime; trying to find answers for the following questions: what are its foundations? What are its strengths and weaknesses? the likelihood of the collapse of this regime is very high”
#Nasrallah: “#Israel has many lethal weaknesses.. I am among those who strongly believe in the new generation and God willing, this generation will enter Palestine and perform prayers in Quds, and there will be no Israel.”

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More from @CarmiOmer

Jan 14, 2021
Khamenei’s office issues a series of interviews with members of the “JCPOA Monitoring Council” discussing Khamenei’s guidelines.

The council is composed of conservatives and “moderates”, with members like Rouhani, Larijani, Zarif, Salehi, Jalili, Kharazi, Velayati & Ghalibaf Image
The interviews were held in the context of Khamenei’s last speech, and are clearly meant to show that the regime is in full consensus with Khamenei’s line of thought — the kind of “rallying around the flag” rhetoric Tehran has taken many times in 2003-05 (per Rouhani’s memoirs) Image
What do these interviews try to show?

1 - The notion that Iran is in “no hurry” for the US to return to the JCPOA. Jalili & Velayati noted that if sanctions aren’t lifted, Iran won’t rush into a deal & Kharazi explained that Iran must first see how the Biden admin will act
Read 12 tweets
Sep 3, 2020
Quick #Iran Elections thought: 9 months before the ballots, newspapers are filled with an increasing number of IRGC-related hardliners who may run (e.g. Ghalibaf, Dehghan, Ghasemi, Fattah etc.). Yet so far no strong candidate on the other side of the political map has emerged
1/4
Indeed #Iran’s pendulum politics seem to shift to the hardline side. Traditional conservatives & reformists will have hard choices to take if they want to counter this trend. They would prob have to reach a compromise/ZOPA candidate if they want to win elections
2/4
According to many, former Majles Speaker Ali #Larijani is an option. While his family’s power diminished over the last years (his brothers were removed from their positions), I wouldn’t disregard him. Remember that #Rouhani won elections after a decade in political wilderness
3/4
Read 4 tweets
Aug 21, 2020
Thread 👇
Whatever shape the Snapback clash may take, Iran’s reaction is becoming clearer. Instead of playing hardball, it embraced a cautious approach of disregarding the US threat & exploiting the crisis for political gains

My latest @WashInstitute washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…
1/10
Over the past few months, Tehran has warned that reimposing UN sanctions might push it to take harsh steps in response. Yet more recent statements indicate that the regime is poised to follow its frequent pattern of taking a more calculated nuclear approach in the end.
2/10
The Majles National Security & FP Committee warned that if snapback is triggered, AEOI should immediately “return all nuclear activity to the level before JCPOA”. The statement then echoed the same steps Iran threatened to take in the past (increasing # & % of enrichment)
3/10
Read 10 tweets
Jun 19, 2020
A few thoughts re @iaeaorg decision and the potential for "dynamics of escalation".
Iran had always had blind-spots in assessing how others would react to its actions. The 2005 nuclear crisis and the storming of the UK embassy in 2012 are great example of strategic fallacies 1/5
Decision makers in Iran likely see today's events as part of a broader US attempt to extend the arms embargo. The regime has a dilemma - it doesn't want to risk an escalation at its current situation (Covid, Economy, Protests), yet wants to deter US from pursuing this path 2/5
Now comes the tricky part - does the strategic planners in Tehran believe that there is an equilibrium in which Iran reacts in a "proportionate" way, holding true to its implicit threats to hinder the cooperation with the IAEA, but still doesn't risk broader escalation? 3/5
Read 5 tweets
Apr 17, 2020
Since 2012, Tehran has suggested it may need to produce nuclear-fueled ships and submarines because sanctions have forced its navy to look for alternative fuel sources. 4/6 navies in the world that possess nuclear propulsion reactors use high enriched Uranium 1/4
In 2018, Tehran reemphasized the project in the wake of US pressures, taking a step forward by alerting the IAEA of its decision “to construct naval nuclear propulsion in the future.” Iran told the agency that no facility will be involved in the project for the next 5 years 2/4
Yet Tehran uses this project from time to time to threaten the West, hoping to deter it from increasing pressures. Only last week did the AEOI spox announced an advancement in the project, without shading more light on this subject. Yesterday the navy chief joined the choir 3/4
Read 4 tweets
Apr 14, 2020
Thread👇:
How does the #Coronavirus outbreak in Iran affects the regime's attention to its nuclear program? What can we learn from Iran's dull nuclear holiday, and how should the Intl. community deter Iran from any cheater?

Read my latest @WashInstitute washin.st/34yh2MH
Iran's Nuclear holiday is an opp for the regime to unveil (exaggerated) advancements in its nuke program. In light of #Coronavirus the festival was postponed this year, a decision that was probably influenced by the high infection rate among top officials
washin.st/34yh2MH
The AEOI announced “122 nuke achievements” (to be unveiled later this year), but the leadership doesn't seem to be focused on the nuke program. Rouhani didn't issue a statement re the holiday, and Khamenei didn't reference the program in his Nowruz speech
washin.st/34yh2MH
Read 13 tweets

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