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Gregory Waters Profile picture
@GregoryPWaters
Oct 13, 2019 • 4 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
Reports that #Russia & #Damascus will take #Manbij

Almost certainly confirmed & is easy enough, Russian-trained & equipped #SAA units have been stations just outside Manbij for almost a year now
#1st_Division also sent some reinforcements to #Qamishlo airport yesterday. Not originally planning for today's events but they're there now.
It's important to recognize that #Assad does not have the resources to govern the territory of #Rojava on his own. The #SAA is stretched thin enough dealing with an insurgency in #Daraa & keeping pressure on #Idlib & there are near daily #ISIS attacks in central #Syria...
"Effective" governing & anti-ISIS ops in NE Syria will rely on cooperation b/w #Assad & the #SDF (or components of it)

Does anyone have much faith in Assad allowing an opposition faction to retain that much power? Not to mention the personal animosity many SAA commanders hold.

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More from @GregoryPWaters

Gregory Waters Profile picture
Nov 23, 2025
A thread on Homs today:

1) The Bedouin couple that was murdered lived on the edge of Mouhajireen neighborhood, they had lived there for 30 years and were known by everyone. Of course their killing was intended to cause this chaos
2) they were from the Beni Khaled tribe, who responded by storming the mostly Alawi Mouhajireen neighborhood, vandalizing homes and potentially killing two people (unconfirmed as far as I know).

Around 1:20pm armed convoys arrived in central Homs shooting in the air.
3) At this point Zahraa & Abbasiyah neighborhoods were locked down (both are adjacent to Mouhajireen). General security deployed on all main entrances and were turning cars away

The neighborhoods were already ghost towns with almost every shop closed and streets empty
Read 10 tweets
Gregory Waters Profile picture
Feb 19, 2025
Finished 3 weeks across Syria and I’m far more pessimistic now. In December I was confident the security concerns were misplaced & was largely right

Now the economic crisis has replaced immediate sec issues, w/ many losing patience despite massive hurdles facing the government Image
2) The economy is testing every Syrian and inhibiting needed reforms/unification efforts

Alawite communities seem to think they are uniquely affected by economy, fueling massive fears of being targeted & marginalized more broadly
3) Much of this goes back to disbanding the security forces w/out any follow up plan. The explicit demands of the coast are to rehire some men into local police, but the underlying fear is that Alawites will never be allowed part of the govt again & will be cut from rest of Syria Image
Read 11 tweets
Gregory Waters Profile picture
Dec 13, 2024
Yesterday two Alawite brothers were murdered in an armed robbery of their house in #Latakia. The intruders claimed they were part of HTS. Local leaders called on HTS to take revenge & create joint committee.

HTS visited village w/ Alawite sheikh same day & promised swift action Image
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Request for joint security committees of HTS & local men across Alawite communities is a good step, and local pages seem optimistic that this may be introduced soon. Local pages also deny rumors that civilians have fled their homes out fear

Murdered brothers Muhamad & Ahmed Taha Image
On December 16 three brothers went to the Homs City reconciliation center. Men claiming to be from HTS stopped them on the way, taking the two ex-officers in their car. Their bodies found next day in Wa'er. Story is widely spread by ex-army as evidence they should not reconcile Image
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Read 8 tweets
Gregory Waters Profile picture
Dec 12, 2024
Only a handful of experts have done fieldwork on HTS before this week. People like @dkhalifa @jeromedrev are extremely well respected for their professional & nuanced analysis on the group & have written extensively on this issue. I encourage reading their well-researched takes
Four years ago(!) a transcript from @dkhalifa's interview with Jolani. Dareen has been on the record about his shift - demonstrated in very clear *actions* - over the years based on engaging with both HTS and the people they ruled in Idlib
crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…
2021. @jeromedrev and @patrickhaenni write an extremely rich report on the evolution of HTS's approach to rule and ideology within the context of a weakened revolution. Based on a decade of actual fieldwork
cadmus.eui.eu/handle/1814/69…
Read 6 tweets
Gregory Waters Profile picture
Dec 11, 2024
Yesterday Mil Operations leaders met with Alawite notables in #Latakia. Hassan Soufan (ex-Ahrar) is now Mil Commander of the Coast.

An Alawite professor from Latakia University gave an overview:
"Sheikh Abu Hassan & Sheikh Hassan spoke with complete transparency ..."
1) "priority is to impose security & safety... strictly forbidden to attack any person under the pretext of sectarianism ... attack private & public property ... enter or search homes except in special cases & by the uniformed General Security after showing their identities" Image
2) "strictly forbidden to shoot, anyone who violates the law will be arrested - the failure to hold anyone accountable now is due to lack of a sufficient number of military operations personnel, and these matters will be addressed as soon as possible, perhaps within a few hours." Image
Read 8 tweets
Gregory Waters Profile picture
Nov 27, 2024
Capture of Ourm al-Sughra is an important step towards capturing 46th Reg Base, which will be crucial for solidifying gains and freeing up resources for the eastern axes.
Now announcing full capture of the base, a big step towards securing the southern flank of this advance
Indications the opposition has captured Kafr Naha now, which would solidify the line south from Anjara Image
Read 77 tweets

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