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Gregory Waters Profile picture
@GregoryPWaters
Oct 13, 2019 • 4 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
Reports that #Russia & #Damascus will take #Manbij

Almost certainly confirmed & is easy enough, Russian-trained & equipped #SAA units have been stations just outside Manbij for almost a year now
#1st_Division also sent some reinforcements to #Qamishlo airport yesterday. Not originally planning for today's events but they're there now.
It's important to recognize that #Assad does not have the resources to govern the territory of #Rojava on his own. The #SAA is stretched thin enough dealing with an insurgency in #Daraa & keeping pressure on #Idlib & there are near daily #ISIS attacks in central #Syria...
"Effective" governing & anti-ISIS ops in NE Syria will rely on cooperation b/w #Assad & the #SDF (or components of it)

Does anyone have much faith in Assad allowing an opposition faction to retain that much power? Not to mention the personal animosity many SAA commanders hold.

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More from @GregoryPWaters

Gregory Waters Profile picture
Dec 13, 2024
Yesterday two Alawite brothers were murdered in an armed robbery of their house in #Latakia. The intruders claimed they were part of HTS. Local leaders called on HTS to take revenge & create joint committee.

HTS visited village w/ Alawite sheikh same day & promised swift action Image
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Request for joint security committees of HTS & local men across Alawite communities is a good step, and local pages seem optimistic that this may be introduced soon. Local pages also deny rumors that civilians have fled their homes out fear

Murdered brothers Muhamad & Ahmed Taha Image
On December 16 three brothers went to the Homs City reconciliation center. Men claiming to be from HTS stopped them on the way, taking the two ex-officers in their car. Their bodies found next day in Wa'er. Story is widely spread by ex-army as evidence they should not reconcile Image
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Read 8 tweets
Gregory Waters Profile picture
Dec 11, 2024
Yesterday Mil Operations leaders met with Alawite notables in #Latakia. Hassan Soufan (ex-Ahrar) is now Mil Commander of the Coast.

An Alawite professor from Latakia University gave an overview:
"Sheikh Abu Hassan & Sheikh Hassan spoke with complete transparency ..."
1) "priority is to impose security & safety... strictly forbidden to attack any person under the pretext of sectarianism ... attack private & public property ... enter or search homes except in special cases & by the uniformed General Security after showing their identities" Image
2) "strictly forbidden to shoot, anyone who violates the law will be arrested - the failure to hold anyone accountable now is due to lack of a sufficient number of military operations personnel, and these matters will be addressed as soon as possible, perhaps within a few hours." Image
Read 8 tweets
Gregory Waters Profile picture
Nov 27, 2024
Capture of Ourm al-Sughra is an important step towards capturing 46th Reg Base, which will be crucial for solidifying gains and freeing up resources for the eastern axes.
Now announcing full capture of the base, a big step towards securing the southern flank of this advance
Indications the opposition has captured Kafr Naha now, which would solidify the line south from Anjara Image
Read 77 tweets
Gregory Waters Profile picture
Nov 1, 2021
Lots of hype for an imminent Turkish offensive in NES that seems largely divorced from reality. Reminds me of the cycles of "new Idlib operation" that are based on flimsy evidence.

Struggle to see why this would happen after yesterday's at least not-negative Biden/Erdogan summit
From the Turkish perspective, their big complaint has been the PKK commanders embedded in NES and they seem quite content with their recent policy of droning these commanders. Meanwhile their military is stretched thin with overseas deployments right now
Erdogan is also dealing with an economic crisis amid a surging opposition that is increasingly vocal in their opposition to Syria ops. It isn't like past years where he can use an offensive to "distract" voters. An op now with dead TSK would likely only weaken him in the polls
Read 11 tweets
Gregory Waters Profile picture
Sep 20, 2021
This horrible article is a great example of "analysts" manipulating "data" to fit a policy proposal and narrative they decided upon before researching.
washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…
The moment you rely on ACLED for Syria your evidence is worthless. There were *at least* 248 anti-regime attacks this year, the vast majority targeting regime and allies. Even when ACLED under-counts attacks it absurdly inflates casualty numbers (no numbers in pic 2 are right)
These pieces by people who don't actually follow the central Syria insurgency continue to ignore the major changes that have occurred since it became "mainstream" late last year. Spring & Summer saw significant reductions to ISIS capabilities that are only just now being reversed
Read 6 tweets
Gregory Waters Profile picture
Oct 9, 2019
Almost daily #ISIS raids in central Syria now.

Three days ago Hani Hassan disappeared somewhere between #DeirEzZor & #Bukamal.

Hani was a member of the #SAA's 17th Division, 10th Reserve Regiment & comes from the largely Alawite village of Na'arah #Homs
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Member of the 137th Artillery Regiment (claimed 17th Division although the unit is historically 7th Division) killed in Harbisha #DeirEzzor just east of #Sukhna #Homs wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=3… Image
Reports of clashes between #SAA & #ISIS in central #Syria northeast of #Sukhna #Homs as govt forces intercepted an ISIS convoy (loyalist claim) Image
Read 376 tweets

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