Thread by @woodstockjag

There are, as far as I can see, five plausible outcomes following Saturday's proceedings in Parliament.

Scenario (a) the Commons simply backs the Government's deal

This involves MPs first rejecting the Letwin amendment, then passing the original motion unamended. (1/x)

It is then up to the Government to decide how quickly to bring in the Withdrawal Agreement Bill. They might try to do it very quickly (to avoid in practice needing to ask for a "technical" extension) or they might ask for one and do things a bit more slowly (2/x)

Scenario (b) the Commons legally rejects the deal (to get an extension) but indicates a majority would support the deal if asked to pass the Withdrawal Agreement Bill

This involves MPs passing Letwin's amendment, then passing the main motion as amended. (3/x)

In this scenario, the Gov't would need to set out why it intends to proceed to the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, and we would need to look closely to what the European Council says in response to the extension request. Cannot take for granted a 3-month extension would follow. (4/x)

Scenario (c) the Commons legally and politically rejects the deal (forcing a Benn Act extension request and discouraging the Gov't from trying to legislate for the deal)

This involves either passing or not passing the Letwin amendment, but then not adopting a resolution (5/x)

In this scenario, the Commons maths would suggest that the Withdrawal Agreement Bill would (be likely to) fail in a vote on its Second Reading. The Government would have to seek the Benn Act extension, but it would be less clear what it was "for" in practice. (6/x)

Scenario (d) as with Scenario (c) but the Government then asks the House to approve leaving without a deal and the Commons agrees to that.

This seems unlikely (given the Benn Act passed at all) but cannot be ruled out. 2nd motion on the Order Paper would allow it to happen (7/x)

Scenario (e) is as with Scenario (c) except the Government's "no deal approval" motion is amended (e.g.) for a second referendum amendment.

Some MPs might say "we reject the deal, but, you know it *would* get our support if you make it subject to a referendum" (8/x)

Such a proposal might have better prospects of success if the House has already decided that it is not prepared to approve the PM's deal without a referendum. However, a vote of this kind would only take place if the Government moves the motion for the second debate. (9/x)

Of course, I express no view on the merits of any of these Scenarios. But I think far more attention will be paid to Scenarios (a) and (b), and possibly (c).

I set out most of the expected process for tomorrow in this @commonslibrary Insight commonslibrary.parliament.uk/parliament-and… (10/10)