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, 3 tweets, 1 min read
💥💥💥ELECTION ALERT💥💥💥

The PM has confirmed it is his inetention to seek a dissolution of Parliament, via the Fixed Term Parliaments Act on Monday, for an election on December 12th.

Would be the first December election since 1923.
Expect Labour will insist on legal guarantees the govt cannot change the date of the election til after Jan 31st.
I imagine we can deduce from this that the French have told Downing St the extension will be to Jan 31st.
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More from @lewis_goodall see all

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Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall
Interesting. Govt lukewarm response to this implies they’re perhaps not as keen on an election as they’ve said. Implies govt expected rejection of election offer and was really about distracting from Oct 31st promise broken/dividing Lab/giving EU excuse to offer short extension.
Basically has their bluff been called? It is true to say Morgan doesn’t entirely rule out the offer.
Either way, it’s a smart move. Largely puts the heat back on Johnson (though Lab position still difficult). Also sends strong signal to the EU that Parliament is willing to do something to resolve impasse and strengthens voices of those like Tusk arguing for Jan 31st extension.
Read 4 tweets
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Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall
So with DUP potentially onboard for an election how many extra MPs would the govt need?

434 required

Cons (288) + DUP (10)= needs 136 Labour

If add SNP (35)= need 101 Lab

If add Lib Dem (19)= need 82 Lab

If add Plaid (4)= need 78 Lab

If add a dozen former Tories= 66 Lab
It’s a tall order. If other opposition parties come on board than Corbyn, even with PLP resistance, could get the votes. But prob would require at least the SNP to move. Possible you might be able to push former Tories number up too if Cons dangle the restoration of the whip.
Though bigger significance of DUP convergence to an election is greater viability for a “one line bill” specifying date of election which requires only a simple majority. Though, question is, what do they want in return?
Read 3 tweets
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Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall
Arlene Foster: “Without change, we will not vote for the Prime Minister’s agreement...the PM says there won’t be checks. Now we’re told there will be. We’ve been clear with the govt and honest throughout this process. We expect the same in return.” #DUP19
“Our votes matter. And they will continue to matter in the coming days.”
Foster seems to imply the DUP will support an election...
Read 6 tweets

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Graeme Cowie
@woodstockjag
A General Election on Monday 9 December would require dissolution on Friday 1 November (unless election period or dissolution also altered by legislation) meaning a Bill would need Royal Assent by Thursday 31 October.

Such a Bill also cannot be debated until Tuesday 29 October.
One presumes the core disagreement about the date (9th vs 12th) is therefore actually about dissolution. GE on 12th would give Parliament 5 current sitting/8 calendar days to pass the WAB (assuming extension and timetable agreed Monday) whereas 9th only Tuesday/Wednesday left.
There is a bit of a “chicken and egg” scenario going on at the moment where it appears EU’s choice of 14-day v 3-month extension depends on whether it’s for the Bill or for a GE, but there isn’t agreement among MPs which path to take until they know what length the extension is.
Read 6 tweets
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Michael Savage
@michaelsavage
🚨 NEW: A new plan tonight to offer Boris Johnson the pre-Christmas election he craves. 🚨

The Lib Dems have drawn up a bill that would allow Johnson to secure a December election with a simple majority of MPs. Crucially, the SNP will back it.

THREAD. 1/6
Their plan: a bill that amends the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, fixing an election for Monday December 9.

It also states that the plan is cancelled should the EU only offer a short Brexit extension, to safeguard against no deal.

2/6
Their plan would be that the bill, if adopted by Johnson, could be taken through parliament on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday.

Parliament dissolves next Monday. Election December 9. Happy days.

3/6
Read 8 tweets
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Nicholas Guyatt
@NicholasGuyatt
Parliament has been prorogued, the benches are empty, and Boris Johnson finally has a chance to rule without scrutiny from MPs. The perfect time for a thread about constitutional crisis.
The term is everywhere these days - Reuters have even done a helpful guide reaching back to Magna Carta. For once I think the circumstances probably justify the hyperbole. What’s the problem and how did we get here? uk.reuters.com/article/uk-bri…
The political problem is Brexit. The constitutional problem is the relationship between the executive, legislature & public. (Which is why last night's Commons debate was so fractious.) There’s an internal and external dimension to this — let’s start with the internal.
Read 37 tweets
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Chris White
@cgwOMT
The PM wants an election, but he can't get one. As long as the Opposition stay united, the timing of any poll is entirely in their hands, and they could even force him to request an extension, something he'd rather 'die in a ditch' than do.

A thread explaining why👇
In 2011 Parliament passed the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act (FTPA). This stripped the PM of being able to call an election when he wants, meaning there are now 3 routes to a GE:
1⃣ 2/3rds of MPs vote for an early election (FTPA)
2⃣ Vote of No Confidence (VONC) (FTPA)
3⃣ Change FTPA
Let's start with 2/3rds super-majority provided for in FTPA.
On Wednesday the Govt tried a 2/3 vote and 'won' by 298 votes to 56.

But the FTPA states that 434 MPs - 2/3rds of all MPs in the Commons - need to vote in favour, so it failed.

Read 14 tweets
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Joshua Rozenberg
@JoshuaRozenberg
Good morning from R (Miller) v Prime Minister, in the High Court of England and Wales (Divisional Court). Gina Miller represented by Lord Pannick QC. PM represented by Sir David Eadie QC. Judges are Lord Burnett CJ, Sir Terence Etherton MR, Dame Victoria Sharp President QBD.
Lady Chakrabarti (intervener) is in court. Sir John Major (intervener) is not. All interveners are making written submissions only.
Lord Pannick opens the proceedings with a bon mot about his junior counsel, Warren Fitt.
Read 64 tweets
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Tim Hogan
@TimInHonolulu
1. Confusing what's teed up for Wednesday in Parliament. Appears the Fixed Term Parliaments Act needs a 2/3 majority to set nationwide election likely on Oct 15. Also appears they can do a straight majority simple vote to put on a national election, likely on the same date.
2. Labour leader @jeremycorbyn is first seeking a vote on a bill to stop any no-deal Brexit going forward. Tory commentators say that will kill Brexit. Tories say it will give EU control over Brexit. Don't these folks know that Brexit was a Kremlin op? I think it may be time
3. for Tories just like Trump to go back to Russia. Somehow you had to know that like in the US the people who have been waiving the flag and claiming ultra-patriotism would all turn out to be pro-Kremlin quislings.
Read 3 tweets

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